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Chapter 3 introduces our approach to measuring the transparency of deliberations in state legislatures. We discuss our coding strategies and provide descriptive information about our temporal data on the adoption of open deliberation laws and exemptions to those laws. This summary of the data provides important context, including general patterns in the timing and geography of the transparency movement and its recent decline. Importantly, the chapter includes a discussion on enforcement of these laws, demonstrating empirically that they are not written as token gestures toward accountability. They are intended to provide meaningful, powerful mechanisms to keep legislative deliberation public. Finally, we develop event history models of transparency adoption and exemption across the states to better understand the systematic factors associated with the decisions to open or close legislative meetings. These models generalize the historical patterns we uncover in Chapter 2, demonstrating in particular the pivotal role of a powerful press corps in pushing the transparency initiative forward and sustaining it over time.
This article contributes to the growing body of research on social assistance (SA) dynamics by analyzing patterns of SA receipt in China, a middle-income country with a large informal employment sector. Using national low-income household survey data and event history analysis, this study explored the mechanisms underlying exit from Dibao (formally known as Minimum Living Security) and changes in exit probability over time. We found that in the context of an informal economy, the ‘explicit’ change of individual characteristics and employment structure decisively affects receipt duration on the micro and macroeconomic levels, respectively. On the policy level, affected by the informal employment structure, employment services tend to be of low quality and fail to promote Dibao exit effectively. Although the specific Dibao payment strategy, which is used to address the difficulty in means tests, largely curbs the risks of declining working motivation, it considerably increases the possibility of prolonged Dibao use. With this systemic influence of informal employment, a unique pattern of SA receipt characterized by the combination of long-term use and a nondecreasing hazard rate has developed in China.
How will this crackdown affect China’s economic and political prospects? Chapter 6, “All the King’s Men,” examines the determinants of downfall among city-level leaders during Xi’s campaign. My analysis finds a remarkably high turnover rate, indicating extraordinarily stressful conditions and heightened political risks for local leaders. In addition, I find that patronage, not performance, predicts the likelihood of downfall. Facing harsh scrutiny, volatility, and mounting demands, bureaucrats feel paralyzed, precipitating a new problem in Chinese politics – inaction.
Whether men's and women's reciprocation of their intimate partners’ negative and positive affect during conflictual topic discussions accounted for the association between their trait hostility and perpetration of physical intimate partner violence (IPV) was examined within a dyadic model, using concurrent measurement. The work builds on that of Dr. Tom Dishion regarding hostile and coercive interactions in key relationships on risk outcomes and the importance of moment-by-moment influences in social interactions. Using dynamic development systems theory and a community sample of at-risk men (N = 156) and their female partners, the hypothesis that quicker negative and slower positive affect reactivity would account for physical IPV perpetration beyond trait hostility was tested. Results suggest that, for women, quicker negative affect reactivity partially explains the hostility IPV association, whereas for men, trait hostility of both partners best explained their perpetration of physical IPV. No support was found for positive affect reactivity as a protective relationship process for IPV involvement. Findings are in line with other studies indicating men were less likely to engage in negative reciprocity relative to women. Furthermore, findings highlight how both partners’ individual characteristics, communication patterns, and emotion regulation processes germane to the romantic relationship impact the likelihood of experiencing physical IPV.
Using data from Understanding Society and the British Household Panel Survey, this article explores the relationship between working part-time and progression out of low pay for male and female employees using a discrete-time event history model. The results show that working part-time relative to full-time decreases the likelihood of progression out of low pay, defined as earning below two-thirds of the median hourly wage. However, part-time workers who transition to full-time employment experience similar rates of progression to full-time workers. This casts doubt on the idea that part-time workers have lower progression rates because they have lower abilities or work motivation and reinforces the need to address the quality of part-time jobs in the UK labour market. The negative effect of working part-time is greater for men than for women, although women are more at risk of becoming trapped in low pay in the sense that they tend to work part-time for longer periods of time, particularly if they have children. Factors such as childcare policy and Universal Credit (UC) incentivise part-time employment for certain groups, although in the right labour market conditions UC may encourage some part-time workers to increase their working hours.
Given an ageing population and increased participation by women in the labour force, the relationship between unpaid care and the availability of women to the labour force is gaining in importance as an issue. This article assesses the impact of unpaid care on transitions into employment by women aged between 45 and 59 years. It uses the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) from the years 2001–2014 to estimate Cox regression models for 6,201 employed women. The results indicate that women with higher caring responsibilities and women with lower caring responsibilities are heterogeneous in terms of the socio-economic characteristics that they exhibit: higher-intensity care providers tend to have a lower level of educational attainment and a weaker attachment to the labour force than women with less-intensive caring responsibilities. Furthermore, while women with more-intensive caring roles are highly likely to exit the labour market altogether, female carers with less-intensive roles seem to be able to combine work and care better. These results highlight the importance of providing more affordable institutional and professional care services, especially for low- and medium-income families.
Pooled event history analysis (PEHA) allows researchers to study the effects of variables across multiple policies by stacking the data and estimating the parameters in a single model. Yet this approach to modeling policy diffusion implies assumptions about homogeneity that are often violated in reality, such that the effect of a given variable is constant across policies. We relax this assumption and use Monte Carlo simulations to compare common strategies for modeling heterogeneity, testing these strategies with increasing levels of variance. We find that multilevel models with random coefficients produce the best estimates and are a significant improvement over other models. In addition, we show how modeling similar policies as multilevel structures allows researchers to more precisely explore the theoretical implications of heterogeneity across policies. We provide an empirical example of these modeling approaches with a unique data set of 29 antiabortion policies.
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