Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-sxzjt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T04:25:50.364Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Bolsonaro Voter: Issue Positions and Vote Choice in the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 July 2020

Lucio R. Rennó*
Affiliation:
Lucio R. Rennó is an associate professor at the Instituto de Ciência Política, Universidade de Brasília.

Abstract

The 2018 Brazilian elections saw the rise to power of Jair Bolsonaro, yet another conservative politician who won an election in recent years. What were the ideological underpinnings of the Bolsonaro vote? Was his support based exclusively on resentment toward the Workers’ Party? This article uses a unique public opinion dataset, the 2018 Brazilian Electoral Panel Study, to explore how positions on divisive issues related to social, political, and cultural factors influenced vote choice and Bolsonarismo—affection toward Bolsonaro supporters—in the 2018 Brazilian presidential elections. Results indicate that in addition to resentment against the Workers’ Party, a cultural backlash perspective, and strict views on law and order, as well as economic liberalism and rejection of social policies, were the characteristics of support for Bolsonaro.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© The Author, 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the University of Miami

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Conflict of interest: Author Lucio Rennó declares none.

References

Akkerman, Agnes, Zaslove, Andrej, and Spruyt, Bram. 2017. “We the People” or “We the Peoples”? A Comparison of Support for the Populist Radical Right and Populist Radical Left in the Netherlands. Swiss Political Science Review 23, 4: 377403.10.1111/spsr.12275CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alston, Lee, Melo, Marcus, Mueller, Bernardo, and Pereira, Carlos. 2016. Brazil in Transition: Beliefs, Leadership, and Institutional Change. Princeton: Princeton University Press.10.23943/princeton/9780691162911.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ames, Barry, Baker, Andy, and Rennó, Lucio R.. 2008. The “Quality” of Elections in Brazil: Policy, Performance, Pageantry, or Pork? In Democratic Brazil Revisited, ed. Timothy, J. Power and Peter, R. Kingstone. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. 107–36.10.2307/j.ctt6wr9x1.11CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aragão, Alexandre. 2018. Entre ampliar ou cortar Bolsa Família, Bolsonaro muda de opinião em apenas dois dias. Aos Fatos, August 16. https://aosfatos.org/noticias/entre-ampliar-ou-cortar-bolsa-familia-bolsonaro-muda-de-opiniao-em-apenas-dois-dias/. Accessed February 28, 2020.Google Scholar
Baker, Andy, and Greene, Kenneth F.. 2015. Positional Issue Voting in Latin America. In The Latin American Voter, ed. Carlin, Ryan, Singer, Matthew, and Zechmeister, Elizabeth. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. 173–94.Google Scholar
Baker, Andy, Ames, Barry, and Rennó, Lucio R.. 2006. Social Context and Campaign Volatility in New Democracies: Networks and Neighborhoods in Brazil’s 2002 Elections. American Journal of Political Science 50, 2: 382–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baquero, Marcello, and Stumpf González, Rodrigo. 2011. Eleições, estabilidade democrática e socialização política no Brasil: análise longitudinal da persistência de valores nas eleições presidenciais de 2002 a 2010. Opinião Pública 17, 2: 369–99.10.1590/S0104-62762011000200004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bohn, Simone R. 2011. Social Policy and Vote in Brazil: Bolsa Família and the Shifts in Lula’s Electoral Base. Latin American Research Review 46, 1: 5479.10.1353/lar.2011.0003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Borges, André, and Vidigal, Robert. 2018. Do lulismo ao antipetismo? Polarização, partidarismo e voto nas eleições presidenciais brasileiras. Opinião Pública 24, 1: 5389.10.1590/1807-0191201824153CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caleiro, João Pedro. 2018. Bolsonaro promete fim do coitadismo de negro, gay, mulher e nordestino. Exame, October 27. https://exame.abril.com.br/brasil/bolsonaro-promete-fim-do-coitadismo-de-negro-gay-mulher-e-nordestino. Accessed February 28, 2020.Google Scholar
