The objective was to evaluate the association between serum carotenoid levels and respiratory morbidity and mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults. We assessed the association of serum carotenoid levels with respiratory morbidity and mortality using logistic regression and proportional hazards regression models. Meanwhile, a series of confounders were controlled in regression models and restricted cubic spline, which included age, sex, race, marriage, education, income, drinking, smoking, regular exercise, BMI, daily energy intake, vitamin E, vitamin C, fruit intake, vegetable intake, diabetes, hypertension, asthma, emphysema and chronic bronchitis. Compared with participants in the lowest tertiles, participants in the highest tertiles of serum total carotenoids, β-cryptoxanthin and lutein/zeaxanthin levels had a significantly lower prevalence of emphysema (ORtotal carotenoids = 0·61, 95% CI: 0·41–0·89, OR β-cryptoxanthin = 0·67, 95% CI: 0·49–0·92), chronic bronchitis (OR β-cryptoxanthin = 0·66, 95% CI: 0·50–0·87) and asthma (Q2: ORlutein/zeaxanthin = 0·78, 95% CI: 0·62–0·97); participants in the highest tertiles of total carotenoids, α-carotene, lutein/zeaxanthin and lycopene had a lower risk of respiratory mortality (hazard ratio (HR)total carotenoids = 0·62, 95% CI: 0·42–0·90, HR α-carotene = 0·54, 95% CI: 0·36–0·82, HRlutein/zeaxanthin = 0·48, 95% CI: 0·33–0·71, HRlycopene = 0·66, 95% CI: 0·45–0·96) than those in the lowest tertiles. Higher serum total carotenoids and β-cryptoxanthin levels is associated with decreased prevalence of emphysema and chronic bronchitis, and higher serum total carotenoids, α-carotene, lutein/zeaxanthin and lycopene levels had a lower mortality of respiratory disease.

Customer preference modelling has been widely used to aid engineering design decisions on the selection and configuration of design attributes. Recently, network analysis approaches, such as the exponential random graph model (ERGM), have been increasingly used in this field. While the ERGM-based approach has the new capability of modelling the effects of interactions and interdependencies (e.g., social relationships among customers) on customers’ decisions via network structures (e.g., using triangles to model peer influence), existing research can only model customers’ consideration decisions, and it cannot predict individual customer’s choices, as what the traditional utility-based discrete choice models (DCMs) do. However, the ability to make choice predictions is essential to predicting market demand, which forms the basis of decision-based design (DBD). This paper fills this gap by developing a novel ERGM-based approach for choice prediction. This is the first time that a network-based model can explicitly compute the probability of an alternative being chosen from a choice set. Using a large-scale customer-revealed choice database, this research studies the customer preferences estimated from the ERGM-based choice models with and without network structures and evaluates their predictive performance of market demand, benchmarking the multinomial logit (MNL) model, a traditional DCM. The results show that the proposed ERGM-based choice modelling achieves higher accuracy in predicting both individual choice behaviours and market share ranking than the MNL model, which is mathematically equivalent to ERGM when no network structures are included. The insights obtained from this study further extend the DBD framework by allowing explicit modelling of interactions among entities (i.e., customers and products) using network representations.

We developed a mechanism model which allows for simulating the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission dynamics with the combined effects of human adaptive behaviours and vaccination, aiming at predicting the end time of COVID-19 infection in global scale. Based on the surveillance information (reported cases and vaccination data) between 22 January 2020 and 18 July 2022, we validated the model by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting method. We found that (1) if without adaptive behaviours, the epidemic could sweep the world in 2022 and 2023, causing 3.098 billion of human infections, which is 5.39 times of current number; (2) 645 million people could be avoided from infection due to vaccination; and (3) in current scenarios of protective behaviours and vaccination, infection cases would increase slowly, levelling off around 2023, and it would end completely in June 2025, causing 1.024 billion infections, with 12.5 million death. Our findings suggest that vaccination and the collective protection behaviour remain the key determinants against the global process of COVID-19 transmission.

