The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has emerged as an unprecedented global crisis challenging health systems. This paper aims to assess and characterise SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg to identify groups at greatest risk, to establish early measures to curb transmission. We analysed all mandatory notified (i.e. laboratory-confirmed) coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreaks with more than two cases in Baden-Wuerttemberg from calendar weeks 18–49 (from 27 April to 6 December 2020). We used the following classification for settings: asylum and refugee accommodation, care homes, care facilities, day care child centres, hobby-related, hospitality, hospitals, households, other, residence halls, schools, supported housing, training schools, transportation, treatment facilities and workplace (occupational). We used R program version 3.6.3 for analysis. In our analysis, 3219 outbreaks with 22 238 individuals were included. About 48% were in household and hobby-related settings. Care homes accounted for 9.5% of outbreaks and 21.6% of cases. The median age across all settings was 43 (interquartile range (IQR) 24–63). The median age of cases in care homes was 81 (IQR 56–88). Of all reported cases in care homes, 72.1% were women. Over 30% (466/1511) of hospitalisations were among cases in care homes compared to 17.7% (268/1511) in households. Overall, 70% (500/715) of all deceased persons in outbreaks in the study period were in care homes compared to 4.2% in household settings (30/715). We observed an exponential increase in the number of notified outbreaks starting around the 41st week with N = 291 outbreaks reported in week 49. The median number of cases in outbreaks in care homes and care facilities after the 40th week was 14 (IQR 5–29) and 11 (IQR 5–20), respectively, compared to 3 (IQR 3–5) in households. We observed an increase in hospitalisations, and mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes after the 40th week. We found the care home demographic to be at greatest risk after the 40th week, based on the exponential increase in outbreaks, the number of cases, hospitalisations and mortality trends. Our analysis highlights the necessity of targeted, setting-specific approaches to control transmission in this vulnerable population. Regular screening of staff members and visitors' using rapid antigen point-of-care-tests could be a game-changer in curbing transmission in this setting.

Estimating the lengths-of-stay (LoS) of hospitalised COVID-19 patients is key for predicting the hospital beds’ demand and planning mitigation strategies, as overwhelming the healthcare systems has critical consequences for disease mortality. However, accurately mapping the time-to-event of hospital outcomes, such as the LoS in the intensive care unit (ICU), requires understanding patient trajectories while adjusting for covariates and observation bias, such as incomplete data. Standard methods, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator, require prior assumptions that are untenable given current knowledge. Using real-time surveillance data from the first weeks of the COVID-19 epidemic in Galicia (Spain), we aimed to model the time-to-event and event probabilities of patients’ hospitalised, without parametric priors and adjusting for individual covariates. We applied a non-parametric mixture cure model and compared its performance in estimating hospital ward (HW)/ICU LoS to the performances of commonly used methods to estimate survival. We showed that the proposed model outperformed standard approaches, providing more accurate ICU and HW LoS estimates. Finally, we applied our model estimates to simulate COVID-19 hospital demand using a Monte Carlo algorithm. We provided evidence that adjusting for sex, generally overlooked in prediction models, together with age is key for accurately forecasting HW and ICU occupancy, as well as discharge or death outcomes.

Although vaccines have become available, emergence and rapid transmission of new variants have added new paradigm in the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Weather, population and host immunity have been detected as the regulatory elements of COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the effects of weather, population and host factors on the outcome of COVID-19 and mutation frequency in Japan. Data were collected during January 2020 to February 2021. About 92% isolates were form GR clades. Variants 501Y.V1 (53%) and 452R.V1 (24%) were most prevalent in Japan. The strongest correlation was detected between fatalities and population density (rs = 0.81) followed by total population (rs = 0.72). Relative humidity had the highest correlation (rs = −0.71) with the case fatality rate. Cluster mutations namely N501Y (45%), E484K (30%), N439K (16%), K417N (6%) and T478I (3%) at spike protein have increased during January to February 2021. Above 90% fatality was detected in patients aged >60 years. The ratio of male to female patients of COVID-19 was 1.35:1. This study will help to understand the seasonality of COVID-19 and impact of weather on the outcome which will add knowledge to reduce the health burden of COVID-19 by the international organisations and policy makers.

