The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

For a common micro-satellite, orbiting in a circular sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) at an altitude between 500 and 600km, the satellite attitude during off-nadir imaging and staring-imaging operations can be up to ±45 degree on roll and pitch angles. During these off-nadir pointing for both multi-trip operation and staring imaging operations, the spacecraft body is commonly subject to high-rate motion. This posts challenges for a spacecraft attitude determination subsystem called Gyro Stellar Inertial Attitude Estimate (GS IAE), which employs gyros and star sensors to maintain the required attitude knowledge, since star trackers will severely degrade attitude estimation accuracies when the spacecraft is subject to high-rate motion. This paper analyses the star motion-induced errors for a typical star tracker, models the star motion-induced errors to assess the performance impact on the attitude estimation accuracy, and investigates the adaptive extended Kalman filter design in the GS IAE while evaluating its effectiveness.

To investigate the influences of dietary riboflavin (RF) addition on nutrient digestion and rumen fermentation, eight rumen cannulated Holstein bulls were randomly allocated into four treatments in a repeated 4 × 4 Latin square design. Daily addition level of RF for each bull in control, low RF, medium RF and high RF was 0, 300, 600 and 900 mg, respectively. Increasing the addition level of RF, DM intake was not affected, average daily gain tended to be increased linearly and feed conversion ratio decreased linearly. Total tract digestibilities of DM, organic matter, crude protein (CP) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) increased linearly. Rumen pH decreased quadratically, and total volatile fatty acids (VFA) increased quadratically. Acetate molar percentage and acetate:propionate ratio increased linearly, but propionate molar percentage and ammonia-N content decreased linearly. Rumen effective degradability of DM increased linearly, NDF increased quadratically but CP was unaltered. Activity of cellulase and populations of total bacteria, protozoa, fungi, dominant cellulolytic bacteria, Prevotella ruminicola and Ruminobacter amylophilus increased linearly. Linear increase was observed for urinary total purine derivatives excretion. The data suggested that dietary RF addition was essential for rumen microbial growth, and no further increase in performance and rumen total VFA concentration was observed when increasing RF level from 600 to 900 mg/d in dairy bulls.

Gravitational waves from coalescing neutron stars encode information about nuclear matter at extreme densities, inaccessible by laboratory experiments. The late inspiral is influenced by the presence of tides, which depend on the neutron star equation of state. Neutron star mergers are expected to often produce rapidly rotating remnant neutron stars that emit gravitational waves. These will provide clues to the extremely hot post-merger environment. This signature of nuclear matter in gravitational waves contains most information in the 2–4 kHz frequency band, which is outside of the most sensitive band of current detectors. We present the design concept and science case for a Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory (NEMO): a gravitational-wave interferometer optimised to study nuclear physics with merging neutron stars. The concept uses high-circulating laser power, quantum squeezing, and a detector topology specifically designed to achieve the high-frequency sensitivity necessary to probe nuclear matter using gravitational waves. Above 1 kHz, the proposed strain sensitivity is comparable to full third-generation detectors at a fraction of the cost. Such sensitivity changes expected event rates for detection of post-merger remnants from approximately one per few decades with two A+ detectors to a few per year and potentially allow for the first gravitational-wave observations of supernovae, isolated neutron stars, and other exotica.

To evaluate the impacts of guanidinoacetic acid (GAA) and coated folic acid (CFA) on growth performance, nutrient digestion and hepatic gene expression, fifty-two Angus bulls were assigned to four groups in a 2 × 2 factor experimental design. The CFA of 0 or 6 mg/kg dietary DM folic acid was supplemented in diets with GAA of 0 (GAA−) or 0·6 g/kg DM (GAA+), respectively. Average daily gain (ADG), feed efficiency and hepatic creatine concentration increased with GAA or CFA addition, and the increased magnitude of these parameters was greater for addition of CFA in GAA− diets than in GAA+ diets. Blood creatine concentration increased with GAA or CFA addition, and greater increase was observed when CFA was supplemented in GAA+ diets than in GAA− diets. DM intake was unchanged, but rumen total SCFA concentration and digestibilities of DM, crude protein, neutral-detergent fibre and acid-detergent fibre increased with the addition of GAA or CFA. Acetate:propionate ratio was unaffected by GAA, but increased for CFA addition. Increase in blood concentrations of albumin, total protein and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) was observed for GAA or CFA addition. Blood folate concentration was decreased by GAA, but increased with CFA addition. Hepatic expressions of IGF-1, phosphoinositide 3-kinase, protein kinase B, mammalian target of rapamycin and ribosomal protein S6 kinase increased with GAA or CFA addition. Results indicated that the combined supplementation of GAA and CFA could not cause ADG increase more when compared with GAA or CFA addition alone.

