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Anticipating Change: How Many Acute Care Hospital Beds Will Manitoba Regions Need in 2020?

  • Gregory S. Finlayson (a1), David Stewart (a2), Robert B. Tate (a1), Leonard MacWilliam (a1) and Noralou Roos (a1)...

Abstract

Being able to anticipate future needs for health services presents a challenge for health planners. Using existing population projections, two models are presented to estimate the demand for hospital beds in regions of Manitoba in 2020. The first, a current-use projection model, simply projects the average use for a recent three-year period into the future. The second, a 10-year trend analysis, uses Poisson regression to project future demand. The current-use projection suggests a substantial increase in the demand for hospital beds, while the trend analysis projects a decline. The last projections are consistent with ongoing increases in rates of day surgeries and declines in lengths of stay. The current-use projections need to be considered in the context of relatively low occupancy rates in rural hospitals and previous research on appropriateness of stays in acute care hospitals. If measures are taken to ensure more appropriate use of acute care hospital beds in the future, then the current-use projections of bed shortages are not a cause for concern.

Pouvoir anticiper les besoins à venir en matière de services de santé constitue un défi pour les personnes responsables de la planification en matière de santé. Au moyen des prévisions démographiques existantes, cette étude présente deux méthodes visant à évaluer la demande en matière de lits d'hôpitaux dans les régions du Manitoba en 2020. La première méthode, qui s'appuie sur une projection fondée sur l'utilisation actuelle, consiste tout simplement à effectuer une projection dans l'avenir à partir de l'utilisation moyenne au cours d'une période de trois ans. La deuxième méthode, une analyse des tendances sur dix ans, utilise la méthode de régression de Poisson pour déterminer les besoins futurs. La projection fondée sur l'utilisation actuelle révèle une augmentation substantielle des besoins en matière de lits d'hôpitaux, tandis que l'analyse des tendances prévoit une diminution. Les dernières prévisions concordent avec l'augmentation constante du nombre de chirurgies d'un jour et la diminution de la durée des séjours. Les prévisions fondées sur l'utilisation actuelle doivent être envisagées dans le cadre des taux d'occupation relativement bas dans les hôpitaux ruraux et des recherches antérieures sur la pertinence des séjours dans des hôpitaux de soins de courte durée. Si, à l'avenir, des mesures sont prises pour assurer une utilisation plus appropriée des lits destinés aux soins de courte durée, les prévisions des pénuries de lits fondées sur l'utilisation actuelle ne représentent pas une source d'inquiétudes.

Copyright

Corresponding author

Requests for offprints should be sent to: / Les demandes de tirés-à-part doivent être addressées à : Gregory S. Finlayson, B.A., C.A.E., Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, 727 McDermot Avenue, Suite 408, Winnipeg, MB R3E 3P5. (Greg_Finlayson@cpe.umanitoba.ca)

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Canadian Journal on Aging / La Revue canadienne du vieillissement
  • ISSN: 0714-9808
  • EISSN: 1710-1107
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