This chapter explores some of the theory's predictions and causal mechanisms using the Resources, Abuse, and Factionalization Dataset (RAFD), an original dataset of all rebel groups that controlled territory during 1980–2003. The data do not allow for an identification of causal effects, but can be used to assess how well the theory corresponds to the observed behavior of rebel groups compared to existing explanations.

The analysis shows that rebel leaders’ access to financing is strongly associated with lower civilian abuse and less risk of factionalization, while lootable resources correspond to more abusiveness and a greater risk of factionalization. The leader's credibility reduces the risk of factionalization, while peace talks increase the risk. To account for possible endogeneity, I use prewar resource endowments as exogenous proxies for leader financing and lootable resources and find similar results. Consistent with the model, the identities and motives of external patrons are systematically related to the leader's credibility and access to financing.

DATA

To create the RAFD dataset, I begin with the universe of cases identified in the Expanded Armed Conflict Dataset (EACD) v2.4 (Cunningham et al. 2009). The EACD dataset is composed of dyads that usually include a state and a rebel group. I restricted the data to include only rebel groups that were coded as controlling territory as some point during 1980–2003. This restriction is important because the theory focuses on the delegation problem between rebel leaders and commanders, which depends on the commander having autonomous access to weapons, manpower, and lootable resources. This excludes most coups as well as small-scale insurgencies.

Relying on the EACD dataset has both limitations and benefits. The dataset overlooks some important rebel groups and many splinter factions, but reduces the risk of bias from selecting a new universe of cases. Most importantly, the EACD dataset ensures compatibility with the larger PRIO dataset, which is commonly used in studies of civil war.

For the set of rebel groups, I created entries for each rebel-year according to the EACD's start and end dates for each group. For example, some Burmese rebel groups formed in the 1940s and remain active to this day.