This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions. Bankers' qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, self-reported changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite this action, aggregates of bankers' qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and forecast better than naïve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting land values.

U.S. rice industry producers face pressure from consumers, suppliers, and the government to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with rice (Oryza sativa L.) production. Arkansas rice cultivar-specific net GHG emissions information allows models of paddy rice emissions. Baseline levels of profit, yield variance, and GHG emissions are established using extension data. Varietal selection is then optimized to maximize profits and minimize GHG emissions, both constrained and unconstrained by baseline yield variance. Carbon abatement functions are estimated to examine the effects of hypothetical carbon prices on varietal selection.

Why is it that we care about citation indices? Like proverbial silverbackgorillas, we beat our chests at every change in our “h-index” or gruntloudly at every e-mail alert of a new citation to our papers. What does itall really mean though? Is there some deeper significance to a citationindex? Does having a journal in the index enhance its own or sponsoringassociation's reputation? Inquiring minds want to know.

Despite recent advances in measuring and compensating for environmentaldamages, several challenges remain. States have a vested interest inclaiming economic damages, especially those that reduce the value ofinvestments. Because place-brand values are considered personal property,Florida may seek additional compensation from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Policy analysis is complicated by the myriad of benefits and costs generatedby the use of natural resources. This study develops three benefits thatmust be considered in the granting of a consumptive use permit for waterfiled by Adena Springs Ranch, east of Ocala, Florida. This ranch is hopingto expand into grass-fat beef; but to do so, it needs additional water forirrigation. Specifically, our analysis considers the potential gain from theranch, the potential negative effect on existing permit holders andenvironmental uses of water, and the possible positive value generated bythe increased surface flow for other recreational users in eastern MarionCounty.

This article analyzes the impact of removing the U.S. tobacco program inboth a partial and general welfare economics framework. In apartial-equilibrium framework, a consumer tax-funded quota buyout can resultin producer gains, consumer losses, net losses resulting from higher prices,and deadweight losses. In a general-equilibrium framework, society can gainfrom the buyout resulting from considerable potential savings from reducedhealthcare costs attributable to a reduction in smoking. Additionally, wepresent a model that addresses the addictive qualities of tobacco whileconsidering the effects of the quota buyout. We also conclude that anotherpossible effect of the buyout is an increase in worker productivity becauseemployees who are able to quit smoking reduce the amount of smoking-relatedsick days taken.

As part of efforts to restore the Everglades, in 2008, Governor Crist ofFlorida proposed the acquisition of 187,000 acres of land from the U.S.Sugar Corporation (U.S. Sugar) for this purpose, but the final purchase inAugust 2010 totaled only 26,800 acres. This article presents the historybehind the alternatives, including the buyout of U.S. Sugar land, to improveFlorida's water quality and the health of the Everglades. To determine thebenefits and costs of several of the U.S. Sugar land buyout proposals, aspatial price equilibrium model of the U.S. sugar market is developed.Within this framework, all the benefit-cost ratios calculated show that thebenefits are less than the costs. Our analysis uses the concept of anEnvironmental Equivalent, which is the dollar amount of environmentalbenefits needed from the Everglades restoration or water quality projects togenerate benefits that are as great as or greater than its costs. Also, weconsider, within the context of ex ante vs. ex post benefit-cost analysis,the developments to clean up the Everglades since the U.S. Sugar landpurchase.

Elasticities of import demand and supply often drive economic models, butfew empirical estimates of these elasticities exist for vegetables andfruits. For those that do exist, most are outdated. Because elasticitieschange over time as income, prices, and market conditions change, outdatedelasticity estimates may not be representative of changes in importquantities demanded or in acreages, yield, and quantities supplied.Moreover, import demand elasticities by country of origin for mostvegetables and fruits are nonexistent. This article presents research thatupdates elasticity estimates for each of the selected product categories andincludes production and trade implications.

Protecting the safety of the U.S. food supply is a shared responsibility.Accomplishing that task requires the efforts of multiple government agenciescombined with private sector participation. Despite the best efforts of thepublic-private partnership, the presence of microbial contaminationincidents continues to raise questions regarding the safety of the U.S. foodsupply. As a result, there have been increased efforts to take measures toenhance food safety by the government and industry groups. The passage ofthe Food Safety Modernization Act establishes an increasing role forgovernment in establishing and enforcing food safety standards. This newinitiative is designed to address food from domestic and foreign origins.These U.S. government initiatives combined with the labyrinth of food safetystandards promoted by international organizations, foreign governments,private-sector retail food sales, food processors, and producers have acommon foundation. All of these standards generally apply to four basicbiohazards areas: soil, water, animals, and people. However, they all havean effect on the costs that producers and other members of the industry faceas they attempt to implement and/or document the multitude of activitiesrequired for compliance. This article provides an overview of the evolutionof food safety standards related to the fresh produce industry. An exampleof their potential consequences on the profitability of southern regionvegetable producers is provided and the potential impact on import suppliersis discussed.

This study used aggregated data for fresh vegetables and fresh fruits toanalyze how trade flows in the fresh produce industry have changed undertrade agreements and to assess the potential implications to nutritionpolicies in the United States. The first part of the analysis uses aBai-Perron test to endogenously determine any structural break points invegetable and fruit trade movements and prices. Directed acyclic graphs andhistorical decompositions are used to establish causal patterns oninnovations from vector autoregression models fitted to annual observationsof trade flows, prices, and income. The results showed that trade agreementshave had significant impacts to the produce industry. Income was a majordeterminant of domestic fruit production and imports.

Remarkable changes have occurred over the years in the domestic andinternational economic environment of the fruit and vegetable industry.These changes are partly driven by the North American Free Trade Agreement,nutrition policies, and development and enforcement of new food safetystandards. The articles in this invited session examined the effect of thesedrivers and their implication on the future competitiveness of the southernfruit and vegetable industry.

The “Aggie Bond” program was established in the 1980s to provide beginningand low-equity farmers access to capital. The bonds, which pay tax-exemptinterest, may be used by qualifying famers for purchases of farm real estateand equipment. Using Aggie Bond data collected from states and Census ofAgriculture data spanning 25 years, we examine whether the program has hadan impact on farm entrance, land ownership, and the size of operation. We donot find strong evidence that the program led to an increase in theproportion of beginning farmers; however, we find limited evidence theprogram helped beginning farmers become full land owners as well asincreased the rate of growth in the proportion of beginning farmers who arefull land owners.

Given the geography and agroclimatic conditions of the Southeast, coupledwith continued population expansion from in-migration, local foods marketsmay be a promising niche market for some farms in the region. The Southeasthas more small farms than any other U.S. region. Using farm-level data, weaddress the question of how successful southeastern farms engaged in directsales to consumers differ from other farms. We also include a case study ofa marketing association in the panhandle of Florida. In both analyses, wefocus on the role of the supply chain for direct sales in explaining farmreturns.

To capitalize on potential opportunities presented by growing consumerdemand for locally grown foods, farmers need insight into significantmotivations and behavioral characteristics of consumers in their region.This article aims to evaluate the characteristics of southeastern urbanconsumers who purchased food directly from producers. Novel study findingsinclude the impact of disease incidences that occurred in respondent andrelated family members, a more accurate understanding of U.S. agriculture,relatively higher levels of concern about U.S. food safety, and greaterphysical activity levels, which are significant motivators of increasedlikelihood to purchase direct from producers.