Natural immunity to Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) is based primarily on antibodies that are thought to develop in response to subclinical infections. Wide use of conjugated Hib vaccines could lead to decreases in circulating Hib bacteria, thereby diminishing antibody levels in the unvaccinated. We applied a statistical model to estimate the duration of natural immunity to Hib under different forces of infection. Prior to the introduction of conjugated Hib vaccines, new Hib infections were estimated to occur once in 4 years and the antibody concentration to stabilize at a level around 1 μg/ml. In the absence of new stimuli, i.e. infection, 57% of the unvaccinated population would become susceptible to invasive disease (antibody levels < 0·15 μg/ml) in 10 years. Due to an interaction between the force of infection and the duration of immunity, in some situations numbers of invasive infections could increase in unvaccinated cohorts. This theoretical scenario has yet to be observed in practice.

A review of the epidemiology of clinical rubella in the Perm region of the Russian Federation from 1979–97 showed that the incidence was about 220 cases per 100000 population. Congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) accounted for 15% of birth defects and for about 3·5 cases of CRS per 1000 live births per year. Surveys of the seroepidemiology of rubella infection revealed that the susceptibility rate among pregnant women (i.e. rubella virus antibody haemagglutination-inhibition (HAI) assay titres < 10) was 16·5%. As serum rubella antibody HAI titres [ges ] 10 both prevented infection in pregnant women and protected their foetuses, serological testing has been introduced into the routine antenatal services. Pre-existing rubella antibodies were found not to interfere with the immune response to vaccination, so selective immunization was provided to girls approaching puberty and to women of childbearing age. A programme of epidemiological surveillance is being developed to define tactics for the widescale introduction of rubella vaccination.

Plague is a re-emerging disease endemic in at least 24 countries. Non-endemic countries should be able to confirm plague to prevent outbreaks due to imported cases. We established a combination of a IgG/IgM screening ELISA and a confirmation immunoblot employing F1 capsular antigen (CA) for the serodiagnosis of plague in countries where yersiniosis is present. The ELISA and the immunoblot assay showed a specificity of 96·1% and 100% among sera from healthy German blood donors. This group had a seroprevalence of 39% of anti-yersinia outer protein (YOP) antibodies obviously caused by previous Y. enterocolitica infection. The ELISA detected anti-F1 CA antibodies in 22 and the immunoblot in 20 out of 26 sera of plague vaccinees. Five control sera from bacteriologically confirmed plague cases from Madagascar reacted positively. It can be concluded that anti-YOP antibodies do not affect assays based on purified F1 CA.

In Rajahmundry town in India, 234 community cases of jaundice were interviewed for risk factors of viral hepatitis B and tested for markers of hepatitis A–E. About 41% and 1·7% of them were positive for anti-HBc and anti-HCV respectively. Of 83 cases who were tested within 3 months of onset of jaundice, 5 (6%), 11 (13·3%), 1 (1·2%), 5 (6%) and 16 (19·3%) were found to have acute viral hepatitis A–E, respectively. The aetiology of the remaining 60% (50/83) of cases of jaundice could not be established. Thirty-one percent (26/83) were already positive for anti-HBc before they developed jaundice. History of therapeutic injections before the onset of jaundice was significantly higher in cases of hepatitis B (P = 0·01) or B–D (P = 0·04) than in cases of hepatitis A and E together. Other potential risk factors of hepatitis B transmission were equally prevalent in two groups. Subsequent studies showed that the majority of injections given were unnecessary (74%, 95% CI 66–82%) and were administered by both qualified and unqualified doctors.

