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Seismic hazard and risk analyses underpin the loadings prescribed by engineering design codes, the decisions by asset owners to retrofit structures, the pricing of insurance policies, and many other activities. This is a comprehensive overview of the principles and procedures behind seismic hazard and risk analysis. It enables readers to understand best practises and future research directions. Early chapters cover the essential elements and concepts of seismic hazard and risk analysis, while later chapters shift focus to more advanced topics. Each chapter includes worked examples and problem sets for which full solutions are provided online. Appendices provide relevant background in probability and statistics. Computer codes are also available online to help replicate specific calculations and demonstrate the implementation of various methods. This is a valuable reference for upper level students and practitioners in civil engineering, and earth scientists interested in engineering seismology.
Although the incidence of psychotic disorders among older people is substantial, little is known about the association with subsequent dementia. We aimed to examine the rate of dementia diagnosis in individuals with very late-onset schizophrenia-like psychosis (VLOSLP) compared to those without VLOSLP.
Using Swedish population register data, we established a cohort of 15 409 participants with VLOSLP matched by age and calendar period to 154 090 individuals without VLOSLP. Participants were born between 1920 and 1949 and followed from their date of first International Classification of Diseases [ICD], Revisions 8–10 (ICD-8/9/10) non-affective psychotic disorder diagnosis after age 60 years old (or the same date for matched participants) until the end of follow-up (30th December 2011), emigration, death, or first recorded ICD-8/9/10 dementia diagnosis.
We found a substantially higher rate of dementia in individuals with VLOSLP [hazard ratio (HR): 4.22, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 4.05–4.41]. Median time-to-dementia-diagnosis was 75% shorter in those with VLOSLP (time ratio: 0.25, 95% CI 0.24–0.26). This association was strongest in the first year following VLOSLP diagnosis, and attenuated over time, although dementia rates remained higher in participants with VLOSLP for up to 20 years of follow-up. This association remained after accounting for potential misdiagnosis (2-year washout HR: 2.22, 95% CI 2.10–2.36), ascertainment bias (HR: 2.89, 95% CI 2.75–3.04), and differing mortality patterns between groups (subdistribution HR: 2.89, 95% CI 2.77–3.03).
Our findings demonstrate that individuals with VLOSLP represent a high-risk group for subsequent dementia. This may be due to early prodromal changes for some individuals, highlighting the importance of ongoing symptom monitoring in people with VLOSLP.
The unprecedented occurrence of a global pandemic is accompanied by both physical and psychological burdens that may impair quality of life. Research relating to COVID-19 aims to determine the effects of the pandemic on vulnerable populations who are at high risk of developing negative health or psychosocial outcomes. Having an ongoing medical condition during a pandemic may lead to greater psychological distress. Increased psychological distress may be due to preventative public health measures (e.g. lockdown), having an ongoing medical condition, or a combination of these factors.
This study analyses data from an online cross-sectional national survey of adults in Ireland and investigates the relationship between comorbidity and psychological distress. Those with a medical condition (n = 128) were compared to a control group without a medical condition (n = 128) and matched according to age, gender, annual income, education, and work status during COVID-19. Participants and data were obtained during the first public lockdown in Ireland (27 March 2020–8 June 2020).
Individuals with existing medical conditions reported significantly higher levels of anxiety (p < .01) and felt less gratitude (p ≤ .001). Exploratory analysis indicated that anxiety levels were significantly associated with illness perceptions specific to COVID-19. Post hoc analysis revealed that psychological well-being was not significantly related to condition type (e.g. respiratory disorders).
This research supports individualised supports for people with ongoing medical conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic, and has implications for the consideration of follow-up care specifically for mental health. Findings may also inform future public health policies and post-vaccine support strategies for vulnerable populations.
This study aimed to identify an appropriate simple mathematical model to fit the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the national level for the early portion of the pandemic, before significant public health interventions could be enacted. The total number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic over time in 28 countries was analysed and fit to several simple rate models. The resulting model parameters were used to extrapolate projections for more recent data. While the Gompertz growth model (mean R2 = 0.998) best fit the current data, uncertainties in the eventual case limit introduced significant model errors. However, the quadratic rate model (mean R2 = 0.992) fit the current data best for 25 (89%) countries as determined by R2 values of the remaining models. Projection to the future using the simple quadratic model accurately forecast the number of future total number of cases 50% of the time up to 10 days in advance. Extrapolation to the future with the simple exponential model significantly overpredicted the total number of future cases. These results demonstrate that accurate future predictions of the case load in a given country can be made using this very simple model.
This paper reports a rare case of a 61-year-old man with sialodochitis fibrinosa.
Clinical case report and review of current literature.
Sialodochitis fibrinosa is a diagnosis of exclusion and in many cases can be managed conservatively. Conservative management failed for this patient and he was managed successfully with staged bilateral total parotidectomy.
Sialodochitis fibrinosa should be considered as a differential diagnosis of painful bilateral facial swelling. While conservative management is successful for many patients, staged bilateral total parotidectomy may be necessary for full remission of symptoms; the timing of this is crucial to reduce the risk of facial nerve palsy.
