The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

We live in an age of datafication wherein nearly all aspects of our lives can be transformed into data and evaluated. The authors seek to make sense of the heightened datafication-enabled social control under China’s Social Credit System (SCS) by developing the concept of the data state. A “data state” is defined as a governance model enabling the state to comprehensively monitor, evaluate, and control its subjects through datafication, leaving them little room to defend their autonomy. We identify the multiple functions of the SCS in its development up to 2020 and analyze its inherent defects, including the decontextualized evaluation of individuals and the semi-automated imposition of disproportionate punishment. We argue that, if the SCS were to fully integrate its functions and connect to other data-driven governance initiatives, it would eventually allow the data self, carefully groomed by the state, to dominate the bio-self and turn China into a data state. Whereas China’s SCS may be unique and not easily replicated elsewhere, understanding its intricacies helps to enable the citizens of democratic societies to guard against the relentless growth of datafication that may result in an invincible and irreversible ecosystem for the emergence of a data state.

Background: In Canada, it’s unknown if the prevalence of stroke survivorship differs in the population with active cancer compared to those without cancer. Methods: We analyzed the 2015-2016 iteration of the Canadian Community Health Survey. The prevalence of stroke survivorship was compared across risk factors using descriptive statistics. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess the association between cancer and prevalence of stroke survivorship. Covariates were assessed for effect modification and confounding using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Results: We analyzed 89,285 subjects. The prevalence of cancer and the prevalence of suffering from the effects of a stroke were 2.09% and 1.56%, respectively. Cancer was significantly associated with an increased prevalence of stroke survivorship with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.56 (95%CI: 1.24 – 1.98) after adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, education, household income, dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes. The association was stronger in younger age groups: the youngest age group (18 – 49 years) had the highest OR (6.49, 95%CI:2.01 – 20.94) for suffering from the effects of a stroke in association with the presence of cancer. Conclusions: In Canada, the presence of active cancer increases the odds of suffering from the effects of a stroke, particularly in the youngest age group.

Background: This is a population-based retrospective study of neurological and cardiac complications of COVID-19 among Ontario visible minorities: Chinese and South Asian Canadians Methods: From January 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020, using the last name algorithm, rates and types of cardiac and neurological complication of these two cohorts along with the general population in Ontario with COVID-19 were analysed by Institue of Clinical Evaluative Sciences. Results: Preliminary results show that Chinese-Canadians (N= 1,186) with COVID-19 are older with a mean age of 50.74 years old compared to general population (N= 42,547) of 47.57 years old (P< .001), while South Asians (N= 3,459) have a younger mean age of 42.08 years old (P< .001). Total cardiac and neurological complication rates, hospitalization rates and ICU admission rates are all higher for Chinese-Canadians while they are lower in South Asians and all achieving statistical significance (P < .001). Overall mortality rate is significantly higher for Chinese-Canadians at 8.1% vs 5.0% general population (P < .001). Conclusions: Chinese-Canadians with COVID-19 in Ontario were much older and have higher cardiac and neurological complication rates and overall mortality rate than the general population. These data have significant implications for proper prevention and appropriate management for these vulnerble elderly Chinese-Canadians.

Do discriminatory US immigration policies affect foreign public opinion about Americans? When examining negative reactions to US actions perceived as bullying on the world stage, existing research has focused either on US policies that involve direct foreign military intervention or seek to influence foreign countries’ domestic economic policy or policies advocating minority representation. We argue that US immigration policies – especially when they are perceived as discriminatory – can similarly generate anti-American sentiment. We use a conjoint experiment embedded in a unique survey of Nigerian expatriates in Ghana. Comparing respondents before and after President Trump surpisingly announced a ban on Nigerian immigration to the United States, we find a large drop (13 percentage points) in Nigerian’s favorability towards Americans.

Particle–wall interactions have broad biological and technological applications. In particular, some artificial microswimmers capitalize on their translation–rotation coupling near a wall to generate directed propulsion. Emerging biomedical applications of these microswimmers in complex biological fluids prompt questions on the impact of non-Newtonian rheology on their propulsion. In this work, we report some intriguing effects of shear-thinning rheology, a ubiquitous non-Newtonian behaviour of biological fluids, on the translation–rotation coupling of a particle near a wall. One particularly interesting feature revealed here is that the wall-induced translation by rotation can occur in a direction opposite to what might be intuitively expected for an object rolling on a solid substrate. We elucidate the underlying physical mechanism and discuss its implications on the design of micromachines and bacterial motion near walls in complex fluids.