This study evaluated whether a correlation exists between carriage of corynebacteria and the lack of immunity to diphtheria toxoid. Samples of both nasal and pharyngeal secretions were taken from 500 apparently healthy subjects of both sexes and of all ages and inoculated onto Tinsdale's medium. A serum sample was also taken for ELISA test to determine the titre of diphtheria toxin antibodies. None of the subjects carried Corynebacterium diphtheriae. Ninety-three strains of Corynebacterium spp. were isolated from 93 subjects and 86 of these were classified to species or group level by biochemical tests. C. xerosis was the most common (25·8%) followed by C. pseudodiphthericum (16·1%), C. jeikeium and C. striatum (both 10·8%), and C. urealyticum (9·7%). Three other species accounted for approximately 20% of strains and seven were unclassified as biochemically atypical corynebacteria. Non-protective antibodies to diphtheria toxin were found in 80 of the 93 subjects and a strong statistical association was demonstrated between carriage of corynebacteria and non-protective levels of anti-toxin antibodies. The remaining 13 subjects had protective levels of antitoxin antibodies. In contrast, only 45 of the 407 non-colonized subjects had non-protective antitoxin titres. The prevalence of carriage increased with age among males as did the percentage of non-protected subjects. The prevalence of female carriers of corynebacteria was significantly lower. Serum samples from 12 subjects with different antibody titres to diphtheria toxoid reacted to varying degrees with whole-cell lysates of a number of species of corynebacteria. The results suggest that a causal relationship may exist between nasopharyngeal carriage of corynebacteria and a low anti-diphtheria toxin immune response.

Seven countries in Western Europe collected large, representative serum banks across the entire age range and tested them for diphtheria anti-toxin (sample size ranged from 2991 to 7715). Although a variety of assays were used, the results were all standardized to those of a reference laboratory and expressed in international units. The standardization process, and the availability of similar, large data sets allowed comparative analyses to be performed in which a high degree of confidence could be ascribed to observed epidemiological differences. The results showed that there were large differences in the proportion of adults with insufficient levels of protection amongst different countries. For instance, roughly 35% of 50- to 60-year-olds were found to be seronegative (titre [les ] 0·01 IU/ml) in Finland compared with 70–75% in the United Kingdom. Furthermore, the proportion of seronegative adults would be expected to increase in some countries, notably Italy and the western part of Germany. In those countries with vaccination of military recruits there was a marked sex-related difference in the proportion of seropositive individuals. All countries have high levels of infant vaccine coverage (> 90%) but the accelerated schedule in the United Kingdom appears to result in lower anti-toxin titres than elsewhere. In Sweden, booster doses are not offered until 10 years of age which results in large numbers of children with inadequate levels of protection. Although the United Kingdom and Sweden both have higher proportions of seronegative children than elsewhere the likelihood of a resurgence of diphtheria in these countries seems remote.

An epidemiological and microbiological investigation of a cluster of eight cases of Legionnaires' disease in Los Angeles County in November 1997 yielded conflicting results. The epidemiological part of the investigation implicated one of several mobile cooling towers used by a film studio in the centre of the outbreak area. However, water sampled from these cooling towers contained L. pneumophila serogroup 1 of another subtype than the strain that was recovered from case-patients in the outbreak. Samples from two cooling towers located downwind from all of the case-patients contained a Legionella strain that was indistinguishable from the outbreak strain by four subtyping techniques (AP-PCR, PFGE, MAb, and MLEE). It is unlikely that these cooling towers were the source of infection for all the case-patients, and they were not associated with risk of disease in the case-control study. The outbreak strain also was not distinguishable, by three subtyping techniques (AP-PCR, PFGE, and MAb), from a L. pneumophila strain that had caused an outbreak in Providence, RI, in 1993. Laboratory cross-contamination was unlikely because the initial subtyping was done in different laboratories.

In this investigation, microbiology was helpful for distinguishing the outbreak cluster from unrelated cases of Legionnaires' disease occurring elsewhere. However, multiple subtyping techniques failed to distinguish environmental sources that were probably not associated with the outbreak. Persons investigating Legionnaires' disease outbreaks should be aware that microbiological subtyping does not always identify a source with absolute certainty.