To evaluate the dynamic properties of a coupled structure based on the dynamic properties of its substructures, this paper investigates the dynamic substructuring issue from the perspective of response prediction. The main idea is that the connecting forces at the interface of substructures can be expressed by the unknown coupled structural responses, and the responses can be solved rather easily. Not only rigidly coupled structures but also resiliently coupled structures are investigated. In order to further comprehend and visualize the nature of coupling problems, the Neumann series expansion for a matrix describing the relation between the coupled and uncoupled substructures is also introduced in this paper. Compared with existing response prediction methods, the proposed method does not have to measure any forces, which makes it easier to apply than the others. Clearly, the frequency response function matrix of coupled structures can be derived directly based on the response prediction method. Compared with existing frequency response function synthesis methods, it is more straightforward and comprehensible. Through demonstration of two examples, it is concluded that the proposed method can deal with structural coupling problems very well.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a “disaster of uncertainty” with ambiguity about its nature and trajectory. These features amplify its psychological toxicity and increase the number of psychological casualties it inflicts. Uncertainty was fueled by lack of knowledge about the lethality of a disaster, its duration, and ambiguity in messaging from leaders and health care authorities. Human resilience can have a buffering effect on the psychological impact. Experts have advocated “flattening the curve” to slow the spread of the infection. Our strategy for crisis leadership is focused on flattening the rise in psychological casualties by increasing resilience among health care workers. This paper describes an approach employed at Johns Hopkins to promote and enhance crisis leadership. The approach is based on 4 factors: vision for the future, decisiveness, effective communication, and following a moral compass. We make specific actionable recommendations for implementing these factors that are being disseminated to frontline leaders and managers. The COVID-19 pandemic is destined to have a strong psychological impact that extends far beyond the end of quarantine. Following these guidelines has the potential to build resilience and thus reduce the number of psychological casualties and speed the return to normal – or at least the new normal in the post-COVID world.

Coated copper sulphate (CCS) could be used as a Cu supplement in cows. To investigate the influences of copper sulphate (CS) and CCS on milk performance, nutrient digestion and rumen fermentation, fifty Holstein dairy cows were arranged in a randomised block design to five groups: control, CS addition (7·5 mg Cu/kg DM from CS) or CCS addition (5, 7·5 and 10 mg Cu/kg DM from CCS, respectively). When comparing Cu source at equal inclusion rates (7·5 mg/kg DM), cows receiving CCS addition had higher yields of fat-corrected milk, milk fat and protein; digestibility of DM, organic matter (OM) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF); ruminal total volatile fatty acid (VFA) concentration; activities of carboxymethyl cellulase, cellobiase, pectinase and α-amylase; populations of Ruminococcus albus, Ruminococcus flavefaciens and Fibrobacter succinogenes; and liver Cu content than cows receiving CS addition. Increasing CCS addition, DM intake was unchanged, yields of milk, milk fat and protein; feed efficiency; digestibility of DM, OM, NDF and acid-detergent fibre; ruminal total VFA concentration; acetate:propionate ratio; activity of cellulolytic enzyme; populations of total bacteria, protozoa and dominant cellulolytic bacteria; and concentrations of Cu in serum and liver increased linearly, but ruminal propionate percentage, ammonia-N concentration, α-amylase activity and populations of Prevotella ruminicola and Ruminobacter amylophilus decreased linearly. The results indicated that supplement of CS could be substituted with CCS and addition of CCS improved milk performance and nutrient digestion in dairy cows.

Guanidinoacetic acid (GAA) can improve the growth performance of bulls. This study investigated the influences of GAA addition on growth, nutrient digestion, ruminal fermentation and serum metabolites in bulls. Forty-eight Angus bulls were randomly allocated to experimental treatments, that is, control, low-GAA (LGAA), medium-GAA (MGAA) and high-GAA (HGAA), with GAA supplementation at 0, 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 g/kg DM, respectively. Bulls were fed a basal diet containing 500 g/kg DM concentrate and 500 g/kg DM roughage. The experimental period was 104 days, with 14 days for adaptation and 90 days for data collection. Bulls in the MGAA and HGAA groups had higher DM intake and average daily gain than bulls in the LGAA and control groups. The feed conversion ratio was lowest in MGAA and highest in the control. Bulls receiving 0.9 g/kg DM GAA addition had higher digestibility of DM, organic matter, NDF and ADF than bulls in other groups. The digestibility of CP was higher for HGAA than for LGAA and control. The ruminal pH was lower for MGAA, and the total volatile fatty acid concentration was greater for MGAA and HGAA than for the control. The acetate proportion and acetate-to-propionate ratio were lower for MGAA than for LGAA and control. The propionate proportion was higher for MGAA than for control. Bulls receiving GAA addition showed decreased ruminal ammonia N. Bulls in MGAA and HGAA had higher cellobiase, pectinase and protease activities and Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens, Prevotella ruminicola and Ruminobacter amylophilus populations than bulls in LGAA and control. However, the total protozoan population was lower for MGAA and HGAA than for LGAA and control. The total bacterial and Ruminococcus flavefaciens populations increased with GAA addition. The blood level of creatine was higher for HGAA, and the activity of l-arginine glycine amidine transferase was lower for MGAA and HGAA, than for control. The blood activity of guanidine acetate N-methyltransferase and the level of folate decreased in the GAA addition groups. The results indicated that dietary addition of 0.6 or 0.9 g/kg DM GAA improved growth performance, nutrient digestion and ruminal fermentation in bulls.