Pneumatic launch systems for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), including mechanical and pneumatic systems, are complex and non-linear. They are subjected to system parameters during launch, which leads to difficulty in engineering research analysis. For example, the mismatch between the UAV parameters and the parameter design indices of the launch system as well as the unclear design indices of the launching speed and overload of UAVs have a great impact on launch safety. Considering this situation, some studies are presented in this paper. Taking the pneumatic launch system as a research object, a pneumatic launcher dynamic simulation model is built based on co-simulation considering the coupling characteristics of the mechanical structure and transmission system. Its accuracy was verified by laboratory test results. Based on this model, the paper shows the effects of the key parameters, including the mass of the UAV, cylinder volume, pressure and moment of inertia of the pulley block, on the performance of the dynamic characteristics of the launch process. Then, a method for matching the parameter characteristics between the UAV and launch system based on batch simulation is proposed. The set of matching parameter values of the UAV and launch system that satisfy the launch take-off safety criteria are calculated. Finally, the influence of the system parameters of the launch process on the launch performance was analysed in detail, and the design optimised. Meaningful conclusions were obtained. The analysis method and its results can provide a reference for engineering and theoretical research and development of pneumatic launch systems.

Considering the shortcomings of current methods for real-time resolution of two-aircraft flight conflicts, a geometric optimal conflict resolution and recovery method based on the velocity obstacle method for two aircraft and a cooperative conflict resolution method for multiple aircraft are proposed. The conflict type was determined according to the relative position and velocity of the aircraft, and a corresponding conflict mitigation strategy was selected. A resolution manoeuvre and a recovery manoeuvre were performed. On the basis of a two-aircraft conflict resolution model, a multi-aircraft cooperative conflict resolution game was constructed to identify an optimal solution for maximising group welfare. The solution and recovery method is simple and effective, and no new flight conflicts are introduced during track recovery. For multi-aircraft conflict resolution, an equilibrium point that maximises the welfare function of the group was identified, and thus, an optimal strategy for multi-aircraft conflict resolution was obtained.

We experimentally study how the turbulent energy dissipation rate scales in the cross-stream direction of turbulent wake flows generated by two side-by-side square prisms. We consider three different such turbulent flows with gap ratios $G/H=1.25$, $2.4$ and $3.5$, where $G$ is the distance between the prisms and $H$ is the prism width. These three flows have a very different dynamics, inhomogeneities and large-scale features. The measurements were taken with a multi-camera particle image velocimetry system at several streamwise locations between $2.5H$ and $20H$ downstream of the prisms. After removing the large-scale most energetic coherent structures, the normalised turbulence dissipation coefficient $C'_{\epsilon }$ of the remaining incoherent turbulence is found to scale as $C'_{\epsilon } \sim (\sqrt {Re_{L}}/Re'_{\lambda })^{3/2}$ along the highly inhomogeneous cross-stream direction for all streamwise locations tested in all three flows and for all three inlet Reynolds numbers considered; $Re'_{\lambda }$ and $Re_{L}$ are, respectively, a Taylor length-based and an integral length-based Reynolds number of the remaining incoherent turbulence.

Stratospheric airships are lighter-than-air vehicles that work at an altitude of 20km in the lower calm portion of the stratosphere. They can be used as real-time surveillance platforms for environment monitoring and civil communication. Solar energy is the ideal power choice for long-endurance stratospheric airships. Attitude control is important for airships so that they can point at a target for observation or adjust the attitude to improve the output performance of solar panels. Stratospheric airships have a large volume and semi-flexible structure. The typical actuators used are aerodynamic surfaces, vectored thrust and ballonets. However, not all these actuators can work well under special working conditions, such as low density and low speed. In this study, moving-mass control is introduced to stratospheric airships because its control efficiency is independent of airspeed and atmospheric density. A nonlinear feedback controller based on generalised inverse with a nonlinear mapping module is designed to implement moving-mass control. Such a new station keeping scheme with moving masses is proposed for airships with different working situations.

We performed secondary analyses of a postdischarge decolonization trial of MRSA carriers that reduced MRSA infection and hospitalization by 30%. Hospitalized MRSA infection was associated with 7.9 days of non-MRSA antibiotics and CDI in 3.9%. Preventing MRSA infection and associated hospitalization may reduce antibiotic use and CDI incidence.

To investigate the influences of dietary riboflavin (RF) addition on nutrient digestion and rumen fermentation, eight rumen cannulated Holstein bulls were randomly allocated into four treatments in a repeated 4 × 4 Latin square design. Daily addition level of RF for each bull in control, low RF, medium RF and high RF was 0, 300, 600 and 900 mg, respectively. Increasing the addition level of RF, DM intake was not affected, average daily gain tended to be increased linearly and feed conversion ratio decreased linearly. Total tract digestibilities of DM, organic matter, crude protein (CP) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) increased linearly. Rumen pH decreased quadratically, and total volatile fatty acids (VFA) increased quadratically. Acetate molar percentage and acetate:propionate ratio increased linearly, but propionate molar percentage and ammonia-N content decreased linearly. Rumen effective degradability of DM increased linearly, NDF increased quadratically but CP was unaltered. Activity of cellulase and populations of total bacteria, protozoa, fungi, dominant cellulolytic bacteria, Prevotella ruminicola and Ruminobacter amylophilus increased linearly. Linear increase was observed for urinary total purine derivatives excretion. The data suggested that dietary RF addition was essential for rumen microbial growth, and no further increase in performance and rumen total VFA concentration was observed when increasing RF level from 600 to 900 mg/d in dairy bulls.