An innovative strategy to reduce dengue transmission uses the bacterium Wolbachia. We analysed the effects of Wolbachia on dengue transmission dynamics in the presence of two serotypes of dengue using a mathematical model, allowing for differences in the epidemiological characteristics of the serotypes. We found that Wolbachia has a greater effect on secondary infections than on primary infections across a range of epidemiological characteristics. If one serotype is more transmissible than the other, it will dominate primary infections and Wolbachia will be less effective at reducing secondary infections of either serotype. Differences in the antibody-dependent enhancement of the two serotypes have considerably less effect on the benefits of Wolbachia than differences in transmission probability. Even if the antibody-dependent enhancement rate is high, Wolbachia is still effective in reducing dengue. Our findings suggest that Wolbachia will be effective in the presence of more than one serotype of dengue; however, a better understanding of serotype-specific differences in transmission probability may be needed to optimize delivery of a Wolbachia intervention.

Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) causes haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in humans, an endemic disease in Finland. We aimed to study recent trends in PUUV infections in Finland, to evaluate whether there are regional differences in seasonality and long-term cycles and whether the patterns have changed over time. We analysed serologically confirmed acute PUUV infections reported to the National Infectious Disease Register from 1 April 1995 to 31 March 2014. A total of 30 942 cases of PUUV infections were identified during the study period. The average annual incidence was 31 cases/100 000 person-years with the highest in Eastern Finland and the lowest in Southwestern Finland. Throughout Finland there was not an increasing trend in incidence but changes in incidence, seasonality and long-term cycles differed regionally. Long-term cycles supported by high Bayesian posterior probabilities (73–100%) differed between the south and the north, shifting from 3 to 4 years, respectively. Temporal changes in seasonality were most prominent in Southwestern Finland. The pattern of human PUUV infection epidemiology probably primarily reflects the spatio-temporal interaction between bank-vole population dynamics and climate.

Skin and soft tissue infection (SSTIs) due to Staphylococcus aureus, particularly community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA), are common in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected populations in the United States. Studies have differed as to the importance of epidemiological and immunological factors in this relationship, and have employed conflicting strategies for variable selection in multivariate analyses. Developments in causal inference methods in epidemiology have emerged in the last decade to clarify relationships between variables and identify appropriate variables to include in and exclude from multivariate analysis. In this paper, we develop a causal diagram to clarify the pathways linking CA-MRSA and HIV. We focus on the role played by trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) prophylaxis, prescribed to many severely immunocompromised HIV patients and potentially protective against SSTIs, which both mediates and moderates the relationship between immunological parameters and SSTI risk. We demonstrate, using simulated data, that statistical models may yield biased results if they do not account for how HIV viral load may also be a marker of adherence to TMP-SMX prophylaxis. We conclude with a proposed causal model that includes both the epidemiological as well as immunological factors that may explain the increased risk of initial and recurrent SSTI risk in HIV-infected populations.