The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

Fluid motion has two well-known fundamental processes: the vector transverse process characterized by vorticity, and the scalar longitudinal process consisting of a sound mode and an entropy mode, characterized by dilatation and thermodynamic variables. The existing theories for the sound mode involve the multi-variable issue and its associated difficulty of source identification. In this paper, we define the source of sound inside the fluid by the objective causality inherent in dynamic equations relevant to a longitudinal process, which naturally favours the material time-rate operator $D/Dt$ rather than the local time-rate operator $\unicode[STIX]{x2202}/\unicode[STIX]{x2202}t$, and describes the sound mode by inhomogeneous advective wave equations. The sources of sound physical production inside the fluid are then examined at two levels. For the conventional formulation in terms of thermodynamic variables at the first level, we show that the universal kinematic source can be condensed to a scalar invariant of the surface deformation tensor. Further, in the formulation in terms of dilatation at the second level, we find that the sound mode in viscous and heat-conducting flow has sources from rich nonlinear couplings of vorticity, entropy and surface deformation, which cannot be disclosed at the first level. Preliminary numerical demonstration of the theoretical findings is made for two typical compressible flows, i.e. the interaction of two corotating Gaussian vortices and the unsteady type IV shock/shock interaction. The results obtained in this study provide a new theoretical basis for, and physical insight into, understanding various nonlinear longitudinal processes and the interactions therein.

The Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) is an open access telescope dedicated to studying the low-frequency (80–300 MHz) southern sky. Since beginning operations in mid-2013, the MWA has opened a new observational window in the southern hemisphere enabling many science areas. The driving science objectives of the original design were to observe 21 cm radiation from the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR), explore the radio time domain, perform Galactic and extragalactic surveys, and monitor solar, heliospheric, and ionospheric phenomena. All together $60+$ programs recorded 20 000 h producing 146 papers to date. In 2016, the telescope underwent a major upgrade resulting in alternating compact and extended configurations. Other upgrades, including digital back-ends and a rapid-response triggering system, have been developed since the original array was commissioned. In this paper, we review the major results from the prior operation of the MWA and then discuss the new science paths enabled by the improved capabilities. We group these science opportunities by the four original science themes but also include ideas for directions outside these categories.

Precise bone cut is fundamental in total knee arthroplasty. However, notching of anterior femoral is not uncommon in clinical practice. Reviewing the article, notching and its complication may reach up to 30% and 2.5%, and there is scanty study of notching on the femoral strength. We therefore conduct the finite element analysis to elucidate the effect of notching on femoral mechanical strength. The computerized tomography images were used as the basis to develop the knee model, which was assumed mainly to consist of cortical and cancellous bones. For the implant joint, Zimmer data was considered partly as the basis to develop the model. This study investigated the femoral improper cut effect on the surgery with a static standing condition. The results show that the anterior femoral cut should be undercut 2 mm to overcut 1 mm during the surgery, in order to prevent bone materials from yielding. The exposure of the cancellous bone may cause bone materials to yield when the femur overcut was 2 mm; the cancellous bone may load too much and result in a fracture when the undercut was 3 mm. The effect of undercut, which was rarely discussed, was particularly addressed in our study. Precise femoral cut is crucial for the longevity of total knee arthroplasty.

Monolithic large-aperture diffraction grating tiling is desired to increase the output capability of multi-kilojoule petawatt laser facilities. However, the wavefront errors of input pulse and gratings will degrade the focal spot quality and the compressibility of the output pulse. In this work, the effects of wavefront error of input pulse, deformation and wave aberration of the grating for the large-aperture tiled-grating compressor are investigated theoretically. A series of numerical simulations are presented to discuss the changing trends of focal spot energy caused by wavefront error of input pulse and obtain the error tolerance for specific goals. The influences of coating stress and the wave aberration of holographic exposure gratings on the diffraction wavefront are also discussed. Some advice is proposed for improving the performance of large-aperture tiled-grating. This work paves the way for the design of practical large-aperture tiled-grating compressor for ultrahigh intensity laser facilities in the future.

Bacillary dysentery continues to be a major health issue in developing countries and ambient temperature is a possible environmental determinant. However, evidence about the risk of bacillary dysentery attributable to ambient temperature under climate change scenarios is scarce. We examined the attributable fraction (AF) of temperature-related bacillary dysentery in urban and rural Hefei, China during 2006–2012 and projected its shifting pattern under climate change scenarios using a distributed lag non-linear model. The risk of bacillary dysentery increased with the temperature rise above a threshold (18·4 °C), and the temperature effects appeared to be acute. The proportion of bacillary dysentery attributable to hot temperatures was 18·74% (95 empirical confidence interval (eCI): 8·36–27·44%). Apparent difference of AF was observed between urban and rural areas, with AF varying from 26·87% (95% eCI 16·21–36·68%) in urban area to −1·90% (95 eCI −25·03 to 16·05%) in rural area. Under the climate change scenarios alone (1–4 °C rise), the AF from extreme hot temperatures (>31·2 °C) would rise greatly accompanied by the relatively stable AF from moderate hot temperatures (18·4–31·2 °C). If climate change proceeds, urban area may be more likely to suffer from rapidly increasing burden of disease from extreme hot temperatures in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