Phytase has long been used to decrease the inorganic phosphorus (Pi) input in poultry diet. The current study was conducted to investigate the effects of Pi supplementation on laying performance, egg quality and phosphate–calcium metabolism in Hy-Line Brown laying hens fed phytase. Layers (n = 504, 29 weeks old) were randomly assigned to seven treatments with six replicates of 12 birds. The corn–soybean meal-based diet contained 0.12% non-phytate phosphorus (nPP), 3.8% calcium, 2415 IU/kg vitamin D3 and 2000 FTU/kg phytase. Inorganic phosphorus (in the form of mono-dicalcium phosphate) was added into the basal diet to construct seven experimental diets; the final dietary nPP levels were 0.12%, 0.17%, 0.22%, 0.27%, 0.32%, 0.37% and 0.42%. The feeding trial lasted 12 weeks (hens from 29 to 40 weeks of age). Laying performance (housed laying rate, egg weight, egg mass, daily feed intake and feed conversion ratio) was weekly calculated. Egg quality (egg shape index, shell strength, shell thickness, albumen height, yolk colour and Haugh units), serum parameters (calcium, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, calcitonin and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D), tibia quality (breaking strength, and calcium, phosphorus and ash contents), intestinal gene expression (type IIb sodium-dependent phosphate cotransporter, NaPi-IIb) and phosphorus excretion were determined at the end of the trial. No differences were observed on laying performance, egg quality, serum parameters and tibia quality. Hens fed 0.17% nPP had increased (P < 0.01) duodenum NaPi-IIb expression compared to all other treatments. Phosphorus excretion linearly increased with an increase in dietary nPP (phosphorus excretion = 1.7916 × nPP + 0.2157; R2 = 0.9609, P = 0.001). In conclusion, corn–soybean meal-based diets containing 0.12% nPP, 3.8% calcium, 2415 IU/kg vitamin D3 and 2000 FTU/kg phytase would meet the requirements for egg production in Hy-Line Brown laying hens (29 to 40 weeks of age).

The Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) has observed the entire southern sky (Declination, $\delta< 30^{\circ}$ ) at low radio frequencies, over the range 72–231MHz. These observations constitute the GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky MWA (GLEAM) Survey, and we use the extragalactic catalogue (EGC) (Galactic latitude, $|b| >10^{\circ}$ ) to define the GLEAM 4-Jy (G4Jy) Sample. This is a complete sample of the ‘brightest’ radio sources ( $S_{\textrm{151\,MHz}}>4\,\text{Jy}$ ), the majority of which are active galactic nuclei with powerful radio jets. Crucially, low-frequency observations allow the selection of such sources in an orientation-independent way (i.e. minimising the bias caused by Doppler boosting, inherent in high-frequency surveys). We then use higher-resolution radio images, and information at other wavelengths, to morphologically classify the brightest components in GLEAM. We also conduct cross-checks against the literature and perform internal matching, in order to improve sample completeness (which is estimated to be $>95.5$ %). This results in a catalogue of 1863 sources, making the G4Jy Sample over 10 times larger than that of the revised Third Cambridge Catalogue of Radio Sources (3CRR; $S_{\textrm{178\,MHz}}>10.9\,\text{Jy}$ ). Of these G4Jy sources, 78 are resolved by the MWA (Phase-I) synthesised beam ( $\sim2$ arcmin at 200MHz), and we label 67% of the sample as ‘single’, 26% as ‘double’, 4% as ‘triple’, and 3% as having ‘complex’ morphology at $\sim1\,\text{GHz}$ (45 arcsec resolution). We characterise the spectral behaviour of these objects in the radio and find that the median spectral index is $\alpha=-0.740 \pm 0.012$ between 151 and 843MHz, and $\alpha=-0.786 \pm 0.006$ between 151MHz and 1400MHz (assuming a power-law description, $S_{\nu} \propto \nu^{\alpha}$ ), compared to $\alpha=-0.829 \pm 0.006$ within the GLEAM band. Alongside this, our value-added catalogue provides mid-infrared source associations (subject to 6” resolution at 3.4 $\mu$ m) for the radio emission, as identified through visual inspection and thorough checks against the literature. As such, the G4Jy Sample can be used as a reliable training set for cross-identification via machine-learning algorithms. We also estimate the angular size of the sources, based on their associated components at $\sim1\,\text{GHz}$ , and perform a flux density comparison for 67 G4Jy sources that overlap with 3CRR. Analysis of multi-wavelength data, and spectral curvature between 72MHz and 20GHz, will be presented in subsequent papers, and details for accessing all G4Jy overlays are provided at https://github.com/svw26/G4Jy.