Antimicrobial resistance is a One Health issue requiring the development of surveillance systems in the human, environmental and animal sectors. In the European Economic Area, the surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in zoonotic pathogens and indicator bacteria in healthy food-producing animals is required legally, while countries are also expected to extend their surveillance to diseased animals in the frame of national action plans. In this context, evaluating existing antimicrobial resistance surveillance systems in animal health is important to improve systems in place, but also to help other countries learn from these experiences, understand success factors and anticipate challenges. With this aim, the French surveillance network for antimicrobial resistance in bacteria from diseased animals (RESAPATH) was evaluated using the Outil d'Analyse des Systèmes d'Information en Santé (OASIS) assessment tool. Key performance factors included (i) a strong and inclusive central institutional organisation defining clear and well-accepted surveillance objectives, scope and procedures, (ii) strong skills in epidemiology and microbiology and (iii) a win–win approach enabling the voluntary participation of 71 field laboratories and where free annual proficiency testing plays a pivotal role. The main area for improvement of RESAPATH was its time-consuming data management system.

We conducted a prospective study about sexually transmitted infections (STIs) knowledge in different populations attending Lyon's University Hospitals in order to estimate awareness on STIs. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP)-users (PrEP group), persons living with HIV (PLWH group) and persons undergoing free STI screening (screening group) filled an anonymous questionnaire evaluating STI knowledge. A composite STI knowledge score was calculated and was correlated with patients’ characteristics. A total of 756 patients were enrolled in three groups: screening (n = 509), PrEP (n = 103) and PLWH (n = 144). STI transmission knowledge was better for HIV than for other STIs. The median STI knowledge score was significantly higher in PrEP-users than in the screening and PLWH groups. PrEP use and a previous STI diagnosis were independently associated with a higher score. PrEP-users have better STI knowledge than PLWH and persons undergoing free STI screening. Sexual health promotion interventions routinely reserved to PrEP-users in France seem to be effective in raising the awareness of this group for STIs. Continuous efforts are justified for PLWH and the younger layers of the population.

In rapidly growing and high-burden urban centres, identifying tuberculosis (TB) transmission hotspots and understanding the potential impact of interventions can inform future control and prevention strategies. Using data on local demography, TB reports and patient reporting patterns in Dhaka South City Corporation (DSCC) and Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC), Bangladesh, between 2010 and 2017, we developed maps of TB reporting rates across wards in DSCC and DNCC and identified wards with high rates of reported TB (i.e. ‘hotspots’) in DSCC and DNCC. We developed ward-level transmission models and estimated the potential epidemiological impact of three TB interventions: active case finding (ACF), mass preventive therapy (PT) and a combination of ACF and PT, implemented either citywide or targeted to high-incidence hotspots. There was substantial geographic heterogeneity in the estimated TB incidence in both DSCC and DNCC: incidence in the highest-incidence wards was over ten times higher than in the lowest-incidence wards in each city corporation. ACF, PT and combined ACF plus PT delivered to 10% of the population reduced TB incidence by a projected 7%–9%, 13%–15% and 19%–23% over five years, respectively. Targeting TB hotspots increased the projected reduction in TB incidence achieved by each intervention 1.4- to 1.8-fold. The geographical pattern of TB notifications suggests high levels of ongoing TB transmission in DSCC and DNCC, with substantial heterogeneity at the ward level. Interventions that reduce transmission are likely to be highly effective and incorporating notification data at the local level can further improve intervention efficiency.