The phenomenon that prior gains may increase people’s willingness to accept risky gambles is named as the house money effect (Thaler and Johnson, 1990). Many studies have shown that the “house money effect” is a robust phenomenon but few scholars explain the mechanism of it well. We suppose the reason for the house money effect is that the ante (starting amount) is from the prior gambling profits, and its potential loss has relatively low psychological value. To test this hypothesis, we designed a series of studies using two-stage gambles. A total of 915 university students participated. In Study 1, in addition to a standard condition (which replicated the basic effect), we test how people respond to “prospect theory, with memory” frame, a “concreteness” frame and “quasi-hedonic” editing. None of these types of frames result in a significant house money effect. In Study 2, we certify the reference point shift to 100 Yuan in the second-stage gamble, thus the house money effect can be regarded as the absence of loss aversion; Study 3, consisting of 3 sub-experiments, indicated that gambling profits and normal income will open different mental accounts which are spent quite differently. The pain of losing 100 Yuan allowance is more serious than that of losing 100 Yuan gambling wins. People will typically reject the gamble of 50/50 chance to gain or lose 100 Yuan if the ante is from the “normal income account”, but accept if the ante is from the “windfall account”. The results of the series of experiments prove the accuracy of our hypothesis mostly.

In this study, we investigate the differences between two transient, three-dimensional, thermomechanically coupled ice-sheet models, namely, a first-order approximation model (FOM) and a ‘full’ Stokes ice-sheet model (FSM) under the same numerical framework. For all numerical experiments, we take the FSM outputs as the reference values and calculate the mean relative errors in the velocity and temperature fields for the FOM over 100 years. Four different boundary conditions (ice slope, geothermal heat flux, basal topography and basal sliding) are tested, and by changing these parameters, we verify the thermomechanical behavior of the FOM and discover that the velocity and temperature biases of the FOM generally increase with increases in the ice slope, geothermal heat flux, undulation amplitude of the ice base, and with the existence of basal sliding. In addition, the model difference between the FOM and FSM may accumulate over time, and the spatial distribution patterns of the relative velocity and temperature errors are in good agreement.

The role of dietary factors in osteoporotic fractures (OFs) in women is not fully elucidated. We investigated the associations between incidence of OF and dietary calcium, magnesium and soy isoflavone intake in a longitudinal study of 48 584 postmenopausal women. Multivariable Cox regression was applied to derive hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) to evaluate associations between dietary intake, based on the averages of two assessments that took place with a median interval of 2⋅4 years, and fracture risk. The average age of study participants is 61⋅4 years (range 43⋅3–76⋅7 years) at study entry. During a median follow-up of 10⋅1 years, 4⋅3 % participants experienced OF. Compared with daily calcium intake ≤400 mg/d, higher calcium intake (>400 mg/d) was significantly associated with about a 40–50 % reduction of OF risk among women with a calcium/magnesium (Ca/Mg) intake ratio ≥1⋅7. Among women with prior fracture history, high soy isoflavone intake was associated with reduced OF risk; the HR was 0⋅72 (95 % CI 0⋅55, 0⋅93) for the highest (>42⋅0 mg/d) v. lowest (<18⋅7 mg/d) quartile intake. This inverse association was more evident among recently menopausal women (<10 years). No significant association between magnesium intake and OF risk was observed. Our findings provide novel information suggesting that the association of OF risk with dietary calcium intake was modified by Ca/Mg ratio, and soy isoflavone intake was modified by history of fractures and time since menopause. Our findings, if confirmed, can help to guide further dietary intervention strategies for OF prevention.

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a severe and life-threatening complication, characterised by multi-organ failure and high short-term mortality. However, there is limited information on the impact of various comorbidities on HBV-ACLF in a large population. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between comorbidities, complications and mortality. In this retrospective observational study, we identified 2166 cases of HBV-ACLF hospitalised from January 2010 to March 2018. Demographic data from the patients, medical history, treatment, laboratory indices, comorbidities and complications were collected. The mortality rate in our study group was 47.37%. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was the most common comorbidity, followed by alcoholic liver disease. Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, pneumonia and hepatic encephalopathy (HE) were common in these patients. Diabetes mellitus and hyperthyroidism are risk factors for death within 90 days, together with gastrointestinal bleeding and HE at admission, HE and hepatorenal syndrome during hospitalisation. Knowledge of risk factors can help identify HBV-ACLF patients with a poor prognosis for HBV-ACLF with comorbidities and complications.