The entire southern sky (Declination, $\delta< 30^{\circ}$ ) has been observed using the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA), which provides radio imaging of $\sim$ 2 arcmin resolution at low frequencies (72–231 MHz). This is the GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky MWA (GLEAM) Survey, and we have previously used a combination of visual inspection, cross-checks against the literature, and internal matching to identify the ‘brightest’ radio-sources ( $S_{\mathrm{151\,MHz}}>4$ Jy) in the extragalactic catalogue (Galactic latitude, $|b| >10^{\circ}$ ). We refer to these 1 863 sources as the GLEAM 4-Jy (G4Jy) Sample, and use radio images (of ${\leq}45$ arcsec resolution), and multi-wavelength information, to assess their morphology and identify the galaxy that is hosting the radio emission (where appropriate). Details of how to access all of the overlays used for this work are available at https://github.com/svw26/G4Jy. Alongside this we conduct further checks against the literature, which we document here for individual sources. Whilst the vast majority of the G4Jy Sample are active galactic nuclei with powerful radio-jets, we highlight that it also contains a nebula, two nearby, star-forming galaxies, a cluster relic, and a cluster halo. There are also three extended sources for which we are unable to infer the mechanism that gives rise to the low-frequency emission. In the G4Jy catalogue we provide mid-infrared identifications for 86% of the sources, and flag the remainder as: having an uncertain identification (129 sources), having a faint/uncharacterised mid-infrared host (126 sources), or it being inappropriate to specify a host (2 sources). For the subset of 129 sources, there is ambiguity concerning candidate host-galaxies, and this includes four sources (B0424–728, B0703–451, 3C 198, and 3C 403.1) where we question the existing identification.

Fluid motion has two well-known fundamental processes: the vector transverse process characterized by vorticity, and the scalar longitudinal process consisting of a sound mode and an entropy mode, characterized by dilatation and thermodynamic variables. The existing theories for the sound mode involve the multi-variable issue and its associated difficulty of source identification. In this paper, we define the source of sound inside the fluid by the objective causality inherent in dynamic equations relevant to a longitudinal process, which naturally favours the material time-rate operator $D/Dt$ rather than the local time-rate operator $\unicode[STIX]{x2202}/\unicode[STIX]{x2202}t$, and describes the sound mode by inhomogeneous advective wave equations. The sources of sound physical production inside the fluid are then examined at two levels. For the conventional formulation in terms of thermodynamic variables at the first level, we show that the universal kinematic source can be condensed to a scalar invariant of the surface deformation tensor. Further, in the formulation in terms of dilatation at the second level, we find that the sound mode in viscous and heat-conducting flow has sources from rich nonlinear couplings of vorticity, entropy and surface deformation, which cannot be disclosed at the first level. Preliminary numerical demonstration of the theoretical findings is made for two typical compressible flows, i.e. the interaction of two corotating Gaussian vortices and the unsteady type IV shock/shock interaction. The results obtained in this study provide a new theoretical basis for, and physical insight into, understanding various nonlinear longitudinal processes and the interactions therein.

