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A deterministic evaluation of heat stress mitigation and feed cost under climate change within the smallholder dairy sector

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 December 2016

L. York ,
C. Heffernan ,
C. Rymer  and
N. Panda
L. York*
Affiliation:
Livestock Development Group (LDG), Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AR, UK
C. Heffernan
Affiliation:
Livestock Development Group (LDG), Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AR, UK
C. Rymer
Affiliation:
Food Production and Quality Division, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AR, UK
N. Panda
Affiliation:
Department of Animal Nutrition, Faculty of Veterinary Science and Animal Husbandry, Orissa University of Agriculture and Technology, Bhubaneswar 751003, India
*
†E-mail: luke_york@live.com.au
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Abstract

In the global South, dairying is often promoted as a means of poverty alleviation. Yet, under conditions of climate warming, little is known regarding the ability of small-scale dairy producers to maintain production and/or the robustness of possible adaptation options in meeting the challenges presented, particularly heat stress. The authors created a simple, deterministic model to explore the influence of breed and heat stress relief options on smallholder dairy farmers in Odisha, India. Breeds included indigenous Indian (non-descript), low-grade Jersey crossbreed and high-grade Jersey crossbreed. Relief strategies included providing shade, fanning and bathing. The impact of predicted critical global climate parameters, a 2°C and 4°C temperature rise were explored. A feed price scenario was modelled to illustrate the importance of feed in impact estimation. Feed costs were increased by 10% to 30%. Across the simulations, high-grade Jersey crossbreeds maintained higher milk yields, despite being the most sensitive to the negative effects of temperature. Low-capital relief strategies were the most effective at reducing heat stress impacts on household income. However, as feed costs increased the lower-grade Jersey crossbreed became the most profitable breed. The high-grade Jersey crossbreed was only marginally (4.64%) more profitable than the indigenous breed. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding the factors and practical trade-offs that underpin adaptation. The model also highlights the need for hot-climate dairying projects and programmes to consider animal genetic resources alongside environmentally sustainable adaptation measures for greatest poverty impact.

Keywords

Indiaclimate changecowanimal genetic resourcestemperature–humidity index
Type
Research Article
Information
animal , Volume 11 , Issue 5 , May 2017 , pp. 900 - 909
Copyright
© The Animal Consortium 2016 

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Footnotes

a

Present address: School of Veterinary Sciences, University of Bristol, Langford House, Langford, Bristol BS40 5DU, UK.

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