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This paper examines the effect of a tariff on long-run growth and welfare in a two-country innovation-led growth model. We show that although raising the home country’s tariff reduces the growth and GDP of the foreign country, it will backfire by depressing R&D and growth of the home country. The Nash equilibrium tariffs can be positive, and they are larger when the government expenditure is more beneficial to private production and/or when the productivity of innovation is higher. The presence of positive Nash equilibrium tariffs provides a theoretical explanation for why countries have incentives to implement a tariff policy regardless of its negative effect on growth. Finally, the Nash equilibrium tariffs are higher than the globally optimal tariffs, that is, the levels that maximize the joint welfare of both countries.
To establish optimal gestational weight gain (GWG) in Chinese pregnant women by Chinese-specific BMI categories and compare the new recommendations with the Institute of Medicine (IOM) 2009 guidelines.
Multicentre, prospective cohort study. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the OR, 95 % CI and the predicted probabilities of adverse pregnancy outcomes. The optimal GWG range was defined as the range that did not exceed a 1 % increase from the lowest predicted probability in each pre-pregnancy BMI group.
From nine cities in mainland China.
A total of 3731 women with singleton pregnancy were recruited from April 2013 to December 2014.
The optimal GWG (ranges) by Chinese-specific BMI was 15·0 (12·8–17·1), 14·2 (12·1–16·4) and 12·6 (10·4–14·9) kg for underweight, normal weight and overweight pregnant women, respectively. Inappropriate GWG was associated with several adverse pregnancy outcomes. Compared with women gaining weight within our proposed recommendations, women with excessive GWG had higher risk for macrosomia, large for gestational age and caesarean section, whereas those with inadequate GWG had higher risk for low birth weight, small for gestational age and preterm delivery. The comparison between our proposed recommendations and IOM 2009 guidelines showed that our recommendations were comparable with the IOM 2009 guidelines and could well predict the risk of several adverse pregnancy outcomes.
Inappropriate GWG was associated with higher risk of several adverse pregnancy outcomes. Optimal GWG recommendations proposed in the present study could be applied to Chinese pregnant women.
Although poverty associated with severe mental illness (SMI) has been documented in many studies, little long-term evidence of social drift exists. This study aimed to unravel the poverty transitions among persons with SMI in a fast change community in China.
Two mental health surveys, using the International Classification of Disease (ICD-10), were conducted in the same six townships of Xinjin county, Chengdu, China in 1994 and 2015. A total of 308 persons with SMI identified in 1994 were followed up in 2015. The profiles of poverty transitions were identified and regression modelling methods were applied to determine the predictive factors of poverty transitions.
The poverty rate of persons with SMI increased from 39.9% to 49.4% in 1994 and 2015. A larger proportion of them had fallen into poverty (27.3%) rather than moved out of it (17.8%). Those persons with SMI who had lost work ability, had physical illness and more severe mental disabilities in 1994, as well as those who had experienced negative changes on these factors were more likely to live in persistent poverty or fall into poverty. Higher education level and medical treatment were major protective factors of falling into poverty.
This study shows long-term evidence on the social drift of persons with SMI during the period of rapid social development in China. Further targeted poverty alleviation interventions should be crucial for improving treatment and mental recovery and alleviating poverty related to SMI.
Little is known about the trend and predictors of 21-year mortality and suicide patterns in persons with schizophrenia.
To explore the trend and predictors of 21-year mortality and suicide in persons with schizophrenia in rural China.
This longitudinal follow-up study included 510 persons with schizophrenia who were identified in a mental health survey of individuals (≥15 years old) in 1994 in six townships of Xinjin County, Chengdu, China, and followed up in three waves until 2015. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox hazard regressions were conducted.
Of the 510 participants, 196 died (38.4% mortality) between 1994 and 2015; 13.8% of the deaths (n = 27) were due to suicide. Life expectancy was lower for men than for women (50.6 v. 58.5 years). Males consistently showed higher rates of mortality and suicide than females. Older participants had higher mortality (hazard ratio HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05) but lower suicide rates (HR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.93–0.98) than their younger counterparts. Poor family attitudes were associated with all-cause mortality and death due to other causes; no previous hospital admission and a history of suicide attempts independently predicted death by suicide.