Carreirão, Yan de Souza, and D’Alva Kinzo, Maria. 2004. Partidos políticos, preferência partidária e decisão eleitoral no Brasil (1989/2002). Dados 47, 1: 131–67.10.1590/S0011-52582004000100004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corrêa, Diego Sanches. 2015. Os custos eleitorais do Bolsa Família: reavaliando seu impacto sobre a eleição presidencial de 2006. Opinião Pública 21, 3: 514–34.10.1590/1807-01912015213514CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cramer, Katherine J. 2016. The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of Scott Walker. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.10.7208/chicago/9780226349251.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doyle, David, and Wiesehomeier, Nina. 2014. Profiling the Electorate: Ideology and Attitudes of Rightwing Voters. In Luna and Rovira Kaltwasser 2014b.Google Scholar
Finkel, Steven. 1993. Reexamining the “Minimal Effects” Model in Recent Presidential Campaigns. Journal of Politics 55: 121.10.2307/2132225CrossRefGoogle Scholar
G1. 2018. Bolsonaro diz que política de cotas é ‘equivocada’ e que política de combate ao preconceito é ‘coitadismo’. October 24. https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/noticia/2018/10/24/bolsonaro-diz-ser-contra-cotas-e-que-politica-de-combate-ao-preconceito-e-coitadismo.ghtml. Accessed February 28, 2020.Google Scholar
Gandesha, Samir. 2018. Understanding Right and Left Populism. In Critical Theory and Authoritarian Populism, ed. Morelock, Jeremiah. London: University of Westminster Press. 4970.Google Scholar
Gidron, Noam, and Hall, Peter A.. 2017. The Politics of Social Status: Economic and Cultural Roots of the Populist Right. British Journal of Sociology 68, S1: 5784.Google Scholar
Gidron, Noam, and Mijs, Jonathan J. B.. 2019. Do Changes in Material Circumstances Drive Support for Populist Radical Parties? Panel Data Evidence from the Netherlands During the Great Recession, 2007–2015. European Sociological Review 35, 5: 637–50.10.1093/esr/jcz023CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greene, Kenneth F. 2011. Campaign Persuasion and Nascent Partisanship in Mexico’s New Democracy. American Journal of Political Science 55, 2: 398416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hopkins, Daniel J., and Hainmueller, Jens. 2014. Voter Attitudes Toward Immigration. Annual Review of Political Science 17: 225–49.Google Scholar
Hunter, Wendy, and Power, Timothy J.. 2019. Bolsonaro and Brazil’s Illiberal Backlash. Journal of Democracy 30, 1: 6882.10.1353/jod.2019.0005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald, and Norris, Pippa. 2016. Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash. Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP16-026. Cambridge: Harvard Kennedy School.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald, and Norris, Pippa. 2017. Trump and the Populist Authoritarian Parties: The Silent Revolution in Reverse. Perspectives on Politics 15, 2: 443–54.10.1017/S1537592717000111CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto, Sood, Gaurav, and Lelkes, Yphtach. 2012. Affect, Not Ideology: A Social Identity Perspective on Polarization. Public Opinion Quarterly 76, 3: 405–31.10.1093/poq/nfs038CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto, Lelke, Yphtach, Levendusky, Matthew, Malhotra, Neil, and Westwood, Sean H.. 2019. The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States. Annual Review of Political Science 22: 129–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Licio, Elaine Cristina, Rennó, Lucio R., and de Castro, Henrique Carlos de O.. 2009. Bolsa Família e voto na eleição presidencial de 2006: em busca do elo perdido. Opinião Pública 15, 1: 3154.10.1590/S0104-62762009000100002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luna, Juan Pablo, and Rovira Kaltwasser, Cristóbal. 2014a. Introduction. The Right in Contemporary Latin America: A Framework for Analysis. In Luna and Rovira Kaltwasser 2014b. 1–22.Google Scholar
Luna, Juan Pablo, and Rovira Kaltwasser, Cristóbal, eds. 2014b. The Resilience of the Latin American Right. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Manza, Jeff, and Crowley, Ned. 2017. Working Class Hero? Interrogating the Social Bases of the Rise of Donald Trump. The Forum 15, 1: 328.10.1515/for-2017-0002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mason, Lilliana. 2018. Ideologues Without Issues: The Polarizing Consequences of Ideological Identities. Public Opinion Quarterly 82: 866–87.10.1093/poq/nfy005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montero, Alfred. 2014. Explaining the Rise and the Decline of Conservatives. In Luna and Rovira Kaltwasser 2014b.Google Scholar
