The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

Toxoplasma gondii infections are common in humans and animals worldwide. Domestic free-range chickens (Gallus domesticus) are excellent sentinels of environmental contamination with T. gondii oocysts because they feed on the ground. Chickens can be easily infected with T. gondii; however, clinical toxoplasmosis is rare in these hosts. Chickens are comparatively inexpensive and thus are good sentinel animals for T. gondii infections on the farms. Here, the authors reviewed prevalence, the persistence of infection, clinical disease, epidemiology and genetic diversity of T. gondii strains isolated from chickens worldwide for the past decade. Data on phenotypic and molecular characteristics of 794 viable T. gondii strains from chickens are discussed, including new data on T. gondii isolates from chickens in Brazil. This paper will be of interest to biologists, epidemiologists, veterinarians and parasitologists.

Antibiotics are designed to affect gut microbiota and subsequently gut homeostasis. However, limited information exists about short- and long-term effects of early antibiotic intervention (EAI) on gut homeostasis (especially for the small intestine) of pigs following antibiotic withdrawal. We investigated the impact of EAI on specific bacterial communities, microbial metabolites and mucosal immune parameters in the small intestine of later-growth-stage pigs fed with diets differing in CP levels. Eighteen litters of piglets were fed creep feed with or without antibiotics from day 7 to day 42. At day 42, pigs within each group were offered a normal- or low-CP diet. Five pigs per group were slaughtered at days 77 and 120. At day 77, EAI increased Enterobacteriaceae counts in the jejunum and ileum and decreased Bifidobacterium counts in the jejunum and ileum (P < 0.05). Moreover, tryptamine, putrescine, secretory immunoglobulin (Ig) A and IgG concentrations in the ileum and interleukin-10 (IL-10) mRNA and protein levels in the jejunum and ileum were decreased in pigs with EAI (P < 0.05). At day 120, EAI only suppressed Clostridium cluster XIVa counts in the jejunum and ileum (P < 0.05). These results suggest that EAI has a short-term effect on specific bacterial communities, amino acid decarboxylation and mucosal immune parameters in the small intestine (particularly in the ileum). At days 77 and 120, feeding a low-CP diet affected Bifidobacterium, Clostridium cluster IV, Clostridium cluster XIVa and Enterobacteriaceae counts in the jejunum or ileum (P < 0.05). Moreover, feeding a low-CP diet increased the concentrations of Igs in the jejunum and decreased pro-inflammatory cytokines levels in the jejunum and ileum (P < 0.05). At day 120, feeding a low-CP diet increased short-chain fatty acid concentrations, reduced ammonia and spermidine concentrations and up-regulated genes related to barrier function in the jejunum and ileum (P < 0.05). These results suggest that feeding a low-CP diet changes specific bacterial communities and intestinal metabolite concentrations and modifies mucosal immune parameters. These findings contribute to our understanding on the duration of the impact of EAI on gut homeostasis and may provide basis data for nutritional modification in young pigs after antibiotic treatment.

Fluid motion has two well-known fundamental processes: the vector transverse process characterized by vorticity, and the scalar longitudinal process consisting of a sound mode and an entropy mode, characterized by dilatation and thermodynamic variables. The existing theories for the sound mode involve the multi-variable issue and its associated difficulty of source identification. In this paper, we define the source of sound inside the fluid by the objective causality inherent in dynamic equations relevant to a longitudinal process, which naturally favours the material time-rate operator $D/Dt$ rather than the local time-rate operator $\unicode[STIX]{x2202}/\unicode[STIX]{x2202}t$, and describes the sound mode by inhomogeneous advective wave equations. The sources of sound physical production inside the fluid are then examined at two levels. For the conventional formulation in terms of thermodynamic variables at the first level, we show that the universal kinematic source can be condensed to a scalar invariant of the surface deformation tensor. Further, in the formulation in terms of dilatation at the second level, we find that the sound mode in viscous and heat-conducting flow has sources from rich nonlinear couplings of vorticity, entropy and surface deformation, which cannot be disclosed at the first level. Preliminary numerical demonstration of the theoretical findings is made for two typical compressible flows, i.e. the interaction of two corotating Gaussian vortices and the unsteady type IV shock/shock interaction. The results obtained in this study provide a new theoretical basis for, and physical insight into, understanding various nonlinear longitudinal processes and the interactions therein.