Our findings suggest there is a high mortality and suicide rate in persons with schizophrenia in rural China, with different predictive factors for mortality and suicide. It is important to develop culture-specific, demographically tailored and community-based mental healthcare and to strengthen family intervention to improve the long-term outcome of persons with schizophrenia.
Little is known about poverty trends in people with severe mental illness (SMI) over a long time span, especially under conditions of fast socioeconomic development.
This study aims to unravel changes in household poverty levels among people with SMI in a fast-changing rural community in China.
Two mental health surveys, using ICD-10, were conducted in the same six townships of Xinjin county, Chengdu, China. A total of 711 and 1042 people with SMI identified in 1994 and 2015, respectively, participated in the study. The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty index was adopted to measure the changes in household poverty. These changes were decomposed into effects of growth and equity using a static decomposition method. Factors associated with household poverty in 1994 and 2015 were examined and compared by regression analyses.
The proportion of poor households, as measured by the headcount ratio, increased significantly from 29.8% in 1994 to 39.5% in 2015. Decomposition showed that poverty in households containing people with SMI had worsened because of a redistribution effect. Factors associated with household poverty had also changed during the study period. The patient's age, ability to work and family size were of paramount significance in 2015.
This study shows that the levels of poverty faced by households containing people with SMI has become more pressing with China's fast socioeconomic development. It calls for further integration of mental health recovery and targeted antipoverty interventions for people with SMI as a development priority.
This paper discusses a detailed computational analysis that illustrated the influences of the magnetic field and external potential on the performance of a high-temperature Hall-effect electric thruster. Uniform and non-uniform magnetic field configurations were examined. The Lorentz force in the
direction, acting on the plasma, was shown to substantially enhance the flow velocity in the non-uniform magnetic field, which indicated that the non-uniform magnetic field was more suitable for Hall-effect electromagnetic acceleration. The static temperature increased with the external potential, especially near the region of cathode. This increment in gas temperature, together with the effect of the Lorentz force, results in the enhancement of the velocity at the front and back of the cathode. However, the Mach number and gas density decreased due to static temperature increases caused by the conversion of more electric power into internal energy. The thrust increased eventually with the increase of the average exit velocity.
The microbiota–gut–brain axis, especially the microbial tryptophan (Trp) biosynthesis and metabolism pathway (MiTBamp), may play a critical role in the pathogenesis of major depressive disorder (MDD). However, studies on the MiTBamp in MDD are lacking. The aim of the present study was to analyze the gut microbiota composition and the MiTBamp in MDD patients.
We performed shotgun metagenomic sequencing of stool samples from 26 MDD patients and 29 healthy controls (HCs). In addition to the microbiota community and the MiTBamp analyses, we also built a classification based on the Random Forests (RF) and Boruta algorithm to identify the gut microbiota as biomarkers for MDD.
The Bacteroidetes abundance was strongly reduced whereas that of Actinobacteria was significantly increased in the MDD patients compared with the abundance in the HCs. Most noteworthy, the MDD patients had increased levels of Bifidobacterium, which is commonly used as a probiotic. Four Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) orthologies (KOs) (K01817, K11358, K01626, K01667) abundances in the MiTBamp were significantly lower in the MDD group. Furthermore, we found a negative correlation between the K01626 abundance and the HAMD scores in the MDD group. Finally, RF classification at the genus level can achieve an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.890.
The present findings enabled a better understanding of the changes in gut microbiota and the related Trp pathway in MDD. Alterations of the gut microbiota may have the potential as biomarkers for distinguishing MDD patients form HCs.