We studied the evolution, genotypes, and the molecular clock of dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1), between 2001 and 2014 in Guangzhou, China. The analysis of the envelope (E) gene sequences of 67 DENV-1 strains isolated in Guangzhou, together with 58 representative sequences downloaded from NCBI, have shown shifts in viral genotypes. The genotype changed several times, from genotype I to IV in 2002, from IV to I in 2005, and from I to V in 2014. These genotype shifts may be the cause of DENV outbreaks. The diversity of genotypes and clades demonstrates a high risk of future outbreaks in Guangzhou. The mean rate of virus nucleotide substitution in Guangzhou was determined to be 7·77 × 10−4 per site per year, which represents a medium substitution rate compared to two other countries. Our research can point to different ancestors of the isolated strains, which may further reveal the different origins and transmission of DENV-1 strains in Guangzhou.

We studied neuroinflammation in individuals with late-life, depression, as a risk factor for dementia, using [11C]PK11195 positron emission tomography (PET). Five older participants with major depression and 13 controls underwent PET and multimodal 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), with blood taken to measure C-reactive protein (CRP). We found significantly higher CRP levels in those with late-life depression and raised [11C]PK11195 binding compared with controls in brain regions associated with depression, including subgenual anterior cingulate cortex, and significant hippocampal subfield atrophy in cornu ammonis 1 and subiculum. Our findings suggest neuroinflammation requires further investigation in late-life depression, both as a possible aetiological factor and a potential therapeutic target.

We report our systematic development of a general and exact theory for diagnosis of total force and moment exerted on a generic body moving and deforming in a calorically perfect gas. The total force and moment consist of a longitudinal part (L-force) due to compressibility and irreversible thermodynamics, and a transverse part (T-force) due to shearing. The latter exists in incompressible flow but is now modulated by the former. The theory represents a full extension of a unified incompressible diagnosis theory of the same type developed by J. Z. Wu and coworkers to compressible flow, with Mach number ranging from low-subsonic to moderate-supersonic flows. Combined with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation, the theory permits quantitative identification of various complex flow structures and processes responsible for the forces, and thereby enables rational optimal configuration design and flow control. The theory is confirmed by a numerical simulation of circular-cylinder flow in the range of free-stream Mach number $\def \xmlpi #1{}\def \mathsfbi #1{\boldsymbol {\mathsf {#1}}}\let \le =\leqslant \let \leq =\leqslant \let \ge =\geqslant \let \geq =\geqslant \def \Pr {\mathit {Pr}}\def \Fr {\mathit {Fr}}\def \Rey {\mathit {Re}}M_{\infty }$ between 0.2 and 2.0. The L-drag and T-drag of the cylinder vary with $M_{\infty }$ in different ways, the underlying physical mechanisms of which are analysed. Moreover, each L-force and T-force integrand contains a universal factor of local Mach number $M$. Our preliminary tests suggest that the possibility of finding new similarity rules for each force constituent could be quite promising.

Silylated kaolinites were synthesized at 80°C without the use of inert gas protection. The method presented started with mechanical grinding of kaolinite, followed by grafting with 3- aminopropyltriethoxysilane (APTES). The mechanical grinding treatment destroyed the ordered sheets of kaolinite, formed fine fragments and generated broken bonds (undercoordinated metal ions). These broken bonds served as new sites for the condensation with APTES. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) confirmed the existence of −CH2 from APTES. 29Si cross-polarization magic-angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (29Si CP/MAS NMR) showed that the principal bonding mechanism between APTES and kaolinite fitted a tridentate silylation model (T3) with a chemical shift at −66.7 ppm. The silane loadings of the silylated samples were estimated from the mass loss obtained by TG-DTG curves. The results showed that the 6-hour ground kaolinite could be grafted with the most APTES (7.0%) using cyclohexane as solvent. The loaded amount of APTES in the silylated samples obtained in different solvents decreased in the order as: nonpolar solvent > polar solvent with low dielectric constant (toluene) > polar solvent with high dielectric constant (ethanol).

Extended abstract of a paper presented at Microscopy and Microanalysis 2013 in Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, August 4 – August 8, 2013.

TeV gamma ray emissions have been detected at the directions of supernova remnants (SNRs) W51C and Tycho SNR. We analyze the Hi absorption spectra towards W51C, Tycho SNR and their nearby compact sources. We conclude that W51C is at a distance of about 4.3 kpc and Tycho SNR has a distance of 2.5 ~ 3.0 kpc. Our study detects high-velocity Hi clouds which coincide with star formation region W51B, but finds that the clouds are behind W51B which argues against previous claims that W51C has shocked the high velocity Hi clouds. We argue that Tycho SNR is naked Ia SNR (lack of evidence of interacting with adjacent neutral and molecular cloud). This gives two examples that the very high gamma ray emission from SNRs does not likely originate from SNR-cloud interaction.

We briefly summarize the method of kinematic distances of Galactic radio objects and discuss the ambiguity in this method. Both Hi absorption and Hi self-absorption are effective tools to solve the kinematic distance ambiguity. We build the 21 cm Hi absorption spectrum of the complex G35.6-0.5, and suggest SNR G35.6-0.4, one component of the complex, is located at the near side distance of about 3.6 kpc.