Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-gq7q9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-17T06:45:22.519Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Fonctions de vote et prévisions électorales, une application à la présidentielle française de 2007

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 March 2010

Bruno Jérôme  and
Véronique Jérôme-Speziari
Bruno Jérôme*
Affiliation:
Université de Paris II Panthéon Assas, LARGEPA-IRGEI Paris II
Véronique Jérôme-Speziari*
Affiliation:
Université de Paris-Sud XI, LARGEPA-IRGEI Paris II
*
Bruno Jérôme, Université de Paris II Panthéon-Assas, 1 rue d'Ulm, 75005-Paris, France. Institut de Recherche sur la Gouvernance et l'Economie des Institutions (IRGEI) et Laboratoire de Recherche en Sciences de Gestion Panthéon-Assas (LARGEPA), bruno.jerome@gmail.com.
Véronique Jérôme-Speziari, Université de Paris Sud XI, 54 Bld Desgranges, BP 104, 92331, Sceaux Cedex, France. LARGEPA, 13, avenue Bosquet 75007 Paris, France. Veronique.jerome@gmail.com.
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Résumé. Prévoir le vote en tant que révélation des préférences des citoyens dans les choix collectifs permet d'évaluer les chances de succès des sortants ou de l'opposition et d'anticiper les politiques publiques futures. Dans cet article, nous donnons une prévision de l'élection présidentielle de 2007 en France à partir d'une fonction de vote mobilisant les apports de la théorie des choix publics et de la science politique des comportements électoraux. Les prévisions générées au niveau territorial sont plus pertinentes pour le second tour que pour le premier tour. Nous offrons quelques éléments d'explication et des pistes d'amélioration pour 2012.

Abstract. Forecasting votes understood as citizens revealed preferences in collective choices allow to evaluate electoral success opportunities both for incumbents and opposition and to anticipate future public policies. In this paper, we provide forecasts for the 2007 French presidential election gathering contributions from Public Choice theory and Political science dealing with electoral behaviors. Forecasts generated at a sub-national level exhibit more accuracy at the second round than at the first one. We propose some explanation and improvements for 2012.

Type
Symposium: Electoral Forecasting and the 2007 French Presidential Elections
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 43 , Issue 1 , March 2010 , pp. 163 - 186
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Références bibliographiques

