Auctions, normally considered as devices facilitating trade, also provide a way to probe mechanisms governing one’s valuation of some good or action. One of the most intriguing phenomena in auction behavior is the winner’s curse — the strong tendency of participants to bid more than rational agent theory prescribes, often at a significant loss. The prevailing explanation suggests that humans have limited cognitive abilities that make estimating the correct bid difficult, if not impossible. Using a series of auction structures, we found that bidding approaches rational agent predictions when participants compete against a computer. However, the winner’s curse appears when participants compete against other humans, even when cognitive demands for the correct bidding strategy are removed. These results suggest the humans assign significant future value to victories over human but not over computer opponents even though such victories may incur immediate losses, and that this valuation anomaly is the origin of apparently irrational behavior.

The rubella disease burden in Zambia may be under-estimated. Using models, we describe the transmission dynamics, determine the incidence estimates and assess the level of underestimation of the real burden of rubella infection in Zambia during the pre-vaccination period 2005–2016. This study used both the deterministic compartmental model and likelihood-based method using a Bayesian framework to describe the epidemiology of rubella. A total of 1313 cases of rubella were confirmed with the highest annual number of 255 new cases recorded in 2008. However, 2014 recorded the highest monthly median positivity rate of 9.0%. The observed median rubella cases were 5.5. There was a seasonal pattern in the occurrence of laboratory-confirmed rubella, with higher test positivity rates of rubella infection usually recorded in the months of September, October and November. The modelled monthly median incidence of rubella infection among the general population was 76 and 20 among pregnant women. The incidence of rubella among the non-pregnant women was 44. The average effective reproductive number (Rt) between 2005 and 2016 was estimated as 1.2 with the peak of infection occurring in 2016. The measles surveillance system underestimates the observed burden of rubella. A mass vaccination campaign conducted between January and July is recommended.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: To assemble publicly-available, proprietary, and geocoded datasets about social, environmental, behavioral, and psychological exposures experienced by children with asthma, to provide a technical overview of data aggregation, management, and integration processes utilized, and to build predictive models using sociome and clinical data. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Publicly-available data involving census information, crime, green space, building permits, vacant and abandoned buildings, traffic (City of Chicago data portal), pollution and weather (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and noise (Array of Things project) were assembled. We placed a local instance of the Pelias geocoder on the UChicago Center for Research Informatics HIPAA-compliant infrastructure. The UChicago Clinical Research Data Warehouse will be leveraged to obtain clinical information for children diagnosed with asthma at UChicago Medicine between 2007 and 2021. The address of each child will be subjected to geocoding, and this information will be aligned with imported sociome data. A model will be built to account for each sociome elements contribution to asthma outcomes. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Here we are creating sustainable and scalable ways for collecting, standardizing, and sharing real-world sociome data, simultaneously linking those data back to patient information. With this work, we aim to demonstrate feasibility of a data-commons-as-a-service for clinical and sociome data and to provide technical specifications and descriptions of processes employed. Creating generalizable and scalable infrastructure to support research of social and environmental impacts on clinical outcomes is critical, and our work will provide a framework to be used in other disease states. Further, this infrastructure will facilitate the application of advanced analytical tools and visualization platforms to accelerate the study of diseases and lead to new insights into factors influencing outcomes. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Beyond focusing on and treating biological mechanisms of disease, advancing health also requires addressing adverse consequences of sociome factors on clinical outcomes. We describe an innovative process to comprehensively codify and quantify such information in a way suitable for large scale co-analysis with biological and clinical data.

The ancient city of Gabii—an Italian polity of the first millennium BC and a peer to early Rome—has often been presented as an example of urban decline, a counterpoint to Rome's rise from a collection of hilltop huts to a Mediterranean hegemon. Here the authors draw on the results from recent excavations at Gabii that challenge such simplistic models of urban history. Diachronic evidence documenting activity at the site over the course of 1400 years highlights shifting values and rhythms materialised in the maintenance, transformation and abandonment of different urban components. This complex picture of adaptation and resilience provides a model of ancient urbanism that calls into question outdated narratives of urban success and failure.

We consider nonzero-sum games where multiple players control the drift of a process, and their payoffs depend on its ergodic behaviour. We establish their connection with systems of ergodic backward stochastic differential equations, and prove the existence of a Nash equilibrium under generalised Isaac's conditions. We also study the case of interacting players of different type.

The terminal lake systems of central Australia are key sites for the reconstruction of late Quaternary paleoenvironments. Paleoshoreline deposits around these lakes reflect repeated lake filling episodes and such landforms have enabled the establishment of a luminescence-based chronology for filling events in previous studies. Here we present a detailed documentation of the morphology and chemistry of soils developed in four well-preserved beach ridges of late Pleistocene and mid-to-late Holocene age at Lake Callabonna to assess changes in dominant pedogenic processes. All soil profiles contain evidence for the incorporation of eolian-derived material, likely via the formation of desert pavements and vesicular horizons, and limited illuviation due to generally shallow wetting fronts. Even though soil properties in the four studied profiles also provide examples of parent material influence or site-specific processes related to the geomorphic setting, there is an overall trend of increasing enrichment of eolian-derived material since at least ~ 33 ka. Compared to the Holocene profiles, the derived average accumulation rates for the late Pleistocene profiles are significantly lower and may suggest that soils record important regional changes in paleoenvironments and dust dynamics related to shifts in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies.

Using backward stochastic difference equations (BSDEs), this paper studies dynamic convex risk measures for risky positions in a simple discrete-time, binomial tree model. A relationship between BSDEs and dynamic convex risk measures is developed using nonlinear expectations. The time consistency of dynamic convex risk measures is discussed in the binomial tree framework. A relationship between prices and risks is also established. Two particular cases of dynamic convex risk measures, namely risk measures with stochastic distortions and entropic risk measures, and their mathematical properties are discussed.

We consider backward stochastic differential equations in a setting where noise is generated by a countable state, continuous time Markov chain, and the terminal value is prescribed at a stopping time. We show that, given sufficient integrability of the stopping time and a growth bound on the terminal value and BSDE driver, these equations admit unique solutions satisfying the same growth bound (up to multiplication by a constant). This holds without assuming that the driver is monotone in y, that is, our results do not require that the terminal value be discounted at some uniform rate. We show that the conditions are satisfied for hitting times of states of the chain, and hence present some novel applications of the theory of these BSDEs.

A useful result when dealing with backward stochastic differential equations is the comparison theorem of Peng (1992). When the equations are not based on Brownian motion, the comparison theorem no longer holds in general. In this paper we present a condition for a comparison theorem to hold for backward stochastic differential equations based on arbitrary martingales. This theorem applies to both vector and scalar situations. Applications to the theory of nonlinear expectations are also explored.