The majority of neuroimaging studies reported smaller hippocampal volumes in patients with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Our previous study found that PTSD is associated with selective volume loss of the CA3/dentate gyrus subfields However, the causality of smaller hippocampal volumes and PTSD cannot be determined in these studies because of the cross-sectional nature of them. The purpose of this longitudinal study was to determine if PTSD caused hippocampal subfields volume loss following traffic accidents. Volumes of hippocampal subfields in thirty seven traffic accident survivors were measured using 3T MRI in one week after accident, and twenty five of them completed one year follow-up MRI scan. Fourteen participants met the PTSD diagnosis in one year follow-up while other eleven did not met PTSD diagnosis criteria. PTSD was significantly associated with volumes reduction of CA3/dentate gyrus subfield (β=0.244 p=0.017) while other subfields were spared. It also shown volume loses of Entorhinal Cortex (ERC) of both side in one year follow-up for the whole sample (mean volume reduction: right 19.25mm3, left 22.04 mm3). But no association has been found between PTSD and ERC volume alteration. The findings indicate for the first time in humans that selective volume loss of the CA3/dentate gyrus subfields is the results but not the risk factor of PTSD. It also suggested that ERC may also be a stress sensitive region.

The Palaeoproterozoic Birimian Supergroup of the West African Craton (WAC) consists of volcanic belts composed predominantly of basaltic and andesitic rocks and intervening sedimentary basins composed predominantly of wackes and argillites. Mafic metavolcanic rocks and granitoid-hosted enclaves from the Palaeoproterozoic Lawra Belt of Ghana were analysed for geochemical and Sr–Nd isotopic data to constrain the geological evolution of the southeastern part of the WAC. The metavolcanic rocks display mainly tholeiitic signatures, whereas the enclaves show calc-alkaline signatures. The high SiO2 contents (48.6–68.9 wt%) of the enclaves are suggestive of their evolved character. The high Th/Yb values of the samples relative to that of the mantle array may indicate derivation of their respective magmas from subduction-modified source(s). The rocks show positive εNd values of +0.79 to +2.86 (metavolcanic rocks) and +0.79 to +1.82 (enclaves). These signatures and their Nd model ages (TDM2) of 2.31–2.47 Ga (metavolcanic rocks) and 2.39–2.47 Ga (enclaves) suggest they were probably derived from juvenile mantle-derived protoliths, with possible input of subducted pre-Birimian (Archean?) rocks in their source(s). Their positive Ba–Th and negative Nb–Ta, Zr–Hf and Ti anomalies may indicate their formation through subduction-related magmatism consistent with an arc setting. We propose that the metavolcanic rocks and enclaves from the Lawra Belt formed in a similar island-arc setting. We infer that the granitoids developed through variable degrees of mixing/mingling between basic magma and granitic melt during subduction, when blobs of basic to intermediate parental magma became trapped in the granitic magma to form the enclaves.

Thermosonic wire bonding is a common fabrication process for connecting devices in electronic packaging. However, when the free air ball (FAB) is compressed onto the I/O pad of the chip during bonding procedure, chip cracking may occur if the contact pressure is too large. This study proposes an effective simulation technique that can predict the wire ball geometry after bonding in an accurate range. The contact force obtained in the simulation can be used for possible die cracking behavior evaluation. The simulation in this study used the explicit time integration scheme to deal with the time marching problem, and the second-order precision arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) algorithm was used to deal with the large deformation of the wire ball during the bonding process. In addition, the equilibrium smoothing algorithm in LS-DYNA can make the contact behavior and geometry of the bonding wire almost the same as the experiment, which can also significantly reduce the distortion of the mesh geometry after remeshing.