Athetis lepigone Möschler (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) is a common maize pest in Europe and Asia. However, there is no long-term effective management strategy is available yet to suppress its population. Adults rely heavily on olfactory cues to locate their optimal host plants and oviposition sites. Pheromone-binding proteins (PBPs) are believed to be responsible for recognizing and transporting different odorant molecules to interact with receptor membrane proteins. In this study, the ligand-binding specificities of two AlepPBPs (AlepPBP2 and AlepPBP3) for sex pheromone components and host plant (maize) volatiles were measured by fluorescence ligand-binding assay. The results demonstrated that AlepPBP2 had a high affinity with two pheromones [(Z)-7-dodecenyl acetate, Ki = 1.11 ± 0.1 μM, (Z)-9-tetradecenyl acetate, Ki = 1.32 ± 0.15 μM] and ten plant volatiles, including (-)-limonene, α-pinene, myrcene, linalool, benzaldehyde, nonanal, 2-hexanone, 3-hexanone, 2-heptanone and 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-one. In contrast, we found that none of these chemicals could bind to AlepPBP3. Our results clearly show no significant differences in the functional characterization of the binding properties between AlepPBP2 and AlepPBP3 to sex pheromones and host plant volatiles. Furthermore, molecular docking was employed for further detail on some crucial amino acid residues involved in the ligand-binding of AlepPBP2. These findings will provide valuable information about the potential protein binding sites necessary for protein-ligand interactions which appear as attractive targets for the development of novel technologies and management strategies for insect pests.

Metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) might be an alternative valuable target in obesity treatment. We aimed to assess whether alternative Mediterranean (aMED) diet and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet were favourably associated with obesity and MHO phenotype in a Chinese multi-ethnic population. We conducted this cross-sectional analysis using the baseline data of the China Multi-Ethnic Cohort study that enrolled 99 556 participants from seven diverse ethnic groups. Participants with self-reported cardiometabolic diseases were excluded to eliminate possible reverse causality. Marginal structural logistic models were used to estimate the associations, with confounders determined by directed acyclic graph (DAG). Among 65 699 included participants, 11·2 % were with obesity. MHO phenotype was present in 5·7 % of total population and 52·7 % of population with obesity. Compared with the lowest quintile, the highest quintile of DASH diet score had 23 % decreased odds of obesity (OR = 0·77, 95 % CI 0·71, 0·83, P trend < 0·001) and 27 % increased odds of MHO (OR = 1·27, 95 % CI 1·10, 1·48, P trend = 0·001) in population with obesity. However, aMED diet showed no obvious favourable associations. Further adjusting for BMI did not change the associations between diet scores and MHO. Results were robust to various sensitivity analyses. In conclusion, DASH diet rather than aMED diet is associated with reduced risk of obesity and presents BMI-independent metabolic benefits in this large population-based study. Recommendation for adhering to DASH diet may benefit the prevention of obesity and related metabolic disorders in Chinese population.

The orogenic process and crustal growth of the Changning–Menglian Palaeo-Tethys orogenic belt in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau is not fully understood. Triassic Caojian rhyolites and granites occur extensively in this orogenic belt and represent important constraints for this issue. This study aims to examine the relationships between the Triassic Caojian rhyolites and granites and to gain a better understanding of their possible petrogenesis. The study used zircon U–Pb geochronology, trace element analyses and Sr–Nd–Hf isotope data to better understand the relationships and possible origin of the rhyolites and granites. Recent zircon U–Pb ages indicated that the Caojian rhyolites were emplaced at 227.2 Ma, whereas age estimates for Caojian granites were slightly older (233.4–236.9 Ma). The Caojian rhyolites are enriched in large-ion lithophile elements and high-field-strength elements, with elevated FeOtot/MgO and Ga/Al ratios. However, they are significantly depleted in Ba, Sr, Eu, P and Ti. These geochemical characteristics indicate that they have an A-type affinity. Furthermore, the Caojian granites comprise biotite monzogranites and granodiorites and show unfractionated composition. Mineralogically, the Caojian granites were found to contain diagnostic I-type minerals such as hornblende. Geochemical data suggest that the petrogenesis of the Triassic Caojian rhyolites is characterized by rejuvenation of crystal mush represented by the Triassic Caojian granites. The necessary thermal input was supplied by mafic magma. This magmatic evolution was likely related to lithospheric delamination and upwelling of the asthenosphere during the Mid- to Late Triassic, forming post-collisional I-type granites and A-type volcanics in the Changning–Menglian Palaeo-Tethys orogenic belt.