Student's t test is valid for statistical inference under the normality assumption or asymptotically. By contrast, although the bootstrap t test was proposed in 1993, it is seldom adopted in medical research. We aim to demonstrate that the bootstrap t test outperforms Student's t test under normality in data. Using random data samples from normal distributions, we evaluated the testing performance, in terms of true-positive rate (TPR) and false-positive rate and diagnostic abilities, in terms of the area under the curve (AUC), of the bootstrap t test and Student's t test. We explore the AUC of both tests with varying sample size and coefficient of variation. We compare the testing outcomes using the COVID-19 serial interval (SI) data in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, China, for demonstration. With fixed TPR, the bootstrap t test maintained the equivalent accuracy in TPR, but significantly improved the true-negative rate from the Student's t test. With varying TPR, the diagnostic ability of bootstrap t test outperformed or equivalently performed as Student's t test in terms of the AUC. The equivalent performances are possible but rarely occur in practice. We find that the bootstrap t test outperforms by successfully detecting the difference in COVID-19 SI, which is defined as the time interval between consecutive transmission generations, due to sex and non-pharmaceutical interventions against the Student's t test. We demonstrated that the bootstrap t test outperforms Student's t test, and it is recommended to replace Student's t test in medical data analysis regardless of sample size.

Recurrent outbreaks of haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS) caused by Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) serotype O55:H7 occurred in England between 2014 and 2018. We reviewed the epidemiological evidence to identify potential source(s) and transmission routes of the pathogen, and to assess the on-going risk to public health. Over the 5-year period, there were 43 confirmed and three probable cases of STEC O55:H7. The median age of cases was 4 years old (range 6 months to 69 years old) and over half of all cases were female (28/46, 61%). There were 36/46 (78.3%) symptomatic cases, and over half of all cases developed HUS (25/46, 54%), including two fatal cases. No common food or environmental exposures were identified, although the majority of cases lived in rural or semi-rural environments and reported contact with both wild and domestic animals. This investigation informed policy on the clinical and public health management of HUS caused by STEC other than serotype O157:H7 (non-O157 STEC) in England, including comprehensive testing of all household contacts and household pets and more widespread use of polymerase chain reaction assays for the rapid diagnosis of STEC-HUS.

Conflicting results have been obtained through meta-analyses for the role of obesity as a risk factor for adverse outcomes in patients with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), possibly due to the inclusion of predominantly multimorbid patients with severe COVID-19. Here, we aimed to study obesity alone or in combination with other comorbidities as a risk factor for short-term all-cause mortality and other adverse outcomes in Mexican patients evaluated for suspected COVID-19 in ambulatory units and hospitals in Mexico. We performed a retrospective observational analysis in a national cohort of 71 103 patients from all 32 states of Mexico from the National COVID-19 Epidemiological Surveillance Study. Two statistical models were applied through Cox regression to create survival models and logistic regression models to determine risk of death, hospitalisation, invasive mechanical ventilation, pneumonia and admission to an intensive care unit, conferred by obesity and other comorbidities (diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, immunosuppression, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease). Models were adjusted for other risk factors. From 24 February to 26 April 2020, 71 103 patients were evaluated for suspected COVID-19; 15 529 (21.8%) had a positive test for SARS-CoV-2; 46 960 (66.1%), negative and 8614 (12.1%), pending results. Obesity alone increased adjusted mortality risk in positive patients (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.04–2.98), but not in negative and pending-result patients. Obesity combined with other comorbidities further increased risk of death (DM: HR = 2.79, 95% CI 2.04–3.80; immunosuppression: HR = 5.06, 95% CI 2.26–11.41; hypertension: HR = 2.30, 95% CI 1.77–3.01) and other adverse outcomes. In conclusion, obesity is a strong risk factor for short-term mortality and critical illness in Mexican patients with COVID-19; risk increases when obesity is present with other comorbidities.