Planetary material in the atmospheres of white dwarfs is thought to be scattered inwards from outer planetary systems. Dusty emission in the infrared traces the accretion. As the scattering of many small asteroids is a stochastic process, variability in the infrared emission is predicted. We report a 3 year near-infrared (J, H and K) monitoring campaign of 34 dusty, polluted white dwarfs which aims to search for dust emission variability. We find all white dwarfs have consistent near-infrared fluxes, implying the excess emission is stable. This suggests tidal disruption events which lead to large variabilities are rare and quick (<1 year) and become stable within a few years. For WD 0408–041, the system that shows both increases and decreases in dust emission over 11 years, our K band data suggest a potential colour change associated with the dust emission that needs further confirmation.

Glyphodes pyloalis Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralididae) is a common pest in sericulture and has developed resistance to different insecticides. However, the mechanisms involved in insecticide resistance of G. pyloalis are poorly understood. Here, we present the first whole-transcriptome analysis of differential expression genes in insecticide-resistant and susceptible G. pyloalis. Clustering and enrichment analysis of DEGs revealed several biological pathways and enriched Gene Ontology terms were related to detoxification or insecticide resistance. Genes involved in insecticide metabolic processes, including cytochrome P450, glutathione S-transferases and carboxylesterase, were identified in the larval midgut of G. pyloalis. Among them, CYP324A19, CYP304F17, CYP6AW1, CYP6AB10, GSTs5, and AChE-like were significantly increased after propoxur treatment, while CYP324A19, CCE001c, and AChE-like were significantly induced by phoxim, suggesting that these genes were involved in insecticide metabolism. Furthermore, the sequence variation analysis identified 21 single nucleotide polymorphisms within CYP9A20, CYP6AB47, and CYP6AW1. Our findings reveal many candidate genes related to insecticide resistance of G. pyloalis. These results provide novel insights into insecticide resistance and facilitate the development of insecticides with greater specificity to G. pyloalis.

This paper aims to build the finite element model of the composite sinusoidal specimens and to carry out the parametric analysis. In this paper, the damage behaviour and the energy-absorbing results of composite sinusoidal specimens have been studied by quasi-static crushing experiments. The failure mechanisms of specimens under quasi-static crushing is further analysed. A numerical simulation has been performed by using the finite element model code LS-DYNA. The numerical results, in terms of load -displacement data, have been compared against experimental data, and good agreement has been found. Moreover, a sensitivity study has been carried out by varying material properties in order to assess their influence on the numerical results, and the material parameter selection scheme is optimised based on the constructed corresponding response surfaces. The results show that the response surface model has passed the test of goodness of fit, and the optimisation method can effectively assist the finite element modelling, and greatly decrease the numbers of trial and error.

Litter size has a great impact on the profit of swine producers. Uterine development is an important determinant of reproduction efficiency and could hence affect litter size. Chinese Erhualian pig is one of the most prolific breeds in the world, even though large phenotypic variation in litter size was observed within Erhualian sows. To dissect the genetic basis of the phenotypic variation, we herein conducted genome-wide association studies for total number born and number born alive (NBA) of Erhualian sows. In total, one significant single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) (P<1.78e−06) and 11 suggestive SNPs (P<3.57e−05) were identified on 10 chromosomes, confirming seven previously reported quantitative trait loci (QTL) and uncovering six QTL for litter size or uterus length. One locus on Sus scrofa chromosome (SSC) 13 (79.28 to 90.43 Mb) harbored a cluster of suggestive SNPs associated with multiparous NBA. The SNP (rs81447100) within this region was confirmed to be significantly (P<0.05) associated with litter size in Erhualian (n=313), Sutai (n=173) and Yorkshire (n=488) populations. Retinol binding protein 2 and retinol binding protein 1 functionally related to the development of uterus were located in a region of 2 Mb around rs81447100. Moreover, four genes related to embryo implantation and development were also detected around other significant SNPs. Taken together, our findings provide a potential marker (rs81447100) for the genetic improvement of litter size not only in Chinese Erhualian pigs but also in European commercial pig breeds like Yorkshire, and would facilitate the final identification of causative variant(s) underlying the effect of SSC13 QTL on litter size.

