Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-xtgtn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T14:42:36.747Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Failure of “Yugoslavia’s Last Chance”: Ante Marković and his Reformists in the 1990 Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 July 2022

Josip Glaurdić Open the ORCID record for Josip Glaurdić [Opens in a new window] ,
Vladimir Filipović  and
Christophe Lesschaeve
Josip Glaurdić*
Affiliation:
University of Luxembourg
Vladimir Filipović
Affiliation:
Libertas International University, Croatia
Christophe Lesschaeve
Affiliation:
University of Luxembourg
*
Corresponding author: Josip Glaurdić, email: josip.glaurdic@uni.lu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The last Prime Minister of Yugoslavia Ante Marković was considered by many within the country and in the international community to be Yugoslavia’s last chance for a peaceful transition toward democracy and capitalism. In spite of his popularity, the Reformist party he created failed decisively in the first democratic elections of 1990. We expose the reasons for this failure by analyzing electoral, economic, and sociodemographic data on the level of more than two hundred Yugoslav municipalities where the Reformists put forward their candidates. Our analysis shows that the party’s failure had little to do with the voters’ exposure to the effects of the free market reforms undertaken by Marković’s federal government during this period. Instead, the Reformists’ results were largely determined by the communities’ ethnic makeup and interethnic balance. The Reformists suffered at the hands of a strong negative campaign by the Serbian regime of Slobodan Milošević, and they were squeezed out by the ethnically based parties that benefited from voters behaving strategically in the electoral marketplace dominated by questions of nationalism. The analysis presented here offers important lessons for our understanding of Yugoslavia’s breakup, post-communist transitions in general, and electoral politics in societies on the verge of ethnic conflict.

Keywords

YugoslaviaelectionsAnte Markovićreformists
Type
Article
Information
Nationalities Papers , Volume 52 , Issue 1 , January 2024 , pp. 40 - 59
Check for updates
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Association for the Study of Nationalities

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Andjelic, Neven. 2003. Bosnia-Herzegovina: The End of a Legacy. London: Frank Cass.Google Scholar
Arnautović, Suad. 1996. Izbori u Bosni i Hercegovini ’90: Analiza izbornog procesa. Sarajevo: Fakultet političkih nauka.Google Scholar
Aziri, Etem. 2013. “Izborni sistem i izbori u Republici Makedoniji.” Političke perspektive 3 (1): 7–21.Google Scholar
Bećirović, Dragomir. 1990. “Antina obećanja niko ne shvata ozbiljno.” Politika, October 14.Google Scholar
Borba . 1990a. “Reformisti u ilegali.” September 3.Google Scholar
Borba . 1990b. “Program vlade program saveza.” September 11.Google Scholar
Borba . 1990c. “Predstavnici UJDI-a kod Markovića.” September 15.Google Scholar
Borba . 1990d. “Ko sve izlazi na izbore.” December 1.Google Scholar
Brailo, Luka. 1990. “Marš crvenih gardista.” Nedjeljna Dalmacija, November 18.Google Scholar
Burg, Steven L., and Berbaum, Michael L.. 1989. “Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia.” American Political Science Review 83 (2): 535–554.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Čakić, Kosta. 1990. “Od straha do nade u pobjedu.” Vjesnik, December 6.Google Scholar
Cerović, D. 1990. “Sama sumnja nije argument.” Borba, November 3.Google Scholar
Čolak, Andrija. 1990a. “Marković u stranačkom kolu.” Vjesnik, August 9.Google Scholar
Čolak, Andrija. 1990b. “Šešelj na juriš osvaja govornice.” Vjesnik, September 21.Google Scholar
Cornell, John A. 2002. Experiments with Mixtures: Designs, Models, and the Analysis of Mixture Data. New York, NY: Wiley.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ćosić, Dobrica. 1990. “Uslovi za četvrtu Jugoslaviju.” NIN, August 3.Google Scholar
Duch, Raymond M. 1995. “Economic Chaos and the Fragility of Democratic Transition in Former Communist Regimes.” Journal of Politics 57 (1): 121–158.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Đukanović, Milo. 1990. “Vladina partija raskola.” NIN, September 21.Google Scholar
