To develop and validate a risk prediction model that could identify patients at high risk for Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) before they develop disease.

Retrospective cohort study in a tertiary care medical center.

Patients admitted to the hospital for at least 48 hours during the calendar year 2003.

Data were collected electronically from the hospital's Medical Informatics database and analyzed with logistic regression to determine variables that best predicted patients' risk for development of CDI. Model discrimination and calibration were calculated. The model was bootstrapped 500 times to validate the predictive accuracy. A receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated to evaluate potential risk cutoffs.

A total of 35,350 admitted patients, including 329 with CDI, were studied. Variables in the risk prediction model were age, CDI pressure, times admitted to hospital in the previous 60 days, modified Acute Physiology Score, days of treatment with high-risk antibiotics, whether albumin level was low, admission to an intensive care unit, and receipt of laxatives, gastric acid suppressors, or antimotility drugs. The calibration and discrimination of the model were very good to excellent (C index, 0.88; Brier score, 0.009).

The CDI risk prediction model performed well. Further study is needed to determine whether it could be used in a clinical setting to prevent CDI-associated outcomes and reduce costs.

Healthcare-associated infections are likely to be caused by drug-resistant and possibly mixed organisms and to be treated with inappropriate antibiotics. Because prompt appropriate treatment is associated with better outcomes, we studied the epidemiology of healthcare-associated complicated skin and skin-structure infections (cSSSIs).

Persons hospitalized with cSSSI and a positive culture result.

We conducted a single-center retrospective cohort study from April 2006 through December 2007. We differentiated healthcare-associated from community-acquired cSSSIs by at least 1 of the following risk factors: (1) recent hospitalization, (2) recent antibiotics, (3) hemodialysis, and (4) transfer from a nursing home. Inappropriate treatment was defined as no antimicrobial therapy with activity against the offending pathogen(s) within 24 hours after collection of a culture specimen. Mixed infections were those caused by both a gram-positive and a gram-negative organism.

Among 717 hospitalized patients with cSSSI, 527 (73.5%) had healthcare-associated cSSSI. Gram-negative organisms were more common (relative risk, 1.24 [95% confidence interval, 1.14–1.35) and inappropriate treatment trended toward being more common (odds ratio, 1.29 [95% confidence interval, 0.85–1.95]) in healthcare-associated cSSSI than in community-acquired cSSSI. Mixed cSSSIs occurred in 10.6% of patients with healthcare-associated cSSSI and 6.3% of those with community-acquired cSSSI (P = .082) and were more likely to be treated inappropriately than to be nonmixed infections (odds ratio, 2.42 [95% confidence interval, 1.43–4.10]). Both median length of hospital stay (6.2 vs 2.9 days; P < .001) and mortality rate (6.6% vs 1.1%; P = .003) were significantly higher for healthcare-associated cSSSI than community-acquired cSSSI.

Healthcare-associated cSSSIs are common and are likely to be caused by gram-negative organisms. Mixed infections carry a <2-fold greater risk of inappropriate treatment. Healthcare-associated cSSSIs are associated with increased mortality and prolonged length of hospital stay, compared with community-acquired cSSSIs.