We describe the epidemiology of the first nationwide outbreak of measles infection in the UK since the implementation of a mass vaccination campaign. Notifications of infectious diseases, interview and postal questionnaire identified 293 clinical cases, 138 of which were confirmed by salivary IgM, measles virus isolation and PCR. Twelve were epidemiologically linked to confirmed cases. The outbreak began in London, after contact with measles infection probably imported from Italy. Measles genotyping determined by sequence analysis confirmed spread to other unimmunized anthroposophic communities in the north, south west and south coast of England. Only two cases had been vaccinated against measles infection, and 90% of cases were aged under 15 years. Measles virus can selectively target non-immune groups in countries with high vaccine uptake and broader herd immunity. Without harmonization of vaccination policies and uniform high coverage across Europe, the importation and spread of measles virus amongst non-immune groups may prevent the elimination of measles.

WHO has adopted a goal of eliminating indigenous measles from the European Region by the year 2007. The strategy focuses on reducing the proportion of susceptible individuals in the population to low levels and maintaining these low levels of susceptibility. Routine vaccination against measles for children aged 13–15 months was introduced in Poland in 1975, and a second dose added in 1991. High coverage (> 95%) is achieved with both doses. In order to assess progress towards measles elimination in Poland, a serological survey was performed to evaluate the impact of vaccination on the susceptibility profile of population. Three thousand residual serum samples from individuals aged 1–30 years were collected from hospitals in six selected voivodeships (administration units) in Poland. These were tested for measles-specific IgG using a commercial ELISA. Overall 4% (120/3000) were negative for measles virus antibody. The highest proportion of negatives (8·2%) occurred among cohorts born 1977–81 – the only cohorts in which susceptibility exceeded the WHO targets. ‘Catch-up’ vaccination strategies should target these cohorts.

Mycoplasma fermentans is suspected in the development of ‘Gulf War illness’ in veterans of Operation Desert Storm. We conducted a matched case-control study for the prevalence of M. fermentans-specific antibodies before and after the operation, as well as seroconversion rates in veterans with and without complaints of ‘Gulf War illness’. Cases consisted of Gulf War veterans, who complained of various illnesses and were enrolled in the second phase of the health evaluation by the Army Comprehensive Clinical Examination Program (CCEP). Controls were selected from Gulf War veterans who did not participate in the registry and did not request a health evaluation by the CCEP. Before operation deployment, 34 out of 718 of the cases (4·8%) and 116 out of 2233 of the controls (5·2%) tested positive for M. fermentans-specific antibodies. There was no difference in rates of seroconversion between cases and controls (1·1 vs. 1·2%) to M. fermentans during Operation Desert Storm. Thus, there is no serological evidence that suggests infection by M. fermentans is associated with development of ‘Gulf War illness’.

The ESEN (European Sero-Epidemiology Network) project was established to harmonize the seroepidemiology of five vaccine preventable infections including measles, mumps and rubella in eight European countries. This involved achieving comparability both in the assay results from testing in different centres and also sampling methodology. Standardization of enzyme immunoassay results was achieved through the development of common panels of sera by designated reference centres. The panels were tested at the reference laboratory and then distributed to each participating laboratory for testing using their routine methods. Standardization equations were calculated by regressing the quantitative results against those of the reference laboratory. Our study found large differences in unitage between participants, despite all using an EIA method standardized against an international or local standard. Moreover, our methodology adjusted for this difference. These standardization equations will be used to convert the results of main serosurvey testing into the reference country unitage to ensure inter-country comparability.

Data were collected on 6578 patients diagnosed with AIDS at 52 clinical centres in 17 European countries during an 11-year period from 1979 to 1989. The centres were divided into four regions, North, Central, Southeast, and Southwest. Differences in the incidence of most AIDS-defining opportunistic infections and malignancies were found. After adjusting for known possible confounders, statistically significant differences between regions remained. Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) was more common in Northern Europe, Kaposi's sarcoma and toxoplasmosis in Central Europe, cytomegalovirus retinitis in South-eastern Europe, and extrapulmonary tuberculosis in South-western Europe. These differences we attribute primarily to different degrees of exposure to the respective underlying pathogens. The prevalence of these and other micro-organisms will determine the clinical course of HIV infections in parts of Eastern Europe and elsewhere where the virus now is spreading.