Alesina, A. 1987. «Economic Policy in a two-Party System as a Repeated Games». Quarterly Journal of Economics : 651–678.Google Scholar
Alesina, A. et Rosenthal, H.. 1989. «Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy». American Political Science Review 83, juin : 373–98.Google Scholar
Aranson, P. H. 1990. «Rational ignorance in Politics, Economics, and Law». Journal des économistes et des études humaines 1.1 : 25–42.Google Scholar
Aubin, C., Berdot, J.-P., Goyeau, D. et Lafay, J.-D.. 1985. «Un modèle politicoéconomique de la France 1966–1982». Rapport pour la Direction générale à la recherche scientifique et technique, Irape. Université de Poitiers.Google Scholar
Baltagli, B. H. 1995. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. New York : John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Besley, T. et Case, A.. 1995. «Incumbent behaviour: vote-seeking, tax-setting, and yardstick competition». American Economic Review 85.1 : 25–45.Google Scholar
Blais, A. 2004. «Stategic Voting in the 2002 French Presidential Election». Dans The French Voter, dir. Lewis-Beck, M. S.. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire et New York : Palgrave, 93–109.Google Scholar
Blais, A., Nadeau, R., Gidengil, E. et Nevitte, N.. 2001. «Measuring Strategic voting in Multiparty Plurality Elections». Electoral Studies 20 : 343–352.Google Scholar
Bois, P. 1961. Paysans de l'Ouest, Études rurales. Paris, 3.Google Scholar
Borooah, V. et Van der Ploeg, F.. 1981. «The Changing Criteria of Economic Success : Performances and Popularity in British Politics». Econometric Society. Amsterdam, du 31 août au 4 septembre.Google Scholar
Buchanan, J. M. 1999. «An economist's approach to scientific politics». Dans Politics as Public Choice, The collected Works of J. M. Buchanan. 13. Chicago : Liberty Fund, 3–13.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. E. 1992. «Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States». American Journal of Political Science 36, 2, mai, 386–407.Google Scholar
Campbell, A., Converse, P., Miller, W. et Stokes, D.. 1960. The American voter. New York : Wiley.Google Scholar
Chappell, H. W. et Keech, W. R.. 1985. «A new view on political accountability for economic performance». American Political Science Review 79.1 : 10–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, A. 1957. «An economic theory of democracy». New York : Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Fair, R. 1978. «The Effects of Economic Event on Votes for President». Review of Economic and Statistics 60 : 159–173.Google Scholar
Fauvelle-Aymar, C. et Lewis-Beck, M. S. 1997. «L'Iowa donne l'opposition gagnante». Libération 4978, 23 mai, 15.Google Scholar
Fiorina, M. P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven : Yale University Press, 5.Google Scholar
Frey, B. S. 1978. «Politico-economic models and cycles.» Journal of Public Economics 9 : 208–220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goguel, F. 1969. Modernisation économique et comportement politique. Paris : Presses de la FNSP.Google Scholar
Goguel, F. 1981. 1983. Chroniques électorales. 3 tomes.Paris : Presses de la FNSP.Google Scholar
Goyeau, D. 1985. «Impact of official forecasts on private expectations: the paradox of manipulation. The french case: 1965–1982». European Journal of Political Economy 1/3 : 343–358.Google Scholar
Grofman, B. 2004. «Reflections on Public Choice.» Public Choice 118 : 31–51.Google Scholar
Hibbs, D. A. 1977. «Political parties and macroeconomic policy». American Political Science Review, décembre, 1467–1487.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbs, D. A. 1982. «On the Demand for Economic Outcomes : Macroeconomics Outcomes and Mass Political Support in the United States, Great Britain, and Germany». Journal of Politics 44 : 426–462.Google Scholar
Hibbs, D. A. 1987. «The political Economy of Industrial Democracies». Cambridge : Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Holbrook, T. M. 1991. «Presidential Elections in Space and Time». American Journal of Political Science 35 : 91–109.Google Scholar
Jérôme, B., Lafay, J.-D. et Lewis-Beck, M. S.. 1993. Dans Lafay, J.-D., «Les prévisions des modèles politico-économiques». Le Figaro, 19 mars.Google Scholar
Jérôme, B., Jérôme-Speziari, V. et Lewis-Beck, M.. 1999. «Polls fail in France : forecasts of the 1997 Legislative election». International Journal of Forecasting 15 : 163–174.Google Scholar
Jérôme, B., Jérôme-Speziari, V. et Lewis-Beck, M. S.. 2001. «Évaluation économique et vote en France et en Allemagne». Dans L'Opinion européenne 2001. Paris : Presses de sciences Po, avril : 101–122.Google Scholar
Jérôme, B., Jérôme-Speziari, V. et Lewis-Beck, M. S.. 2003. «Reordering the French Election Calendar : Forecasting the Consequences for 2002». European Journal of Political Research, 42, 3, mai, 425–440.Google Scholar