This study evaluated the effects of rumen-protected folic acid (RPFA) and betaine (BT) on growth performance, nutrient digestion and blood metabolites in bulls. Forty-eight Angus bulls were blocked by body weight and randomly assigned to four treatments in a 2 × 2 factorial design. BT of 0 or 0·6 g/kg DM was supplemented to diet without or with the addition of 6 mg/kg DM of folic acid from RPFA, respectively. Average daily gain increased by 25·2 and 6·29 % for addition of BT without RPFA and with RPFA, respectively. Digestibility and ruminal total volatile fatty acids of neutral-detergent fibre and acid-detergent fibre increased, feed conversion ratio and blood folate decreased with the addition of BT without RPFA, but these parameters were unchanged with BT addition in diet with RPFA. Digestibility of DM, organic matter and crude protein as well as acetate:propionate ratio increased with RPFA or BT addition. Ruminal ammonia-N decreased with RPFA addition. Activity of carboxymethyl cellulase, cellobiase, xylanase, pectinase and protease as well as population of total bacteria, protozoa, Fibrobacter succinogenes and Ruminobacter amylophilus increased with RPFA or BT addition. Laccase activity and total fungi, Ruminococcus flavefaciens and Prevotella ruminicola population increased with RPFA addition, whereas Ruminococcus albus population increased with BT addition. Blood glucose, total protein, albumin, growth hormone and insulin-like growth factor-1 increased with RPFA addition. Addition of RPFA or BT decreased blood homocysteine. The results indicated that addition of BT stimulated growth and nutrient digestion in bulls only when RPFA was not supplemented.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among infectious diseases. China has a high burden of TB and accounted for almost 13% of the world's cases of multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB. Spinal TB is one reason for the resurgence of TB in China. Few large case studies of MDR spinal TB in China have been conducted. The aim of this research was to observe the epidemiological characteristics of inpatients with MDR spinal TB in six provinces and cities of China from 1999–2015. This is a multicentre retrospective observational study. Patients' information was collected from the control disease centre and infectious disease database of hospitals in six provinces and cities in China. A total of 3137 patients with spinal TB and 272 patients with MDR spinal TB were analysed. The result showed that MDR spinal TB remains a public health concern and commonly affects patients 15–30 years of age (34.19%). The most common lesions involved the thoracolumbar spine (35.66%). Local pain was the most common symptom (98.53%). Logistic analysis showed that for spinal TB patients, reside in rural district (OR 1.79), advanced in years (OR 1.92) and high education degree (OR 2.22) were independent risk factors for the development of MDR spinal TB. Women were associated with a lower risk of MDR spinal TB (OR 0.48). The most common first-line and second-line resistant drug was isoniazid (68.75%) and levofloxacin (29.04%), respectively. The use of molecular diagnosis resulted in noteworthy clinical advances, including earlier initiation of MDR spinal TB treatment, improved infection control and better clinical outcome. Chemotherapy and surgery can yield satisfactory outcomes with timely diagnosis and long-term treatment. These results enable a better understanding of the MDR spinal TB in China among the general public.

The combined addition of branched-chain volatile fatty acids (BCVFAs) and folic acid (FA) could improve growth performance and nutrient utilization by stimulating ruminal microbial growth and enzyme activity. This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of BCVFA and FA addition on growth performance, ruminal fermentation, nutrient digestibility, microbial enzyme activity, microflora and excretion of urinary purine derivatives (PDs) in calves. Thirty-six Chinese Holstein weaned calves (60 ± 5.4 days of age and 107 ± 4.7 kg of BW) were assigned to one of four groups in a randomized block design. Treatments were control (without additives), FA (with 10 mg FA/kg dietary DM), BCVFA (with 5 g BCVFA/kg dietary DM) and the combined addition of FA and BCVFA (10 mg/kg DM of FA and 5 g/kg DM of BCVFA). Supplements were hand-mixed into the top one-third of total mixed ration. Dietary concentrate to maize silage ratio was 50 : 50 on a DM basis. Dietary BCVFA or FA addition did not affect dry matter intake but increased average daily gain (ADG) and feed conversion efficiency. Ruminal pH and ammonia N were lower, and total volatile fatty acids (VFAs) concentration was higher for BCVFA or FA addition than for control. Dietary BCVFA or FA addition did not affect acetate proportion but decreased propionate proportion and increased acetate to propionate ratio. Total tract digestibility of DM, organic matter, CP and NDF was higher for BCVFA or FA addition than for control. Dietary BCVFA or FA addition increased activity of carboxymethyl cellulase and cellobiase, population of total bacteria, fungi, Ruminococcus albus, R. flavefaciens, Fibrobacter succinogenes and Prevotella ruminicola as well as total PD excretion. Ruminal xylanase, pectinase and protease activity and Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens population were increased by BCVFA addition, whereas population of protozoa and methanogens was increased by FA addition. The BCVFA × FA interaction was significant for acetate to propionate ratio, cellobiase activity and total PD excretion, and these variables increased more with FA addition in diet without BCVFA than in diet with BCVFA. The data indicated that supplementation with BCVFA or FA increased ADG, nutrient digestibility, ruminal total VFA concentration and microbial protein synthesis by stimulating ruminal microbial growth and enzyme activity in calves.