The condition of caregivers is important to the quality of care received by people with Parkinson’s disease (PD), especially at the late disease stages. This study addresses the distress placed on caregivers by participants’ neuropsychiatric symptoms at different stages of PD in Taiwan
This prospective study enrolled 108 people with PD. All participants were examined with the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS), Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (CASI), and Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) scale. Caregiver distress was measured using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory Caregiver Distress Scale (NPI-D). Statistical analysis was used to explore the PD-related factors that contribute to caregiver distress.
The mean follow-up interval in the 108 PD participants were 24.0 ± 10.2 months with no participant lost to follow-up due to death. NPI-distress (the sum of NPI caregiver distress scale across the 12 domains of the NPI) was positively correlated with NPI-sum (the total score across the 12 domains of the NPI) (r = 0.787, p < 0.001), CDR (r = 0.403, p < 0.001), UPRDS (r = 0.276, p = 0.004), and disease duration (r = 0.246, p = 0.002), but negatively correlated with CASI (r = −0.237, p = 0.043) and MMSE (r = −0.281, p < 0.001). Multiple linear regression analysis showed that only NPI-sum and disease duration were independently correlated with NPI-distress.
The disease duration and NPI-sum are independent predictors of caregiver distress in Taiwanese populations with PD. Early detection and reduction of neuropsychiatric symptoms in people with PD can help decrease caregiver distress.
In this article, we evaluate the effect of managerial entrenchment on corporate information production using the voting outcomes of shareholder-initiated proposals intended to mitigate managerial entrenchment. We focus on the proposals that are passed or rejected by a small margin of votes, which generate plausibly exogenous variations in managerial entrenchment. We find that a reduction in managerial entrenchment enhances corporate information production. The effects are stronger for firms with greater information asymmetries and severer agency frictions. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the view that reducing managerial entrenchment enhances corporate disclosure by aligning the incentives of managers and shareholders.
Guangxi, a province in southwestern China, has the second highest reported number of HIV/AIDS cases in China. This study aimed to develop an accurate and effective model to describe the tendency of HIV and to predict its incidence in Guangxi. HIV incidence data of Guangxi from 2005 to 2016 were obtained from the database of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, generalised regression neural network (GRNN) models and exponential smoothing (ES) were used to fit the incidence data. Data from 2015 and 2016 were used to validate the most suitable models. The model performances were evaluated by evaluating metrics, including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. The LSTM model had the lowest MSE when the N value (time step) was 12. The most appropriate ARIMA models for incidence in 2015 and 2016 were ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 2)12 and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) (1, 1, 2)12, respectively. The accuracy of GRNN and ES models in forecasting HIV incidence in Guangxi was relatively poor. Four performance metrics of the LSTM model were all lower than the ARIMA, GRNN and ES models. The LSTM model was more effective than other time-series models and is important for the monitoring and control of local HIV epidemics.
Although it is crucial to improve the treatment status of people with severe mental illness (SMI), it is still unknown whether and how socioeconomic development influences their treatment status.
To explore the change in treatment status in people with SMI from 1994 to 2015 in rural China and to examine the factors influencing treatment status in those with SMI.
Two mental health surveys using identical methods and ICD-10 were conducted in 1994 and 2015 (population ≥15 years old, n = 152 776) in the same six townships of Xinjin County, Chengdu, China.
Compared with 1994, individuals with SMI in 2015 had significantly higher rates of poor family economic status, fewer family caregivers, longer duration of illness, later age at first onset and poor mental status. Participants in 2015 had significantly higher rates of never being treated, taking antipsychotic drugs and ever being admitted to hospital, and lower rates of using traditional Chinese medicine or being treated by traditional/spiritual healers. The factors strongly associated with never being treated included worse mental status (symptoms/social functioning), older age, having no family caregivers and poor family economic status.
Socioeconomic development influences the treatment status of people with SMI in contemporary rural China. Relative poverty, having no family caregivers and older age are important factors associated with a worse treatment status. Culture-specific, community-based interventions and targeted poverty-alleviation programmes should be developed to improve the early identification, treatment and recovery of individuals with SMI in rural China.