From 24 January 2020 to 18 May 2020, Chaoshan took measures to limit the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), such as restricting public gatherings, wearing masks and suspending classes. We explored the effects of these measures on the pathogen spectrum of paediatric respiratory tract infections in Chaoshan. Pharyngeal swab samples were collected from 4075 children hospitalised for respiratory tract infection before (May–December 2019) and after (January–August 2020) the COVID-19 outbreak. We used liquid chip technology to analyse 14 respiratory pathogens. The data were used to explore between-group differences, age-related differences and seasonal variations in respiratory pathogens. The number of cases in the outbreak group (1222) was 42.8% of that in the pre-outbreak group (2853). Virus-detection rates were similar in the outbreak (48.3%, 590/1222) and pre-outbreak groups (51.5%, 1468/2853; χ2 = 3.446, P = 0.065), while the bacteria-detection rate was significantly lower in the outbreak group (26.2%, 320/1222) than in the pre-outbreak group (44.1%, 1258/2853; χ2 = 115.621, P < 0.05). With increasing age, the proportions of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections decreased, while those of Mycoplasma pneumoniae and adenovirus infections increased. Streptococcus pneumoniae, CMV and rhinovirus infections peaked in autumn and winter, while RSV infections peaked in summer and winter. We found that the proportion of virus-only detection decreased with age, while the proportion of bacteria-only detection increased with age (Table 2). Anti-COVID-19 measures significantly reduced the number of paediatric hospitalisations for respiratory tract infections, significantly altered the pathogen spectrum of such infections and decreased the overall detection rates of 14 common respiratory pathogens. The proportion of bacterial, but not viral, infections decreased.

No relevant studies have yet been conducted to explore which measurement can best predict the survival time of patients with cancer cachexia. This study aimed to identify an anthropometric measurement that could predict the 1-year survival of patients with cancer cachexia. We conducted a nested case–control study using data from a multicentre clinical investigation of cancer from 2013 to 2020. Cachexia was defined using the Fearon criteria. A total of 262 patients who survived less than 1 year and 262 patients who survived more than 1 year were included in this study. Six candidate variables were selected based on clinical experience and previous studies. Five variables, BMI, mid-arm circumference, mid-arm muscle circumference, calf circumference and triceps skin fold (TSF), were selected for inclusion in the multivariable model. In the conditional logistic regression analysis, TSF (P = 0·014) was identified as a significant independent protective factor. A similar result was observed in all patients with cancer cachexia (n 3084). In addition, a significantly stronger positive association between TSF and the 1-year survival of patients with cancer cachexia was observed in participants aged > 65 years (OR: 0·94; 95 % CI 0·89, 0·99) than in those aged ≤ 65 years (OR: 0·96; 95 % CI 0·93, 0·99; Pinteraction = 0·013) and in participants with no chronic disease (OR: 0·92; 95 % CI 0·87, 0·97) than in those with chronic disease (OR: 0·97; 95 % CI 0·94, 1·00; Pinteraction = 0·049). According to this study, TSF might be a good anthropometric measurement for predicting 1-year survival in patients with cancer cachexia.

The present study evaluated effects of dietary supplementation with tryptophan (Trp) on muscle growth, protein synthesis and antioxidant capacity in hybrid catfish Pelteobagrus vachelli♀ × Leiocassis longirostris♂. Fish were fed six different diets containing 2·6 (control), 3·1, 3·7, 4·2, 4·7 and 5·6 g Trp/kg diet for 56 d, respectively. Results showed that dietary Trp significantly (1) improved muscle protein content, fibre density and frequency of fibre diameter; (2) up-regulated the mRNA levels of PCNA, myf5, MyoD1, MyoG, MRF4, IGF-I, IGF-II, IGF-IR, PIK3Ca, TOR, 4EBP1 and S6K1; (3) increased phosphorylation levels of AKT, TOR and S6K1; (4) decreased contents of MDA and PC, and increased activities of CAT, GST, GR, ASA and AHR; (5) up-regulated mRNA levels of CuZnSOD, CAT, GST, GPx, GCLC and Nrf2, and decreased Keap1 mRNA level; (6) increased nuclear Nrf2 protein level and the intranuclear antioxidant response element-binding ability, and reduced Keap1 protein level. These results indicated that dietary Trp improved muscle growth, protein synthesis as well as antioxidant capacity, which might be partly related to myogenic regulatory factors, IGF/PIK3Ca/AKT/TOR and Keap1/Nrf2 signalling pathways. Finally, based on the quadratic regression analysis of muscle protein and MDA contents, the optimal Trp requirements of hybrid catfish (21·82–39·64 g) were estimated to be 3·94 and 3·93 g Trp/kg diet (9·57 and 9·54 g/kg of dietary protein), respectively.