Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- Preface
- 1 What is the problem?
- 2 What is chance?
- 3 Order out of chaos
- 4 Chaos out of order
- 5 What is probability?
- 6 What can very small probabilities tell us?
- 7 Can Intelligent Design be established scientifically?
- 8 Statistical laws
- 9 God's action in the quantum world
- 10 The human use of chance
- 11 God's chance
- 12 The challenge to chance
- 13 Choice and chance
- 14 God and risk
- References
- Further reading
- Index
5 - What is probability?
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 June 2012
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- Preface
- 1 What is the problem?
- 2 What is chance?
- 3 Order out of chaos
- 4 Chaos out of order
- 5 What is probability?
- 6 What can very small probabilities tell us?
- 7 Can Intelligent Design be established scientifically?
- 8 Statistical laws
- 9 God's action in the quantum world
- 10 The human use of chance
- 11 God's chance
- 12 The challenge to chance
- 13 Choice and chance
- 14 God and risk
- References
- Further reading
- Index
Summary
Theologically important arguments sometimes depend on the correctness of probability calculations. In order to evaluate these arguments it is necessary to know something about elementary probability theory, and in particular, about mistakes which are often made. In this brief, non-technical, chapter I introduce some basic ideas of measuring probability and then identify several common fallacies. These involve the importance of the assumption of independence, conditionality and the so-called prosecutor's fallacy.
TWO KINDS OF PROBABILITY
Chance is the general-purpose word we use when we can see no causal explanation for what we observe. Hitherto I have not needed to quantify our uncertainties but we shall shortly move into territory where everything depends on exactly how large these uncertainties are. I have already spoken of probability in unspecific terms but now I must take the next step. Probability is a numerical measure of uncertainty and numerical probabilities have been used extensively in theological discussions. As we shall see shortly, there are events, such as the appearance of life on this planet, for which the way in which probabilities are calculated is absolutely crucial. Certain events are claimed to have extremely small probabilities and on their validity hang important consequences for what we believe about life on earth or, even, the existence of God. Many of the arguments deployed are often little more than rather wild subjective opinions, so it is vital to be as precise as possible about probability statements.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- God, Chance and PurposeCan God Have It Both Ways?, pp. 67 - 76Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2008