Morgan, Stephen L. 2018. Status Threat, Material Interests, and the 2016 Presidential Vote. Socius 4.Google Scholar
Mudde, Cas. 2004. The Populist Zeitgeist. Government and Opposition 39, 4: 542–63.10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Muis, Jasper, and Immerzeel, Tim. 2017. Causes and Consequences of the Rise of Populist Radical Right Parties and Movements in Europe. Current Sociology 65, 6: 909–30.10.1177/0011392117717294CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mutz, Diana C. 2018. Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains the 2016 Presidential Vote. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, 19: 4330–39.10.1073/pnas.1718155115CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nicolau, Jairo. 2014. Determinantes do voto no primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 2010: uma análise exploratória. Opinião Pública 20, 3: 311–25.10.1590/1807-01912014203311CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2005. Radical Right: Voters and Parties in the Electoral Market. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511615955CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paiva, Denise, Krause, Silvana, and Paz Lameirão, Adriana. 2016. O eleitor antipetista: partidarismo e avaliação retrospectiva. Opinião Pública 22, 3: 638–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peixoto, Vitor, and Rennó, Lucio. 2011. Mobilidade social ascendente e voto: as eleições presidenciais de 2010 no Brasil. Opinião Pública 17, 2: 304–32.10.1590/S0104-62762011000200002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pimentel, Junior, Tadeu Pires, Jairo. 2010. Razão e emoção: o voto na eleição presidencial de 2006. Opinião Pública 16, 2, 516–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Power, Timothy, and Rodrigues-Silveira, Rodrigo. 2019. The Political Right and Party Politics. In Routledge Handbook of Brazilian Politics, ed. Ames, Barry. New York: Routledge. 251–68.Google Scholar
Rennó, Lucio R. 2007. Escândalos e voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 2006. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 260–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rennó, Lucio R. 2011. Corruption and Voting. In Corruption and Democracy in Brazil: The Struggle for Accountability, ed. Power, Timothy J.. Notre Dame: Notre Dame University Press. 5669.Google Scholar
Rennó, Lucio, and Ames, Barry. 2014. PT no purgatório: ambivalência eleitoral no primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais de 2010. Opinião Pública 20, 1: 125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ribeiro, Ednaldo, Carreirão, Yan, and Borba, Julian. 2016. Sentimentos partidários e antipetismo: condicionantes e covariantes. Opinião Pública 22, 3: 603–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosa, Ana Beatriz. 2018. Declaração de Bolsonaro sobre fraude em urnas é “desinformação”, diz procurador. Huffpost, September 17. https://www.huffpostbrasil.com/2018/09/17/declaracao-de-bolsonaro-sobre-fraude-em-urnas-e-desinformacao-dizprocurador_a_23530251. Accessed February 28, 2020.Google Scholar
Samuels, David, and Zucco, Cesar. 2018. Partisans, Antipartisans, and Nonpartisans: Voting Behavior in Brazil. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, André. 1990. Collor na periferia: a volta por cima do populismo? In De Geisel a Collor: o balanço da transição, ed. Lamounier, Bolívar. São Paulo: Hucitec.Google Scholar
Singer, André. 2000. Esquerda e direita no eleitorado brasileiro. São Paulo: Edusp.Google Scholar
Singer, André. 2009. Raízes sociais e ideológicas do lulismo. Novos Estudos CEBRAP 85: 83102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zucco, Cesar. 2015. The Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers in Four Presidential Elections (2002–2014). Brazilian Political Science Review 9, 1: 135–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zucco, Cesar, and Power, Timothy J.. 2013. Bolsa Família and the Shift in Lula’s Electoral Base, 2002–2006: A Reply to Bohn. Latin American Research Review 48, 2: 324.10.1353/lar.2013.0018CrossRefGoogle Scholar