Higher milk intake has been associated with a lower stroke risk, but not with risk of CHD. Residual confounding or reverse causation cannot be excluded. Therefore, we estimated the causal association of milk consumption with stroke and CHD risk through instrumental variable (IV) and gene-outcome analyses. IV analysis included 29 328 participants (4611 stroke; 9828 CHD) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD (eight European countries) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) case-cohort studies. rs4988235, a lactase persistence (LP) SNP which enables digestion of lactose in adulthood was used as genetic instrument. Intake of milk was first regressed on rs4988235 in a linear regression model. Next, associations of genetically predicted milk consumption with stroke and CHD were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Gene-outcome analysis included 777 024 participants (50 804 cases) from MEGASTROKE (including EPIC-CVD), UK Biobank and EPIC-NL for stroke, and 483 966 participants (61 612 cases) from CARDIoGRAM, UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD and EPIC-NL for CHD. In IV analyses, each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk in EPIC-CVD (β = 13·7 g/d; 95 % CI 8·4, 19·1) and EPIC-NL (36·8 g/d; 95 % CI 20·0, 53·5). Genetically predicted milk intake was not associated with stroke (HR per 25 g/d 1·05; 95 % CI 0·94, 1·16) or CHD (1·02; 95 % CI 0·96, 1·08). In gene-outcome analyses, there was no association of rs4988235 with risk of stroke (OR 1·02; 95 % CI 0·99, 1·05) or CHD (OR 0·99; 95 % CI 0·95, 1·03). Current Mendelian randomisation analysis does not provide evidence for a causal inverse relationship between milk consumption and stroke or CHD risk.

Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.

Prevalence of skin sores and scabies in remote Australian Aboriginal communities remains unacceptably high, with Group A Streptococcus (GAS) the dominant pathogen. We aim to better understand the drivers of GAS transmission using mathematical models. To estimate the force of infection, we quantified the age of first skin sores and scabies infection by pooling historical data from three studies conducted across five remote Aboriginal communities for children born between 2001 and 2005. We estimated the age of the first infection using the Kaplan–Meier estimator; parametric exponential mixture model; and Cox proportional hazards. For skin sores, the mean age of the first infection was approximately 10 months and the median was 7 months, with some heterogeneity in median observed by the community. For scabies, the mean age of the first infection was approximately 9 months and the median was 8 months, with significant heterogeneity by the community and an enhanced risk for children born between October and December. The young age of the first infection with skin sores and scabies reflects the high disease burden in these communities.

UK guidelines recommend routine HIV testing in high prevalence emergency departments (ED) and targeted testing for HBV and HCV. The ‘Going Viral’ campaign implemented opt-out blood-borne virus (BBV) testing in adults in a high prevalence ED, to assess seroprevalence, uptake, linkage to care (LTC) rates and staff time taken to achieve LTC. Diagnosis status (new/known/unknown), current engagement in care, and severity of disease was established. LTC was defined as patient informed plus ⩾1 clinic visit. A total of 6211/24 981 ED attendees were tested (uptake 25%); 257 (4.1%) were BBV positive (15 co-infected), 84 (33%) required LTC. 100/147 (68%) HCV positives were viraemic; 44 (30%) required LTC (13 new, 16 disengaged). 26/54 (48%) HBV required LTC (seven new, 11 disengaged). 16/71 (23%) HIV required LTC (10 new, five disengaged). 26/84 (31%) patients requiring LTC had advanced disease (CD4 <350, APRI (AST-to-Platelet Ratio Index) >1, Fibroscan F3/F4 or liver cancer), including five with AIDS-defining conditions and three hepatocellular carcinomas. There were five BBV-related deaths. BBV prevalence was high (4.1%); most were HCV (2.4%). HIV patients were more successfully and quickly LTC than HBV or HCV patients. ED testing was valuable as one-third of those requiring LTC (new, disengaged or unknown status patients) had advanced disease.

Bacillary dysentery continues to be a major health issue in developing countries and ambient temperature is a possible environmental determinant. However, evidence about the risk of bacillary dysentery attributable to ambient temperature under climate change scenarios is scarce. We examined the attributable fraction (AF) of temperature-related bacillary dysentery in urban and rural Hefei, China during 2006–2012 and projected its shifting pattern under climate change scenarios using a distributed lag non-linear model. The risk of bacillary dysentery increased with the temperature rise above a threshold (18·4 °C), and the temperature effects appeared to be acute. The proportion of bacillary dysentery attributable to hot temperatures was 18·74% (95 empirical confidence interval (eCI): 8·36–27·44%). Apparent difference of AF was observed between urban and rural areas, with AF varying from 26·87% (95% eCI 16·21–36·68%) in urban area to −1·90% (95 eCI −25·03 to 16·05%) in rural area. Under the climate change scenarios alone (1–4 °C rise), the AF from extreme hot temperatures (>31·2 °C) would rise greatly accompanied by the relatively stable AF from moderate hot temperatures (18·4–31·2 °C). If climate change proceeds, urban area may be more likely to suffer from rapidly increasing burden of disease from extreme hot temperatures in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

