Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
Hostname: page-component-559fc8cf4f-28jzs Total loading time: 0.81 Render date: 2021-03-07T20:18:49.739Z Has data issue: true Feature Flags: { "shouldUseShareProductTool": true, "shouldUseHypothesis": true, "isUnsiloEnabled": true, "metricsAbstractViews": false, "figures": false, "newCiteModal": false, "newCitedByModal": true }

Estimates for the number of visible galaxy-spanning civilizations and the cosmological expansion of life

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 April 2016

S. Jay Olson
Affiliation:
Department of Physics, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, Boise, Idaho 83725-1570, USA
Corresponding

Abstract

If advanced civilizations appear in the universe with an ability and desire to expand, the entire universe can become saturated with life on a short timescale, even if such expanders appear rarely. Our presence in an apparently untouched Milky Way thus constrains the appearance rate of galaxy-spanning Kardashev type III (K3) civilizations, if it is assumed that some fraction of K3 civilizations will continue their expansion at intergalactic distances. We use this constraint to estimate the appearance rate of K3 civilizations for 81 cosmological scenarios by specifying the extent to which humanity is a statistical outlier. We find that in nearly all plausible scenarios, the distance to the nearest visible K3 is cosmological. In searches for K3 galaxies where the observable range is limited, we also find that the most likely detections tend to be expanding civilizations who have entered the observable range from farther away. An observation of K3 clusters is thus more likely than isolated K3 galaxies.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below.

References

Annis, J. (1999). An astrophysical explanation for the great silence. J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 52, 1922.Google Scholar
Armstrong, S. & Sandberg, A. (2013). Eternity in six hours: intergalactic spreading of intelligent life and sharpening the Fermi paradox. Acta Astron. 89, 113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bostrom, N. et al. (2002) Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy. Routledge, New York.Google Scholar
Bradbury, R.J., Cirkovic, M.M. & Dvorsky, G. (2011). Dysonian approach to SETI: a fruitful middle ground? J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 64, 156165.Google Scholar
Carrigan, R.A. Jr. (2012). Is interstellar archeology possible? Acta Astron. 78, 121126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cirkovic, M.M. (2008). Against the empire. J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 61, 246254.Google Scholar
Fogg, M. (1988). Feasibility of intergalactic colonisation and its relevance to SETI. J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 41, 491496.Google Scholar
Griffith, R., Wright, J., Maldonado, J., Povich, M.S., Sigurdjsson, S. & Mullan, B. (2015). The ĝ infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies. III. the reddest extended sources in wise. Astrophys. J. Suppl. Ser. 217(2), 25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guth, A.H. & Weinberg, E.J. (1981). Cosmological consequences of a first-order phase transition in the s u 5 grand unified model. Phys. Rev. D 23(4), 876.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guth, A.H. & Tye, S-H.H. (1980). Phase transitions and magnetic monopole production in the very early universe. Phys. Rev. Lett. 44(10), 631.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hanson, R. (1998). The great filter-are we almost past it? preprint available at http://hanson.gmu.edu/greatfilter.html.Google Scholar
Hart, M.H. (1975). Explanation for the absence of extraterrestrials on earth. Q. J. R. Astron. Soc. 16, 128.Google Scholar
Kardashev, N.S. (1964). Transmission of information by extraterrestrial civilizations. Sov. Astron. 8, 217.Google Scholar
Lacki, B.C. (2015). Seti at planck energy: when particle physicists become cosmic engineers. preprint arXiv:1503.01509.Google Scholar
Lineweaver, C.H. (2001). An estimate of the age distribution of terrestrial planets in the universe: quantifying metallicity as a selection effect. Icarus 151, 307313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newman, W.I. and Sagan, C. (1981 ). Galactic civilizations: population dynamics and interstellar diffusion. Icarus 46(3), 293327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olson, S.J. (2015). Homogeneous cosmology with aggressively expanding civilizations. Class. Quant. Gravit. 32(21), 215025.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piran, T. & Jimenez, R. (2014). Possible role of gamma ray bursts on life extinction in the universe. Phys. Rev. Lett. 113(23), 231102.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sagan, C. & Newman, W.I. (1983). The solipsist approach to extraterrestrial intelligence. Q. J. R. Astron. Soc. 24, 113.Google Scholar
Wanderman, D. & Piran, T. (2010). The luminosity function and the rate of Swift's gamma-ray bursts. Mont. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 406, 19441958.Google Scholar
Wright, J.T., Griffith, R.L., Sigurdsson, S., Povich, M.S. & Mullan, B. (2014a). The g infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies. II. framework, strategy, and first result. Astrophys. J. 792(1), 27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, J.T., Mullan, B., Sigurdsson, S. & Povich, M.S. (2014b). The g infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies. I. background and justification. Astrophys. J. 792(1), 26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zackrisson, E., Calissendorff, P., Asadi, S. & Nyholm, A. (2015). Extragalactic SETI: the tully–fisher relation as a probe of dysonian astroengineering in disk galaxies. Astrophys. J. 810(1), 23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Full text views reflects PDF downloads, PDFs sent to Google Drive, Dropbox and Kindle and HTML full text views.

Total number of HTML views: 30
Total number of PDF views: 101 *
View data table for this chart

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between September 2016 - 7th March 2021. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Send article to Kindle

To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Estimates for the number of visible galaxy-spanning civilizations and the cosmological expansion of life
Available formats
×

Send article to Dropbox

To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

Estimates for the number of visible galaxy-spanning civilizations and the cosmological expansion of life
Available formats
×

Send article to Google Drive

To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

Estimates for the number of visible galaxy-spanning civilizations and the cosmological expansion of life
Available formats
×
×

Reply to: Submit a response


Your details


Conflicting interests

Do you have any conflicting interests? *