Stigma against patients with functional neurological disorder (FND) presents obstacles to diagnosis, treatment, and research. The lack of biomarkers and the potential for symptoms to be misunderstood, invalidated, or dismissed can leave patients, families, and healthcare professionals at a loss. Stigma exacerbates suffering and unmet needs of patients and families, and can result in poor clinical management and prolonged, repetitive use of healthcare resources. Our current understanding of stigma in FND comes from surveys documenting frustration experienced by providers and distressing healthcare interactions experienced by patients. However, little is known about the origins of FND stigma, its prevalence across different healthcare contexts, its impact on patient health outcomes, and optimal methods for reduction. In this paper, we set forth a research agenda directed at better understanding the prevalence and context of stigma, clarifying its impact on patients and providers, and promoting best practices for stigma reduction.
Is a logicist bound to the claim that as a matter of analytic truth there is an actual infinity of objects? If Hume’s Principle is analytic then in the standard setting the answer appears to be yes. Hodes’s work pointed to a way out by offering a modal picture in which only a potential infinity was posited. However, this project was abandoned due to apparent failures of cross-world predication. We re-explore this idea and discover that in the setting of the potential infinite one can interpret first-order Peano arithmetic, but not second-order Peano arithmetic. We conclude that in order for the logicist to weaken the metaphysically loaded claim of necessary actual infinities, they must also weaken the mathematics they recover.
Nearly 80% of new cases of myopia arise between 9 and 13 years old when puberty development also progresses rapidly. However, little is known about the association between myopia and puberty. We aim to evaluate the association between myopia and menarche, the most important puberty indicator for girls, and to test whether menarche could modify the effects of myopia-related behaviors. The participants came from two consecutive national surveys conducted in 30 provinces in mainland China in 2010 and 2014. We included 102,883 girls (61% had experienced menarche) aged 10–15 years. Risk behaviors for myopia which included sleep duration, homework time, and outdoor activity were measured by self-administrated questionnaire. Myopia was defined according to a validated method, and its relationships with menarche status and behaviors were evaluated by robust Poisson regression models based on generalized estimated equation adjusting for cluster effect of school. We found that postmenarche girls were at 13% (95% confidence interval: 11%–16%) higher risk of myopia than premenarche girls, after adjusting for exact age, urban–rural location, survey year, and four behavioral covariates. Short sleep duration (<7 h/d), long homework time (>1 h/d) and low frequency of weekend outdoor activity tended to be stronger (with higher prevalence ratios associated with myopia) risk factors for myopia in postmenarche girls than in premenarche girls, and their interaction with menarche status was all statistically significant (P < 0.05). Overall, our study suggests that menarche onset may be associated with increased risk of myopia among school-aged girls and could also enhance girls’ sensitivity to myopia-related risk behaviors.
The chapter traces the rich legacy of the romantic literature in Ireland, through consideration of the varied influences of key Irish and English writings of the later eighteenth and early nineteenth century on Irish writers of recent decades. It suggests that the reappraisal of romanticism in the 1980s and 1990s has important implications for Irish literary history, in that the plurality and inclusiveness of the ‘romantic period’ and increasing emphasis on historical contexts, locations, colonialism, and gender are especially helpful for approaching leading Irish writers of the time, such as Maria Edgeworth, Edmund Burke, Thomas Moore, Richard Brinsley Sheridan, and emerging genres such as national tales, gothic fiction, political prose, and periodical literature. Recognition of the variousness of romantic-period literature also complicates the later twentieth-century legacies, opening lines of inheritance from John Clare to Michael Longley, Maria Edgeworth to William Trevor, Raftery to Derek Mahon. The perhaps better-known engagements of Seamus Heaney with Wordsworth, Paul Muldoon with Samuel Taylor Coleridge and Robert Southey, or Ciaran Carson with John Keats are thus considered as part of the larger picture of continuing connections between the romantic period and modern Irish literature.
The Preface briefly sets out the contrast between anthropology, psychology and economics as three human science disciplines with overlapping subject matters but very different ways of approaching reality. It touches on the question of human self-education in history and also alludes to the comparison between (notionally communist) China and (capitalist) Taiwan.
takes up the issue of human ‘self-education’ first raised in the Preface. The Marxist theory of self-education is compared with the approach of utilitarians/consequentialists to human agency that underpins (at least to some extent) much of the recent work in the field of economic psychology. It is argued that these two approaches are not as incompatible as is often assumed. More broadly, the author engages with recent work in the psychology of cooperation, which intersects in important ways with both Marxist and consequentialist approaches.
, the Introduction, covers the general relationship between the approaches of anthropologists, psychologists and economists to economic life, noting that anthropologists have been very resistant to both psychological and ‘economistic’ approaches (as they understand these) to studying the human economy.
returns to the question of number and numeracy that was first alluded to in the Introduction and that plays an important part in the psychology of economic life. The author draws attention to the complex way in which a ‘qualitative mathematics’ factors into Chinese understandings of economic life and economic agency.
focuses on economic decision making and the role that cultural-historical artefacts (such as religious beliefs) may play in this everyday aspect of life. It brings together anthropological approaches with studies of decision making in psychology and cognitive science. The main example is of decisions about risky, but potentially profitable, fishing trips made from Taiwan.
examines the politics of cognition – but also the politics of cognitive anthropology. It is noted that anthropologists treat psychological approaches to social life as being somehow apolitical or even politically dubious, but this position is based on a rather strange reading of actual work in cognitive anthropology. The text also engages with the politics of self-education in both Taiwan and China.