The study of the relationship among the manufacturing process, the structure and the property of materials can help to develop the new materials. The material images contain the microstructures of materials, therefore, the quantitative analysis for the material images is the important means to study the characteristics of material structures. Generally, the quantitative analysis for the material microstructures is based on the exact segmentation of the materials images. However, most material microstructures are shown with various shapes and complex textures in images, and they seriously hinder the exact segmentation of the component elements. In this research, machine learning method and complex networks method are adopted to the challenge of automatic material image segmentation. Two segmentation tasks are completed: on the one hand, the images of the titanium alloy are segmented based on the pixel-level classification through feature extraction and machine learning algorithm; on the other hand, the ceramic images are segmented with the complex networks theory. In the first task, texture and shape features near each pixel in titanium alloy image are calculated, such as Gabor filters, Hu moments and GLCM (Gray-Level Co-occurrence Matrix) etc.. The feature vector for the pixel can be obtained by arraying these features. Then, classification is performed with the random forest model. Once each pixel is classified, the image segmentation is completed. In the second task, a complex network structure is built for the ceramic image. Then, a clustering algorithm of complex network is used to obtain network connection area. Finally, the clustered network structure is mapped back to the image and getting the contours among the component elements. The experimental results demonstrate that these methods can accurately segment material images.
This paper extends the Chamley–Judd framework by introducing preference externalities in a neoclassical growth model, and finds that the optimal capital tax increases with the extent of social-status seeking or negative leisure externalities. Furthermore, this paper finds that differences in leisure externalities lead to a distinct impact on optimal factor income taxes, and hence may serve as a plausible vehicle to explain the empirical differences in factor income taxation in the United States and Europe.
This study investigates numerically the performance of applying aerospike nozzle in a hydrogen peroxide mono-propellant propulsion system. A set of governing equations, including continuity, momentum, energy and species conservation equations with extended k-ε turbulence equations, are solved using the finite-volume method. The hydrogen peroxide mono-propellant is assumed to be fully decomposed into water vapor and oxygen after flowing through a catalyst bed before entering the nozzle. The aerospike nozzle is expected to have high performance even in deep throttling cases due to its self-compensating characteristics in a wide range of ambient pressure environments. The results show that the thrust coefficient efficiency (Cf,η) of this work exceeds 90% of the theoretical value with a nozzle pressure ratio (PR) in the range of 20 ~ 45. Many complex gas dynamics phenomena in the aerospike nozzle are found and explained in the paper. In addition, performance of the aerospike nozzle is compared with that of the bell-shape nozzle.
We report the utility of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) conducted in a clinically relevant time frame (ie, sufficient for guiding management decision), in managing a Streptococcus pyogenes outbreak, and present a comparison of its performance with emm typing.
A 2,000-bed tertiary-care psychiatric hospital.
Active surveillance was conducted to identify new cases of S. pyogenes. WGS guided targeted epidemiological investigations, and infection control measures were implemented. Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)–based genome phylogeny, emm typing, and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) were performed. We compared the ability of WGS and emm typing to correctly identify person-to-person transmission and to guide the management of the outbreak.
The study included 204 patients and 152 staff. We identified 35 patients and 2 staff members with S. pyogenes. WGS revealed polyclonal S. pyogenes infections with 3 genetically distinct phylogenetic clusters (C1–C3). Cluster C1 isolates were all emm type 4, sequence type 915 and had pairwise SNP differences of 0–5, which suggested recent person-to-person transmissions. Epidemiological investigation revealed that cluster C1 was mediated by dermal colonization and transmission of S. pyogenes in a male residential ward. Clusters C2 and C3 were genomically diverse, with pairwise SNP differences of 21–45 and 26–58, and emm 11 and mostly emm120, respectively. Clusters C2 and C3, which may have been considered person-to-person transmissions by emm typing, were shown by WGS to be unlikely by integrating pairwise SNP differences with epidemiology.
WGS had higher resolution than emm typing in identifying clusters with recent and ongoing person-to-person transmissions, which allowed implementation of targeted intervention to control the outbreak.