The outbreak of pneumonia-like respiratory disorder at China and its rapid transmission world-wide resulted in public health emergency, which brought lineage B betacoronaviridae SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) into spotlight. The fairly high mutation rate, frequent recombination and interspecies transmission in betacoronaviridae are largely responsible for their temporal changes in infectivity and virulence. Investigation of global SARS-CoV-2 genotypes revealed considerable mutations in structural, non-structural, accessory proteins as well as untranslated regions. Among the various types of mutations, single-nucleotide substitutions are the predominant ones. In addition, insertion, deletion and frame-shift mutations are also reported, albeit at a lower frequency. Among the structural proteins, spike glycoprotein and nucleocapsid phosphoprotein accumulated a larger number of mutations whereas envelope and membrane proteins are mostly conserved. Spike protein and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase variants, D614G and P323L in combination became dominant world-wide. Divergent genetic variants created serious challenge towards the development of therapeutics and vaccines. This review will consolidate mutations in different SARS-CoV-2 proteins and their implications on viral fitness.

The explosive outbreak of COVID-19 led to a shortage of medical resources, including isolation rooms in hospitals, healthcare workers (HCWs) and personal protective equipment. Here, we constructed a new model, non-contact community treatment centres to monitor and quarantine asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic COVID-19 patients who recorded their own vital signs using a smartphone application. This new model in Korea is useful to overcome shortages of medical resources and to minimise the risk of infection transmission to HCWs.

In November 2017, eight confirmed measles cases were reported to Public Health England from a hospital in the West Midlands. A multidisciplinary Incident Management Team (IMT) was established to determine the extent of the problem and coordinate an outbreak response. Between 1 November 2017 and 4 June 2018, a total of 116 confirmed and 21 likely measles cases were linked to this outbreak; just under half (43%) were aged over 15 years of age. Fifty-five of the confirmed cases were hospitalised (48%) and no deaths were reported. At the start of the outbreak, cases were mostly individuals of Romanian origin; the outbreak subsequently spread to the wider population. Over the 8-month response, the IMT conducted the following control measures: extensive contact tracing, immediate provision of post-exposure prophylaxis, community engagement amongst specific high-risk groups, MMR awareness raising including catch-up campaigns and enhanced vaccination services at selected GP surgeries. Key challenges to the effective control measures included language difficulties limiting community engagement; delays in diagnosis, notification and appropriate isolation of cases; limited resources for contact tracing across multiple high-risk settings (including GPs and hospitals) and lack of timely data on vaccine coverage in sub-groups of the population to guide public health action.

In 2009, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) and the 16 German federal state public health authorities (PHAs) established a weekly epidemiological teleconference (EpiLag) to discuss infectious disease (ID) events and foster horizontal and vertical information exchange. We present the procedure, discussed ID topics and evaluation results of EpiLag after 10 years. We analysed attendance, duration of EpiLag and the frequency of reported events. Participants (RKI and state PHA) were surveyed regarding their satisfaction with logistics, contents and usefulness of EpiLag (Likert scales). Between 2009 and 2018, RKI hosted 484 EpiLag conferences with a mean duration of 25 min (range: 4–60) and high participation (range: 9–16; mean: 15 PHAs). Overall, 2975 ID events (39% international, 9% national and 52% subnational) were presented (mean: 6.1 per EpiLag), most frequently on measles (18%), salmonellosis (8%) and influenza (5%). All responding participants (14/16 PHAs and 9/9 at RKI) were satisfied with the EpiLag's organization and minutes and deemed EpiLag useful for an overview and information distribution on ID events relevant to Germany. EpiLag is time efficient, easily applicable and useful for a low-threshold event communication. It supports PHAs in crises and strengthens the network of surveillance stakeholders. We recommend its implementation to other countries or sectors.