Previous studies showed that butyrate played benefit roles in the health and metabolism of animals. However, little information on the effects of butyrate on the metabolism of piglets at the extraintestinal level is available. The present study investigated transcriptomic and metabolomic responses in the livers of pigs to evaluate the effects of intravenous sodium butyrate (SB) on the body’s metabolism at the extraintestinal level. A total of 12 Duroc×Landrace×Large White growing barrows (60 days of age) fitted with jugular vein cannula were randomly allocated to either the SB group or the control (CO) group. Pigs in the SB group were intravenously infused with 10 ml SB (200 mmol/l) for 7 days, whereas pigs in the CO group were treated with the same amount of saline. The livers of pigs were collected for gene expression and metabolome analyses. The RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) analysis showed that the mRNA expression of Acyl-CoA synthetase long-chain family member 1 (ACSL1), carnitine palmitoyltransferase 1A (CPT1A), acetyl-CoA acyltransferase 2 (ACAA2) and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase 1 (PCK1) were downregulated (Q<0.05), whereas fatty acid binding protein 1 (FABP1) and cytochrome P450 family 7 subfamily A member 1 (CYP7A1) were upregulated (P<0.05) by SB treatment, indicating a decrease in fatty acid oxidation and gluconeogenesis and an increase in fatty acid transportation and cholesterol metabolism. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis showed that raffinose was enriched in the SB group compared with the CO group, indicating a decrease in metabolism of galactose. Moreover, SB treatment significantly decreased the concentration of blood cholesterol. The results suggest that a short-term intravenous infusion of SB could modulate hepatic lipid metabolism by decreasing fatty acid oxidation and increasing fatty acid transportation and cholesterol metabolism.

Monolithic large-aperture diffraction grating tiling is desired to increase the output capability of multi-kilojoule petawatt laser facilities. However, the wavefront errors of input pulse and gratings will degrade the focal spot quality and the compressibility of the output pulse. In this work, the effects of wavefront error of input pulse, deformation and wave aberration of the grating for the large-aperture tiled-grating compressor are investigated theoretically. A series of numerical simulations are presented to discuss the changing trends of focal spot energy caused by wavefront error of input pulse and obtain the error tolerance for specific goals. The influences of coating stress and the wave aberration of holographic exposure gratings on the diffraction wavefront are also discussed. Some advice is proposed for improving the performance of large-aperture tiled-grating. This work paves the way for the design of practical large-aperture tiled-grating compressor for ultrahigh intensity laser facilities in the future.

Mycobacterial diseases are prevalent in cancer and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients, especially those receiving tumor necrosis factor-α inhibitor (TNFi). However, the impact of cancer development on the risk of mycobacterial diseases among RA patients is unknown. Data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database were used to conduct a retrospective study to assess the occurrence of mycobacterial diseases in RA patients developing cancer (cancer-positive), those using TNFi (TNFi-exposure), those with cancer and using TNFi (cancer-TNFi-comb), and those without cancer and not using TNFi (cancer-TNFi-free). Cancer and TNFi exposure were time-dependent, and independent risk factors of mycobacterial diseases were assessed by Cox regression. Among 1344 RA patients diagnosed during 2000–2013, 68 (5·1%) developed cancer before their end points. The incidence rates of mycobacterial diseases in the cancer-positive (n = 56), TNFi-exposure (n = 290), cancer-TNFi-comb (n = 12), and cancer-TNFi-free (n = 986) subgroups were 6·7, 2·0, 7·6, and 1·3 per 1000 person-years, respectively. As compared with the cancer-TNFi-free group, the risk for mycobacterial diseases increased for the TNFi-exposure group (adjusted HR = 3·6, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1·1–11·5, P = 0·032) and remained high for cancer-positive (adjusted HR = 14·6, 95% CI 3·3–63·7, P < 0·001) after adjustment. This study suggested that cancer development increased the risk of mycobacterial diseases in RA patients, and risk assessment for this subgroup should be considered.