The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

In this paper, a pulsed spark discharge plasma actuator array is deployed to control laminar–turbulent transition in a Mach 3.0 flat-plate boundary layer, and the subtle flow structures are visualized by nanoparticle planar laser scattering (NPLS) technique. Results show that the onset location of turbulence can be brought upstream by plasma actuation, corresponding to forced boundary-layer transition. Hairpin vortex packets evolved from the thermal bulbs play a vital role in the breakdown of laminar flow. With the help of a machine learning tool, all the relevant structures induced by plasma actuation are extracted from NPLS images, and a conceptual model of the hairpin vortex generation is proposed, including three stages: production and lift-up of the high-vorticity region, formation of the $\varLambda$ vortex and evolution of the hairpin vortex.

In this era of spatially resolved observations of planet-forming disks with Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) and large ground-based telescopes such as the Very Large Telescope (VLT), Keck, and Subaru, we still lack statistically relevant information on the quantity and composition of the material that is building the planets, such as the total disk gas mass, the ice content of dust, and the state of water in planetesimals. SPace Infrared telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics (SPICA) is an infrared space mission concept developed jointly by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and European Space Agency (ESA) to address these questions. The key unique capabilities of SPICA that enable this research are (1) the wide spectral coverage $10{-}220\,\mu\mathrm{m}$ , (2) the high line detection sensitivity of $(1{-}2) \times 10^{-19}\,\mathrm{W\,m}^{-2}$ with $R \sim 2\,000{-}5\,000$ in the far-IR (SAFARI), and $10^{-20}\,\mathrm{W\,m}^{-2}$ with $R \sim 29\,000$ in the mid-IR (SPICA Mid-infrared Instrument (SMI), spectrally resolving line profiles), (3) the high far-IR continuum sensitivity of 0.45 mJy (SAFARI), and (4) the observing efficiency for point source surveys. This paper details how mid- to far-IR infrared spectra will be unique in measuring the gas masses and water/ice content of disks and how these quantities evolve during the planet-forming period. These observations will clarify the crucial transition when disks exhaust their primordial gas and further planet formation requires secondary gas produced from planetesimals. The high spectral resolution mid-IR is also unique for determining the location of the snowline dividing the rocky and icy mass reservoirs within the disk and how the divide evolves during the build-up of planetary systems. Infrared spectroscopy (mid- to far-IR) of key solid-state bands is crucial for assessing whether extensive radial mixing, which is part of our Solar System history, is a general process occurring in most planetary systems and whether extrasolar planetesimals are similar to our Solar System comets/asteroids. We demonstrate that the SPICA mission concept would allow us to achieve the above ambitious science goals through large surveys of several hundred disks within $\sim\!2.5$ months of observing time.

Background: Anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor encephalitis (NMDArE) is commonly associated with ovarian teratomas, surgical resection of which can lead to significant neurologic improvement. However, the necessity of aggressive resection at the time of diagnosis is unknown; specifically, whether unilateral or bilateral oophorectomy, versus lesionectomy and partial oophorectomy (ovariotomy), is required. Methods: Eleven patients with NMDArE who underwent ovarian resection between January 1st 2012 and December 31st 2020 were retrospectively identified. Primary outcome was good one-year functional status, defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 0-1. Results: Median age at encephalitis onset was 24 years (19–38); median delay from symptom onset to surgery was 39 days (16–129). Six patients (54.5%) had good mRS scores, unrelated to surgical resection type. Conclusions: Added clinical benefit of aggressive ovarian resection techniques at one-year follow-up was not identified in our data. Further longitudinal studies are needed to determine the indications for different surgical techniques in patients with NMDArE.

Ovarian resection approaches and associated functional outcomes in patients with NMDArE

A deep convolutional neural network has been developed to denoise atomic-resolution transmission electron microscope image datasets of nanoparticles acquired using direct electron counting detectors, for applications where the image signal is severely limited by shot noise. The network was applied to a model system of CeO2-supported Pt nanoparticles. We leverage multislice image simulations to generate a large and flexible dataset for training the network. The proposed network outperforms state-of-the-art denoising methods on both simulated and experimental test data. Factors contributing to the performance are identified, including (a) the geometry of the images used during training and (b) the size of the network's receptive field. Through a gradient-based analysis, we investigate the mechanisms learned by the network to denoise experimental images. This shows that the network exploits both extended and local information in the noisy measurements, for example, by adapting its filtering approach when it encounters atomic-level defects at the nanoparticle surface. Extensive analysis has been done to characterize the network's ability to correctly predict the exact atomic structure at the nanoparticle surface. Finally, we develop an approach based on the log-likelihood ratio test that provides a quantitative measure of the agreement between the noisy observation and the atomic-level structure in the network-denoised image.