No previous studies have examined Mycobacterium avium complex pulmonary disease (MAC-PD) in only elderly patients ⩾75 years old. Here, we investigated the exacerbating factors of MAC-PD in elderly patients and clarified cases that can be followed up without MAC medication. From April 2011 to March 2019, 126 advanced aged patients at our institute were newly diagnosed with MAC-PD, and could be observed based on radiological findings for over a year. Their medical records were retrospectively examined for clinical and radiological findings at the time of diagnosis and 1 year later. To identify the predictors of exacerbation, clinical characteristics of 109 treatment-naïve patients were compared between exacerbated and unchanged groups. Additionally, the unchanged group was followed for one more year. In the current study, positive acid-fast bacilli smears from the sputum test, the presence of cavitary lesions and extensive radiological findings, particularly abnormal shadows in ⩾3 lobes, were predictive of exacerbation among treatment-naïve elderly MAC-PD patients. In the unchanged group, <10% showed exacerbation of radiological findings within the subsequent year. In conclusion, if the sputum smear is negative, no cavitary lesions are present, and abnormal shadows are restricted to ⩽2 lobes, elderly patients with MAC-PD may remain untreated for a few years.

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, many countries opted for strict public health measures, including closing schools. After some time, they have started relaxing some of those restrictions. To avoid overwhelming health systems, predictions for the number of new COVID-19 cases need to be considered when choosing a school reopening strategy. Using a computer simulation based on a stochastic compartmental model that includes a heterogeneous and dynamic network, we analyse different strategies to reopen schools in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area, including one similar to the official reopening plan. Our model allows us to describe different types of relations between people, each type with a different infectiousness. Based on our simulations and model assumptions, our results indicate that reopening schools with all students at once has a big impact on the number of new COVID-19 cases, which could cause a collapse of the health system. On the other hand, our results also show that a controlled school reopening could possibly avoid the collapse of the health system, depending on how people follow sanitary measures. We estimate that postponing the schools' return date for after a vaccine becomes available may save tens of thousands of lives just in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area compared to a controlled reopening considering a worst-case scenario. We also discuss our model constraints and the uncertainty of its parameters.

Rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (R-PEP) including wound treatment, vaccination and application of rabies immunoglobulin (RIG) is essential in preventing rabies mortality. Today, Germany is officially declared free from terrestrial rabies and rabies is only found in bats. However, physicians in A&E Departments are frequently consulted on the need for R-PEP. We retrospectively analysed patients who received R-PEP at the A&E Department of the University Hospital Bonn between 01.01.2013 and 30.06.2019. Demographic data, travel history, clinical and laboratory findings, previous rabies vaccinations and R-PEP vaccination regimen were recorded. During the study period, 90 patients received R-PEP at the University Hospital Bonn, in 10 cases without indication for R-PEP. Altogether, we found deviations from R-PEP guidelines in 51% (n = 41/80). Infiltration of RIG was missed in 12 patients and incorrectly administrated in 24 patients. Furthermore, vaccination scheme was incorrect in 11 patients. Correct wound washing and documentation of tetanus status was missing in 14% and 63% of patients, respectively. Despite rabies elimination in Germany patients frequently seek advice for R-PEP, the majority returning from foreign travel. Our data show that there is a high need for education on indication for R-PEP before and after travel and for implementation of precise R-PEP guidelines in daily clinical practice.

Recently, the antibacterial properties of oestrogen and progestogen were discovered. The aim of this study was to find the cross-sectional association between oral contraceptive use and Helicobacter pylori seroprevalence. Data were obtained from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The H. pylori immunoglobulin G (IgG) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were used to categorise participants as seropositive or seronegative. The study population included 799 female participants who had information on H. pylori seroprevalence and all other covariates and had not been taking any medications (except oral contraceptives). The bivariate Rao–Scott chi-square test indicated a significant association between H. pylori seroprevalence and contraceptive use (P < 0.01). The variables of race, education, poverty income ratio, smoking, and blood lead and cadmium levels were also significantly associated with H. pylori seroprevalence (P < 0.01). Multiple logistic regression analysis of the age-adjusted model revealed that contraceptive users are 65% less likely of being H. pylori seropositive as compared to non-contraceptive users (odds ratio (OR): 0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.18–0.68). This association is stronger with the final multivariate model (OR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.23–0.89). Conclusions: This finding reveals the potential protective effect of oral contraceptives against H. pylori infection and serves as a foundation study for further investigations.