Hostname: page-component-7bb8b95d7b-2h6rp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-09-18T12:29:21.158Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

A Nonparametric Distribution-Free Test for Serial Independence in Stock Returns: A. Correction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2009

Abstract

A fundamental statistical test of serial independence developed by Ashley and Patterson (1986) to examine a possible form of serial dependence in daily stock returns is shown to be improperly constructed. As a consequence, the significance probabilities that they obtain are overstated. This paper presents a corrected version of their test. The test statistic obtained after correction is shown to possess the same limiting distribution as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistic. Applying the corrected test procedure to data identical to that used by Ashley and Patterson, we find that their original null hypothesis can no longer be rejected at conventional significance levels.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © School of Business Administration, University of Washington 1990

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ashley, R. A., and Patterson, D. M.. “A Nonparametric Distribution-Free Test for Serial Independence in Stock Returns.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 21 (06 1986), 221227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doob, J. L.Heuristic Approach to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Theorems.” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 20 (1949), 393403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E., and French, K.. “Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices.” Journal of Political Economy, 96 (04 1988), 246273.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feller, W.An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Volume II. New York: John Wiley & Sons (1971).Google Scholar
Hajek, J., and Sidak, Z.. Theory of Rank Tests. New York: Academic Press (1967).Google Scholar
Lehman, E. L.Nonparametrics: Statistical Methods Based on Ranks. Oakland, CA: Holden-Day, Inc. (1975).Google Scholar
Lo, A., and MacKinlay, A. C.. “Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test.” The Review of Financial Studies, 1 (Spring 1988), 4166.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pearson, E. S., and Hartley, H. O.. Biometrika Tables for Statisticians. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press (1972).Google Scholar
Poterba, J., and Summers, L.. “Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications.” Journal of Financial Economics, 22 (10 1988), 2760.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ross, S. M.Stochastic Processes. New York: John Wiley & Sons (1983).Google Scholar