For advanced operational aircraft, the two-dimensional (2-D) thrust-vectoring (TV) nozzle effectively improves the flight mobility and post-stall manoevrability. However, its flow capacity decreases when deflecting and cooling air is injected, which impacts the engine’s operating state, including decreasing the fan surge margin and increasing the turbine inlet temperature. Therefore, in order to improve engine performance in the whole flight envelope, this paper studies the matching mechanism of the engine and the cooled 2-D TV nozzle, performance characterisation and control schedule of the nozzle, and an integrated aeroengine/nozzle modeling method is put forward. Based on these, an engine performance simulation model is modified to include a cooled 2-D TV nozzle. The testing results show that applying the nozzle control schedules recommended in this paper avoids the performance degradation when the nozzle deflects. This work advances the field of engine/nozzle integrated modeling, and helps to instruct the simulation and experimentation to better fit the needs of engine modeling and engineering applications.

We study the evolution of unidirectional water waves from a randomly forced input condition with uncorrelated Fourier components. We examine the kurtosis of the linearised free surface as a convenient proxy for the probability of a rogue wave. We repeat the laboratory experiments of Onorato et al. (Phys. Rev. E, vol. 70, 2004, 067302), both experimentally and numerically, and extend the parameter space in our numerical simulations. We consider numerical simulations based on the modified nonlinear Schrödinger equation and the fully nonlinear water wave equations, which are in good agreement. For low steepness, existing analytical models based on the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLS) are found to be accurate. For cases which are steep or have very narrow bandwidths, these analytical models over-predict the rate at which excess kurtosis develops. In these steep cases, the kurtosis in both our experiments and numerical simulations peaks before returning to an equilibrium level. Such transient maxima are not predicted by NLS-based analytical models. Above a certain threshold of steepness, the steady-state value of kurtosis is primarily dependent on the spectral bandwidth. We also examine how the average shape of extreme events is modified by nonlinearity over the evolution distance, showing significant asymmetry during the initial evolution, which is greatly reduced once the spectrum has reached equilibrium. The locations of the maxima in asymmetry coincide approximately with the locations of the maxima in kurtosis.

The Straw-headed Bulbul Pycnonotus zeylanicus is one of South-East Asia’s most threatened songbirds due to relentless demand for the regional cage-bird trade. The species was recently uplisted from ‘Endangered’ to ‘Critically Endangered’ only two years after its previous uplisting. Intriguingly, populations in highly urbanised Singapore appear relatively secure. However, the last Singaporean density estimates, derived from traditional census methods, were obtained nearly two decades ago in 2001. A recent population estimate in 2016 was derived from the census work in 2001 coupled with relative abundance indices from population trends. We thus performed systematic field surveys using the distance sampling method, estimating 573 ± 185 individuals nation-wide, with a break-down of 217 ± 81 on the main island of Singapore and 356 ± 104 birds on the satellite of Pulau Ubin. Taken together, the total population estimate reported here comprises 22.9–57.3% of the global wild population, underscoring the importance of Singapore as a stronghold for the species. In spite of its apparently secure status in Singapore, the species remains susceptible to local and foreign trapping pressures. Based on our assessment, we propose a number of local and regional conservation measures to ensure the continued survival of populations in Singapore.

Stratospheric airships are promising aircraft, usually designed as a non-rigid airship. As an essential part of the non-rigid airship, the envelope plays a significant role in maintaining its shape and bearing the external force load. Generally, the envelope material of a flexible airship consists of plain-weave fabric, composed of warp and weft fibre yarn. At present, biaxial tensile experiments are the primary method used to study the stress–strain characteristics of such flexible airship materials. In this work, biaxial tensile testing of UN-5100 material was carried out. The strain on the material under unusual stress and the stress ratio were obtained using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) technology. Also, the stress–strain curve was corrected by polynomial fitting. The slope of the stress–strain curve at different points, the Membrane Structures Association of Japan (MSAJ) standard and the Radial Basis Function (RBF) model were compared to identify the stress–strain characteristics of the materials. Some conclusions on the mechanical properties of the flexible airship material can be drawn and will play a significant role in the design of such envelopes.

A disruption database characterizing the current quench of disruptions with ITER-like tungsten divertor has been developed on EAST. It provides a large number of plasma parameters describing the predisruptive plasma, current quench time, eddy current, and mitigation by massive impurity injection, which shows that the current quench time strongly depends on magnetic energy and post-disruption electron temperature. Further, the energy balance and magnetic energy dissipation during the current quench phase has been well analysed. Magnetic energy is also demonstrated to be dissipated mainly by ohmic reheating and inductive coupling, and both of the two channels have great effects on current quench time. Also, massive gas injection is an efficient method to speed up the current quench and increase the fraction of impurity radiation.