Jérôme, B. et Jérôme-Speziari, V.. 2003. «A Le Pen Vote Function for the 2002 Presidential election : a way to reduce uncertainty». French Politics 1 : 247–251.Google Scholar
Jérôme, B. et Jérôme-Speziari, V.. 2004a. «La modélisation des effets du changement de calendrier électoral : une approche politico-économique». Dans Les systèmes électoraux : permanence et innovation, dir. Laurent, A. et Frognier, H.-P.. Paris : l'Harmattan.Google Scholar
Jérôme, B. et Jérôme-Speziari, V.. 2004b. «2002 Election Forecast, lessons from the Political Economy Model». Dans The French Voter before and after the 2002 Elections, ed. Lewis-Beck, M. S.. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire et New York : Palgrave, 178–204.Google Scholar
Jérôme, B. et Jérôme-Speziari, V.. 2010. «Forecasting partisan dynamics in Europe». International Journal of Forecasting, à paraître.Google Scholar
Jones, R. J. 2007. «The State of Presidential Election Forecasting». Paper prepared for the 27th International Symposium on Forecasting. Du 24 au 27 juin, New York.Google Scholar
Key, V.O. 1964. «Politics, Parties, and Pressure Group.». New York : Crowell.Google Scholar
Key, V.O. 1966. «The responsible electorate» New York : Vintage.Google Scholar
Kirchgässner, G. 1985. «Rationality, causality, and the relation between economic conditions and the popularity of parties : an empirical investigations for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1971–1982». European Economic Review 28 : 243–268.Google Scholar
Kirchgässner, G. 1986. «Economic Conditions and the Popularity of West Germany, a survey». European Journal of Political Research 14 : 421–439.Google Scholar
Kramer, G. H. 1971. «Short-Term Fluctuations in United-States Voting Behavior, 1896–1964». American Political Science Review 65 : 131–143.Google Scholar
Lafay, J.-D. et Jérôme, B.. 1991. «Qualité de la gestion municipale et résultats électoraux des maires sortants: analyse empirique des élections de mars 1989». Economie 1991 : Université de Perpignan.Google Scholar
Lafay, J.-D. et Lecaillon, J.. 1990. «Economie et popularité en France». Association française de science politique, octobre.Google Scholar
Lazarsfeld, P., Berelson, B. et Gaudet, H.. 1944. The people's choice New York : Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M. S. 1985. «Un modèle de prévision des élections législatives françaises avec une application pour 1986». Revue française de science politique 35 : 1080–1091.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M. S. 2005. «Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice». British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7 : 145–164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M. S. et Paldam, M.. 2000. «Economic voting : an introduction». Electoral Studies 19 : 113–121.Google Scholar
Mingat, A. et Salmon, P.. 1988. «Alternate electorates in the context of residential mobility». Public Choice 59.1 : 61–82.Google Scholar
Mueller, D. C. 2003. Public Choice III. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Nannestad, P. et Paldam, M.. 1994. «The VP-Function : a Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years». Public Choice. 79, 3–4 : 213–245.Google Scholar
Niskanen, W. 1975. «Economics and fiscal effects on the popular vote for President». Working paper n°25. Graduate School of Policy, University of California, Berkeley.Google Scholar
Nordhaus, W. D. 1972. «The political business cycle». Cowles foundation Discussion paper n°333, Yale University, 4 avril.Google Scholar
Nordhaus, W. D. 1975. «The political business cycle». Review of economic studies, 42, avril, 169–190.Google Scholar
Rosa, J.-J. et Amson, D.. 1976. «Conditions économiques et élections : une analyse politico-économique.1920–1973». Revue française de science politique 26 : 1101–1124.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, S. J. 1983. Forecasting Presidential Elections. New Haven et London : Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Salmon, P. 1987. «Decentralisation as an incentive Scheme». Oxford Review of Economic Policy 3.2 : 24–43.Google Scholar
Salmon, P. 1991. «Checks and balances and international openness». The Competitive State: Villa Colombella Papers on Competitive Politics. Dans Breton, A., Galeotti, G., Salmon, P. et Wintrobe, R., dir., Dordrecht-Boston : Kluwer, 169–184Google Scholar
Siegfried, A. 1913. Tableau Politique de la France de l'Ouest sous la troisième République. Paris : Armand Colin.Google Scholar
Simon, H. 1957. Models on Man : social and rational. New York : Willey, 13.Google Scholar
Tiebout, C. M. 1956. «A pure theory of local expenditures». Journal of Political Economy 64, octobre, 416–424.Google Scholar
Tufte, E. R. 1978. Political control of the economy. Princeton : Princeton University Press.Google Scholar