Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-dnltx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T12:00:28.118Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

3 - Risks, Uncertainties, and Precaution

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2014

Darrel Moellendorf
Darrel Moellendorf
Affiliation:
Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Get access

Summary

“It is a world of change in which we live, and a world of uncertainty. We live only by knowing something about the future; while the problems of life, or of conduct at least, arise from the fact that we know so little.”

– Frank H. Knight

Climate change poses risks of catastrophic changes to human communities and ecosystems. Left unmitigated, the risks of climate change are dangerous, in particular to persons who will be made especially vulnerable by the conspiracy of poverty and geography: those residing in huge mega deltas in North Africa and East Asia, or living along major glacier-fed rivers in Asia and South America, or engaged in subsistence agriculture in the arid regions of central and southern Africa. Climate change also threatens mass extinctions of species. But one thing undeniably true about the future climate is that we do not have detailed knowledge about how different it will be from our present climate. That truth gives us pause. If we don't know, how can we plan for adaptation? Why should we take action to mitigate climate change? If this question is asked rhetorically, it sounds like a form of climate change skepticism. The claim that we do not know exactly what is in store for us if climate change is left unmitigated is not false. But the policy conclusion drawn by climate change skeptics most certainly is.

Type
Chapter
Information
The Moral Challenge of Dangerous Climate Change
Values, Poverty, and Policy
 , pp. 62 - 89
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2014

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ramsey, Frank Plumpton, “Truth and Probability,” in The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul Ltd., 1931), pp. 196–198Google Scholar
Weitzman, Martin L. in “A Review of The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change,” Journal of Economic Literature XLV (2007): 703–724CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Knight, Frank H., Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (New York: Hart, Schaffner and Marx; Houghton Mifflin Co., 1921)Google Scholar
Allison, I., et al. The Copenhagen Diagnosis (Sydney: The University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Center, 2009)Google Scholar
Lindzen, Richard S., “Is the Global Warming Alarm Founded on Fact?” in Zedillo, Ernesto, ed., Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution Press, 2008), pp. 21–33Google Scholar
Lin, Bin, et al., “The Iris Hypothesis: A Negative or Positive Cloud Feedback?” Journal of Climate 15 (2002): 3–72.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, James, “Huge Sea Level Rises Are Coming – Unless We Act Now,” New Scientist 2614, (July 25, 2007)Google Scholar
Schneider, Stephen H. and Kuntz-Duriseti, Kristin, “Uncertainty and Climate Change Policy,” in Schneider, Stephen et al., eds., Climate Change Policy: A Survey (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2002), pp. 67–68Google Scholar
Kennedy, Martin, et al., “Snowball Earth Termination by Destabilization of Equatorial Permafrost Methane Clathrate,” Nature 453 (2008): 642–645CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Meehl, Gerald A., et al., “How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?” Science 307 (2005): 1769–1772CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wigely, T. M. L., “The Climate Change Commitment” Science 307 (2005): 1766–1769CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hulme, Mike, Why We Disagree about Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), p. 86CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cline, William, Global Warming and Agriculture (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute, 2007)Google Scholar
Stern, Nicolas, Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, online edition. (accessed October 5, 2012)
Nordhaus, William, A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options of Global Warming Policies (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2008)Google Scholar
Fellner, William, Probability and Profit (Homewood: Richard D. Irwin, Inc., 1965), pp. 140–142Google Scholar
Nozick, Robert, “Newcomb's Problem and Two Principles of Choice” in Rescher, Nicholas, ed., Essays in Honor of Karl G. Hempel (Dordrecht: Kluwer, 1969), pp. 114–146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sunstein, Cass R., Laws of Fear (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p. 110CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rawls, John, Justice as Fairness: A Restatement (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2001), p. 98Google Scholar
Gardiner, Stephen M., “A Core Precautionary Principle,” Journal of Political Philosophy 14 (2006): 33–60CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gardiner, Stephen, et al., Climate Ethics (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010), p. 148Google Scholar
Gollier, Christian and Treich, Nicolas, “Decision-Making under Scientific Uncertainty: The Economics of the Precautionary Principle,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 27 (2003): 77–103CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cranor, Carl F., Regulating Toxic Substances: A Philosophy of the Science and the Law (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), pp. 25–28CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posner, Richard A, Catastrophe: Risk and Response (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004), p. 161Google Scholar
Manson, Neil A., “Formulating the Precautionary Principle,” Environmental Ethics 24 (2002): 192–202CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lomborg, Bjørn, Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2008), p. 160Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×