The prevention of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), as a complication of rubella infection during pregnancy, is the main aim of rubella vaccination programmes. However, as vaccination of infants leads to an increase in the average age at which those who were not immunized become infected, certain rubella vaccination programmes can lead to an increase in the incidence of CRS. In this paper we use a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of rubella virus to investigate the likely impact of different vaccination policies in Europe. The model was able to capture pre-and post-vaccination patterns of infection and prevalence of serological markers under a wide variety of scenarios, suggesting that the model structure and parameter estimates were appropriate. Analytical and numerical results suggest that endemic circulation of rubella is unlikely in Finland, the United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and perhaps Denmark, provided vaccine coverage is uniform across geographical and social groups. In Italy and Germany vaccine coverage in infancy has not been sufficient to interrupt rubella transmission, and continued epidemics of CRS seem probable. It seems unlikely that the immunization programmes in these countries are doing more harm than good, but this may be partly as a result of selective immunization of schoolgirls. Indeed, in both these countries, selective vaccination of schoolgirls with inadequate vaccination histories is likely to be an important mechanism by which CRS incidence is suppressed (unlike the other countries, which have had sufficiently high infant coverage rates to withdraw this option). Reducing inequalities in the uptake of rubella vaccine may bring greater health benefits than increasing the mean level of coverage.

Influenza vaccine effect on the occurrence and severity of influenza virus infection in a population residing in nursing homes for the elderly was studied as a cohort study during an influenza A (H3N2) epidemic in Japan. Of 22462 individuals living in 301 welfare nursing homes, 10739 voluntarily received inactivated, sub-unit trivalent influenza vaccine in a programme supported by the Osaka Prefectural Government. There were statistically significantly fewer cases of influenza, hospital admissions due to severe infection, and deaths due to influenza in the vaccinated cohort compared to the unvaccinated controls. No serious adverse reactions to vaccination were recorded. Thus influenza vaccination is effective for preventing influenza disease in persons aged 65 years and over, and should be an integral part of the care of this population residing in nursing homes.

Drug use is a major mode of HIV transmission in Thailand. This study determined HIV incidence rates among drug users in a regional drug treatment centre in northern Thailand. A retrospective cohort of repeatedly-hospitalized drug users between 1993 and 1997 was formed and HIV incidence rates were calculated. The overall incidence was 11·44 per 100 person-years of observation. Gender, age, religion, ethnicity, education, employment, income, reasons for drug use, type of drugs, mode of use, spending on drugs, and referral for treatment are associated with HIV incidence. However, there are no associations between HIV incidence and history of treatment and mode of discharge from the centre. This implies that current treatment modality has no impact on HIV infection risk and other therapeutic approaches should be explored.

The objective of the study was to assess the prevalence and epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in pregnant women in the North Thames region, and in the UK in general. Demographic data were linked to neonatal samples prior to anonymization and testing by anti-HCV EIA, and with RIBA 3 confirmation. Risk factors for maternal infection were explored. Area-specific seroprevalence rates were multiplied into population sizes to estimate HCV prevalence in pregnant women in the UK. A total of 241/126009 samples were confirmed anti-HCV positive, and a further 40 were indeterminate, representing a seroprevalence of 0·19–0·22%; 51% of maternal HCV infections were in UK-born women (71% of the population), and 22% in women from continental Europe (5% of the population). Among European-born women, HCV prevalence was associated with birth in continental Europe, partner not being notified at birth registration, partner born in a different region to the mother, and inner city residence. Four of the 241 anti-HCV positive samples (1·7%) were also anti-HIV-1 positive. It was estimated that each year an estimated 1150 out of 730000 pregnancies in the UK would involve a woman infected with HCV (uncertainty range 660–1850), a prevalence of 0·16% (0·09–0·25%). On the basis of reported rates of mother-to-child transmission of HCV, this would represent approximately 70 paediatric HCV infections per year.