In conventional linear parameter-varying (LPV) modelling and gain scheduling control design for turbojet engines, the linearisation is performed at a set of equilibrium points, and the validity of such LPV models is ensured near the equilibria. However, the linear model can only provide an approximate description of the engine’s state when the system operates away from equilibrium. In this paper, it is suggested that such linearisation should be carried out not only at equilibrium states but also in transient (off-equilibrium) operating regimes. This will result in a global approximation to the system states whether equilibrium or off-equilibrium. Theoretically, the transient control performance can be improved by introducing such an off-equilibrium linearisation-based control procedure. Subsequently, a gain scheduling control procedure based on off-equilibrium linearisation models is proposed by using sum-of-squares (SOS) programming, which, compared with many convex programming methods, can provide less conservative results. The resulting off-equilibrium linearisation-based nonlinear control procedure with SOS programming can capture a wide range of transient engine dynamics with better accuracy, and further achieve better control performance.

We present the elements required to construct two devices used in an undergraduate plasma physics laboratory. The materials and construction costs of the sources, the vacuum systems and probe drives and electrical circuits are presented in detail in the text and the first appendix. We also provide the software for probe motion and data acquisition as well as the electrical schematics for key components. Experiments which have been performed are listed and two (resonance cones and whistler waves) are described in greater detail. The machines are flexible and original research is possible.

Reducing dietary CP content is an effective approach to reduce animal nitrogen excretion and save protein feed resources. However, it is not clear how reducing dietary CP content affects the nutrient digestion and absorption in the gut of ruminants, therefore it is difficult to accurately determine how much reduction in dietary CP content is appropriate. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of reduced dietary CP content on N balance, intestinal nutrient digestion and absorption, and rumen microbiota in growing goats. To determine N balance, 18 growing wether goats (25.0 ± 0.5 kg) were randomly assigned to one of three diets: 13.0% (control), 11.5% and 10.0% CP. Another 18 growing wether goats (25.0 ± 0.5 kg) were surgically fitted with ruminal, proximate duodenal, and terminal ileal fistulae and were randomly assigned to one of the three diets to investigate intestinal amino acid (AA) absorption and rumen microbiota. The results showed that fecal and urinary N excretion of goats fed diets containing 11.5% and 10.0% CP were lower than those of goats fed the control diet (P < 0.05). When compared with goats fed the control diet, N retention was decreased and apparent N digestibility in the entire gastrointestinal tract was increased in goats fed the 10% CP diet (P < 0.05). When compared with goats fed the control diet, the duodenal flow of lysine, tryptophan and phenylalanine was decreased in goats fed the 11.5% CP diet (P < 0.05) and that of lysine, methionine, tryptophan, phenylalanine, leucine, glutamic acid, tyrosine, essential AAs (EAAs) and total AAs (TAAs) was decreased in goats fed the 10.0% CP diet (P < 0.05). When compared with goats fed the control diet, the apparent absorption of TAAs in the small intestine was increased in goats fed the 11.5% CP diet (P < 0.05) and that of isoleucine, serine, cysteine, EAAs, non-essential AAs, and TAAs in the small intestine was increased in goats fed the 10.0% CP diet (P < 0.05). When compared with goats fed the control diet, the relative richness of Bacteroidetes and Fibrobacteres was increased and that of Proteobacteria and Synergistetes was decreased in the rumen of goats fed a diet with 10.0% CP. In conclusion, reducing dietary CP content reduced N excretion and increased nutrient utilization by improving rumen fermentation, enhancing nutrient digestion and absorption, and altering rumen microbiota in growing goats.

At present, analysis of diet and bladder cancer (BC) is mostly based on the intake of individual foods. The examination of food combinations provides a scope to deal with the complexity and unpredictability of the diet and aims to overcome the limitations of the study of nutrients and foods in isolation. This article aims to demonstrate the usability of supervised data mining methods to extract the food groups related to BC. In order to derive key food groups associated with BC risk, we applied the data mining technique C5.0 with 10-fold cross-validation in the BLadder cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants study, including data from eighteen case–control and one nested case–cohort study, compromising 8320 BC cases out of 31 551 participants. Dietary data, on the eleven main food groups of the Eurocode 2 Core classification codebook, and relevant non-diet data (i.e. sex, age and smoking status) were available. Primarily, five key food groups were extracted; in order of importance, beverages (non-milk); grains and grain products; vegetables and vegetable products; fats, oils and their products; meats and meat products were associated with BC risk. Since these food groups are corresponded with previously proposed BC-related dietary factors, data mining seems to be a promising technique in the field of nutritional epidemiology and deserves further examination.