Đurić, Dragan. 1990a. “Biser Balkana.” Vjesnik, June 30.Google Scholar
Đurić, Dragan. 1990b. “Četiri dana do odluke Makedonaca.” Vjesnik, November 7.Google Scholar
Đurić, Dragan. 1990c. “Prestrojavanje za drugi krug.” Večernji list, November 20.Google Scholar
Esteban, Joan, Mayoral, Laura, and Ray, Debraj. 2012. “Ethnicity and Conflict: An Empirical Study.” American Economic Review 102 (4): 1310–1342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Esteban, Joan, and Ray, Debraj. 2011. “Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization.” American Economic Review 101 (4): 1345–1374.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey, and Whitefield, Stephen. 1993. “Identifying the Bases of Party Competition in Eastern Europe.” British Journal of Political Science 23 (4): 521–548.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Filipović, Vladimir. 2021. ““Markovićeva stranka”: Savez reformskih snaga Jugoslavije – osnivanje, program i izbori 1990.” Politička misao – Croatian Political Science Review 58 (1): 27–55.Google Scholar
Gagnon, V. P. Jr. 2004. The Myth of Ethnic War: Serbia and Croatia in the 1990s. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Glaurdić, Josip. 2011. The Hour of Europe: Western Powers and the Breakup of Yugoslavia. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Goati, Vladimir. 1998. Izbori u SRJ od 1990. do 1998.: Volja građana ili izborna manipulacija. Podgorica: CEMI.Google Scholar
Grubić, B., and Preradović, R.. 1990a. “Glas za reformu, glas za budućnost.” Oslobođenje, July 30.Google Scholar
Grubić, B., and Preradović, R.. 1990b. “Dobrodošla stranka.” Oslobođenje, July 30.Google Scholar
Haug, Hilde Katrine. 2012. Creating a Socialist Yugoslavia: Tito, Communist Leadership and the National Question. London: I.B. Tauris.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herceg, Nevenko, and Tomić, Zoran. 1998. Izbori u Bosni i Hercegovini. Mostar: Sveučilište u Mostaru.Google Scholar
Heyns, Barbara, and Bialecki, Ireneusz. 1991. “Solidarność: Reluctant Vanguard or Makeshift Coalition?” American Political Science Review 85 (2): 351–370.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inicijativni odbor SRSJ. 1990. “Pridružite se.” Borba, August 22.Google Scholar
Janojlić, D. 1990. “Antisrpska politika u obrani jugoslovenstva.” Politika, August 9.Google Scholar
Jergović, Miljenko. 1990. “Masoni, špijuni, doušnici i raja.” Nedjeljna Dalmacija, September 23.Google Scholar
Jović, Borisav. 1995. Poslednji dani SFRJ: Izvodi iz dnevnika. Belgrade: Politika.Google Scholar
Kapidžić, Damir. 2014. “Ethnic Practice in Electoral Politics: Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 1990 Presidency Elections.” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 14 (4): 556–584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitschelt, Herbert. 1992. “The Formation of Party Systems in East Central Europe.” Politics and Society 20 (1): 7–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kopstein, Jeffrey, and Richter, Karl-Otto. 1992. “Communist Social Structure and Post-Communist Elections: Voting for Reunification in East Germany.” Studies in Comparative Communism 25 (4): 363–380.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kukić, Leonard. 2019. “The Last Yugoslavs: Ethnic Diversity, National Identity, and Civil War.” LSE Economic History Working Papers No. 300: 1–64.Google Scholar
Linz, Juan J., and Stepan, Alfred. 1996. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marković, Ante. 1990. Jugoslovenske promene: govori i izlaganja Ante Markovića, Predsednika Saveznog izvršnog veća. Belgrade: Borba.Google Scholar
Markowski, Radosław and Toka, Gabor. 1998. “Left Turn in Poland and Hungary Five Years after the Collapse of Communism.” Sisyphus 1 (9): 75–99.Google Scholar
Merkel, Wolfgang. 2010. Systemtransformation. Eine Einführung in die Theorie und Empirie der Transformationsforschung. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.Google Scholar
Mićunović, Vladan. 1990a. “Nude i sadašnjost.” Oslobođenje, September 25.Google Scholar
Mićunović, Vladan. 1990b. “Dolje rad, živjela politika.” Oslobođenje, October 4.Google Scholar