Data on the pre-vaccination patterns of infection for measles, mumps and rubella are collated from a number of European countries in order to compare the epidemiology of the three viruses. Key epidemiological parameters, such as the age-specific force of infection and the basic reproduction number (R0) are estimated from case notification or serological data using standard techniques. A method is described to compare force of infection estimates derived from serological data. Analysis suggests that the pre-vaccination patterns of measles and mumps infection in the different countries were similar. In contrast, the epidemiology of rubella was highly variable between countries. This suggests that it may be acceptable to use parameter values estimated from other countries to model measles and mumps transmission, but that this approach to modelling rubella transmission requires more caution. Estimates of R0 depend on underlying mixing assumptions. Constraints were placed on R0 estimates by utilising knowledge of likely mixing patterns. The estimates for R0 were highest for measles, intermediate for mumps, and generally lowest for rubella. Analysis of within- and between-age-group transmission rates suggested that mumps transmission tends to be more concentrated within young children than the other two viruses. The implications for the design of immunization programmes are that mumps may be the easiest to control via infant immunization since it is predominantly transmitted between the very young and the variability in rubella epidemiology requires that careful consideration of the possible effects of vaccination options should be made using local data when planning rubella immunization programmes.

HIV and HTLV seroprevalence was determined by means of unlinked anonymous testing of 2144 sera, originally obtained from primary care patients by representative sampling of the Spanish population aged 15-39 years in 1996. HIV-1 seroprevalence was 4·3 per 1000 population in the 15–39 years age group [95% confidence interval (CI), 1·5–10·7] and 5·6 per 1000 (95% CI, 1·8–15·3) in the 20–39 years age group. Seroprevalence proved higher in males and urban residents. No antibodies to HIV-2 and HTLV-I were detected in any of the sera studied. However, presence of antibodies to HTLV-II was confirmed in one serum sample, while HTLV seroreactivity, though detected in another, could not be typed. The two HTLV-positive results equated to a seroprevalence of 1·9 per 1000 in the 20–39 years age group (95% CI, 0·3–8·6). HIV-1 seroprevalence was consistent with previous estimates yielded by back-calculation. The level of HTLV seroprevalence found suggests endemicity.

The objective of this study was to develop and apply a dynamic mathematical model of VZV transmission to predict the effect of different vaccination strategies on the age-specific incidence and outcome of infection. To do so a deterministic realistic age-structured model (RAS) was used which takes account of the increased potential for transmission within school aged groups. Various vaccine efficacy scenarios, vaccine coverages and vaccination strategies were investigated and a sensitivity analysis of varicella incidence predictions to important parameters was performed. The model predicts that the overall (natural and breakthrough) incidence and morbidity of varicella would likely be reduced by mass vaccination of 12-month-old children. Furthermore, adding a catch-up campaign in the first year for 1–11 year olds seems to be the most effective strategy to reduce both varicella incidence and morbidity (in the short and long term), though with the possible detrimental effect of increasing the incidence of zoster.

A study of 215 Berlin dentists and 108 dental assistants recruited at the 1997 Berlin Dental Society meeting assessed their occupational risk of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, HBV vaccine coverage, and barrier prevention methods used. Among dentists, 7% (95% CI 4–11) and 0·5% (95% CI 0–3) had serological evidence of previous HBV and HCV infection, respectively. Similar figures for dental assistants were 1% (95% CI 0–5) and 0% (95% CI 0–4). Only 74% of dentists and 63% of dental assistants reported HBV vaccination. Approximately half always used gloves, eye glasses, or face masks. HBV unvaccinated dentists whose patients had HBV risk factors had a greater risk of HBV infection; those who always wore face masks were at lower risk (OR 0·2, 95% CI 0·02–0·98). These data indicate that among Berlin dentists, the HCV risk was lower than that of HBV and that face masks may have lowered the risk of HBV. The use of eye glasses or gloves did not appear to lower the risk of HBV acquisition in this population.