Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface to the second edition
- Preface to the first edition
- Part One An introduction to political terrorism
- Part Two Some selected problems in the response to terrorism
- 8 Counter-terrorist policies: fundamental choices
- 9 Terrorism and the media: a symbiotic relationship?
- 10 The role of the army in counter-terrorist operations
- 11 The legal regulation of terrorism: international and national measures
- 12 Counter-measures against terrorism: the intelligence function
- 13 Terrorist hostage-takings
- 14 Counter-measures against terrorism: the role of behavioural science research
- 15 State involvement in international terrorism
- 16 The future of political terrorism
- Notes
- Select bibliography
- Index
16 - The future of political terrorism
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 January 2012
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface to the second edition
- Preface to the first edition
- Part One An introduction to political terrorism
- Part Two Some selected problems in the response to terrorism
- 8 Counter-terrorist policies: fundamental choices
- 9 Terrorism and the media: a symbiotic relationship?
- 10 The role of the army in counter-terrorist operations
- 11 The legal regulation of terrorism: international and national measures
- 12 Counter-measures against terrorism: the intelligence function
- 13 Terrorist hostage-takings
- 14 Counter-measures against terrorism: the role of behavioural science research
- 15 State involvement in international terrorism
- 16 The future of political terrorism
- Notes
- Select bibliography
- Index
Summary
The analysis presented in this book has focussed upon identifying the nature of contemporary political terrorism and outlining some of the major policy choices involved in invoking a number of specific counter-terrorist measures. Many of these policy decisions will be made on an assessment of future directions in terrorism and the threats they will pose. Crystal-ball gazing is a pastime fraught with uncertainty and danger. A number of commentators have warned that detailed predictions are almost always inaccurate and it is also possible that those who predict events connected with violence may unconsciously underrate evidence which would lead to unexciting (that is, non-violent predictions). As Carlton has observed:
The least diverting prediction for the future of terrorism would be one that foresaw neither uncontrolled escalation nor deescalation after a dramatic reassertion of authority by sovereign states, but rather one that foresaw a continuing untidy pattern of incidents largely unrelated to one another and each of only transient significance to an increasingly unconcerned world.
Bearing in mind these dangers we must ask ourselves how much value there is in trying to predict the future of terrorism. There are two reasons why such an enterprise should be attempted by as many analysts as possible. The security authorities will obviously be required to make such predictions and the danger is that they will be inaccurate in either of two extremes.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Political TerrorismTheory, Tactics and Counter-Measures, pp. 187 - 210Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 1989