crAssphage is a newly discovered gut bacteriophage. However, its pathogenicity and molecular epidemiology in humans are as yet unclear. In this study, we investigated the association between crAssphage and diarrhoea, as well as the molecular epidemiology of crAssphage in Chinese patients from our hospital. Our results indicated that there were no significant differences in the crAssphage-positive ratio and viral loads in faecal supernatants between adults with diarrhoea and healthy adults. Of infants and children with diarrhoea, 2·8% were found to be crAssphage-positive, including two infants aged <1 month. Markedly, of all confirmed crAssphage-positive strains, 100% had the ORF00039 deletion and 77·8% had low identity of ORF00018 compared to crAssphage (GenBank accession no. NC_024711, designated genotype 1). Thus, crAssphage was not associated with diarrhoea and most strains of crAssphage in Chinese patients (designated genotype 2) were characterized by the ORF00039 deletion and low identity of ORF00018.

An unlinked anonymous study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in emergency department (ED) attendees at a London Hospital. Nine hundred and ninety-seven samples collected over a 12-day period were tested for HCV antibody (Ab) and reactive samples were further tested for HCV RNA. The HCV seroprevalence was 2·6% (26/997) with 1·2% (12/997) HCV RNA positive. A peak HCV RNA-positive prevalence of 4·8% (3/63) was found in males aged 35–44 years, this was compared to 0% (0/136) in males aged <35 years (P = 0·0614) and 1·4% (4/278) in males aged ⩾45 years (P = 0·2415). Assuming the cost for HCV Ab is £6 and HCV RNA is £40 per test, screening ED attendees aged 25–54 years would cost £360 per viraemic infection and identify 82% of those who were HCV RNA positive, yielding the most favourable cost/benefit ratio. HCV screening of ED attendees aged 25–54 years in this population could be an effective way of identifying patients and limit onward transmission.

This study aimed to explore the spatio-temporal patterns, geographical co-distribution, and socio-ecological drivers of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea in Queensland. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the impacts of socio-ecological factors on both childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea at a postal area level. A distinct seasonality of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea was found. Childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea were mainly distributed in the northwest of Queensland. Mount Isa city was the high-risk cluster where childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea co-distributed. Emergency department visits (EDVs) for pneumonia increased by 3% per 10-mm increase in monthly average rainfall in wet seasons. By comparison, a 10-mm increase in monthly average rainfall may cause an increase of 4% in EDVs for diarrhoea. Monthly average temperature was negatively associated with EDVs for childhood diarrhoea in wet seasons. Low socioeconomic index for areas (SEIFA) was associated with high EDVs for childhood pneumonia. Future pneumonia and diarrhoea prevention and control measures in Queensland should focus more on Mount Isa.

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

For over three decades, bone conduction hearing aids have been changing the lives of patients with impaired hearing. The size, appearance and fitting discomfort of early generations of bone conduction hearing aids made them unpopular. The advent of bone-anchored hearing aids in the 1970s offered patients improved sound quality and fitting comfort, due to the application of osseointegration. However, the issue of post-operative peri-abutment pin tract wound infection persisted. The Bonebridge system incorporates the first active bone conduction device, and aims to resolve peri-abutment issues. Implantation of this system in an Asian patient is presented.

Structural instability in economic time series is widely reported in the literature. It is most prevalent in such series as price indices and inflation related data. Many methods have been developed for analysing and modelling structural changes in a univariate time series model. However, most of them assume that the data are generated by one fixed type (linear or non-linear) of the time series processes. This paper proposes a strategy for modelling different segments of an economic time series by different linear or non-linear models. A graphical procedure is suggested for detecting the model change points. The proposed procedure is illustrated by modelling annual United Kingdom price inflation series over the period 1265 to 2005. Stochastic modelling of inflation rates is an important topic to actuaries for dealing with long-term index linked insurance business. The proposed method suggests dividing the U.K. inflation series into four segments for modelling. Inflation projections based on the latest segment of the data are obtained through simulations. To get a better understanding of the impact of structural changes on inflation projections we also perform a forecasting study.

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran's I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.