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14 - Uncertainty

from Part III - Mechanical Minds

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 September 2009

Jon Doyle
Affiliation:
North Carolina State University
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Summary

The preceding development of mental mechanics does not require determinism of mechanical systems. It instead requires only that motion satisfy mechanical relationships independent of determinism requirements.

The preceding chapters also illustrated several sources of possible indeterminacy. Reasoning, whether habitual or deliberate, can produce indeterminism when several reasons apply at the same instant, requiring serialization or conflict resolution. In addition, rational deliberation can result in several possible self-constructions from reasoning rules; conservative update in response to reasoned changes can follow multiple resolutions; and volition can encompass multiple choices of action on the basis of the same desires and intentions. These sources of mechanical indeterminism complement the forms of indeterminism acknowledged in traditional mechanics, including situations of indeterministic collapse and bifurcation considered in continuum mechanics and the pervasive indeterminacy of quantum physics. All of these forms of indeterminacy represent theoretical allowances of multiple possibilities that stand separate from uncertainties arising from the practicalities of measurement connected with repeatability and resolution of measuring apparati.

From the viewpoint of psychology, mechanical indeterminism generates what one can call a “kinematical” notion of uncertainty, in which one seeks to measure the amount of indeterminism, or degree of uncertainty about predictions introduced by indeterminism. In the simplest terms, qualities of motion shared by all possible histories represent certain predictions about motion, while qualities exhibited by some histories but not by others represent uncertain predictions about motion. The kinematic conception of uncertainty provides means for comparing these degrees of certainty and uncertainty in quantitative terms.

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Extending Mechanics to Minds
The Mechanical Foundations of Psychology and Economics
, pp. 346 - 370
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2006

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  • Uncertainty
  • Jon Doyle, North Carolina State University
  • Book: Extending Mechanics to Minds
  • Online publication: 21 September 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511546952.016
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  • Uncertainty
  • Jon Doyle, North Carolina State University
  • Book: Extending Mechanics to Minds
  • Online publication: 21 September 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511546952.016
Available formats
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To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Uncertainty
  • Jon Doyle, North Carolina State University
  • Book: Extending Mechanics to Minds
  • Online publication: 21 September 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511546952.016
Available formats
×