Montalvo, José G., and Reynal-Querol, Marta. 2005. “Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars.” American Economic Review 95 (3): 796–816.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mrđen, Ivan. 1990. “Dve rukavice u lice.” Novosti, June 7.Google Scholar
Ninčić, Roksanda. 1990a. “Kako pobediti, a ne izgubiti.” Borba, August 4.Google Scholar
Ninčić, Roksanda. 1990b. “Frtalj hljeba i džirlo kampanje.” Borba, November 12.Google Scholar
Oslobođenje . 1990. “Prilog Izbori 90.” October 30.Google Scholar
Pacek, Alexander. 1994. “Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Politics in East Central Europe.” American Journal of Political Science 38 (3): 723–744.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pejanović, Mirko. 2004. Through Bosnian Eyes: The Political Memoir of a Bosnian Serb. West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University Press.Google Scholar
Powers, Denise V., and Cox, James H.. 1997. “Echoes from the Past: The Relationship between Satisfaction with Economic Reforms and Voting Behavior in Poland.” American Political Science Review 91 (3): 617–633.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 1996. “Public Support for Economic Reforms in Poland.” Comparative Political Studies 29 (5): 520–544.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Radovanović, I. 1990a. “U stranku sa ostavkom.” Borba, May 29.Google Scholar
Radovanović, I. 1990b. “Antisrpska avantura.” Borba, June 2–3.Google Scholar
Rakočević-Novaković, S. 1990a. “Još 55 dana do naše pobjede.” Oslobođenje, September 25.Google Scholar
Rakočević-Novaković, S. 1990b. “Dodatna nervoza s televizije.” Oslobođenje, December 8.Google Scholar
Ramet, Sabrina P. 2006. The Three Yugoslavias: State-Building and Legitimation, 1918-2005. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press.Google Scholar
Sasso, Alfredo. 2020. “The Political Dimension of Ante Marković’s Reform Project: ‘We Must Develop Democracy and a Third Yugoslavia.’” Contemporary Southeastern Europe 7 (1): 25–48.Google Scholar
Savezni zavod za statistiku. 1966. Žrtve rata 1941 – 1945. (Rezultati popisa). Belgrade: Savezni zavod za statistiku.Google Scholar
Sekulić, Duško, Massey, Garth, and Hodson, Randy. 1994. “Who Were the Yugoslavs? Failed Sources of a Common Identity in the Former Yugoslavia.” American Sociological Review 59 (1): 83–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sekulić, Zoran. 1990. “Ima li kape za Radovana.” Duga, September 28.Google Scholar
Stojanović, Nenad. 2014. “When Non-Nationalist Voters Support Ethno-Nationalist Parties: The 1990 Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a Prisoner’s Dilemma Game.” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 14 (4): 607–625.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tasić, Predrag. 1994. Kako je ubijena druga Jugoslavija. Skopje, North Macedonia: Self-published.Google Scholar
Tucker, Joshua A. 2006. Regional Economic Voting. Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, 1990-1999. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Večernji list . 1990. “Marković osvaja Srbiju.” September 7.Google Scholar
Verovska, E. 1990a. “Novi inicijativni odbori SRSJ.” Borba, August 10.Google Scholar
Verovska, E. 1990b. “Program za celu zemlju.” Borba, September 15.Google Scholar
Vlahović, B. 1990. “Igra na nacionalnu kartu.” Večernji list, November 9.Google Scholar
Vojičić, Branko. 1990a. “Komunisti na brisanom prostoru.” Vjesnik, September 3.Google Scholar
Vojičić, Branko. 1990b. “Traže se zvijezde.” Vjesnik, October 24.Google Scholar
Vojičić, Branko. 1990c. “Igra crnogorska karta.” Vjesnik, December 8.Google Scholar
Vujović, Miroslav. 1990. “Ključna točka reforme.” NIN, November 28.Google Scholar
Vuković, Dragoljub. 1990a. “Triling partijskih asova.” Borba, November 24.Google Scholar
Vuković, Dragoljub. 1990b. “Decembarska završnica Januarske partije.” Borba, December 1.Google Scholar
Whitefield, Stephen. 2002. “Political Cleavages and Post-Communist Politics.” Annual Review of Political Science 5: 181–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woodward, Susan L. 1995. Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Zimmermann, Warren. 1996. Origins of a Catastrophe: Yugoslavia and its Destroyers – America’s Last Ambassador Tells What Happened and Why. New York, NY: Times Books.Google Scholar