Effective management of uncertainty can lead to better, more informed decisions. However, many decision makers and their advisers do not always face up to uncertainty, in part because there is little constructive guidance or tools available to help. This paper outlines six Uncertainty Principles to manage uncertainty.

• Face up to uncertainty

• Deconstruct the problem

• Don’t be fooled (un/intentional biases)

• Models can be helpful, but also dangerous

• Think about adaptability and resilience

• Bring people with you

In recent years, the discovery of massive quasars at $z\sim7$ has provided a striking challenge to our understanding of the origin and growth of supermassive black holes in the early Universe. Mounting observational and theoretical evidence indicates the viability of massive seeds, formed by the collapse of supermassive stars, as a progenitor model for such early, massive accreting black holes. Although considerable progress has been made in our theoretical understanding, many questions remain regarding how (and how often) such objects may form, how they live and die, and how next generation observatories may yield new insight into the origin of these primordial titans. This review focusses on our present understanding of this remarkable formation scenario, based on the discussions held at the Monash Prato Centre from November 20 to 24, 2017, during the workshop ‘Titans of the Early Universe: The Origin of the First Supermassive Black Holes’.

Seasonal influenza can cause significant morbidity in pregnant women. Much of the existing epidemiological evidence on influenza during pregnancy has focused on the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. To measure the epidemiological characteristics of seasonal influenza infection among pregnant women and the impact on infant health, a cohort of 86 779 pregnancies during the influenza season (2012–2014) was established using probabilistic linkage of notifiable infectious disease, hospital admission, and birth information. A total of 192 laboratory-confirmed influenza infections were identified (2·2 per 1000 pregnancies), 14·6% of which were admitted to hospital. There was no difference in the proportion of infections admitted to hospital by trimester or subtype of infection. Influenza B infections were more likely to occur in second trimester compared with influenza A/H3N2 and influenza A/H1N1 infections (41·3%, 23·6%, and 33·3%, respectively), and on average, infants born to women with influenza B during pregnancy had 4·0% (95% CI 0·3–7·6%) lower birth weight relative to optimal compared with infants born to uninfected women (P = 0·03). Results from this linked population-based study suggest that there are differences in maternal infection by virus type and subtype and support the provision of seasonal influenza vaccine to pregnant women.

Data were pooled from three Australian sentinel general practice influenza surveillance networks to estimate Australia-wide influenza vaccine coverage and effectiveness against community presentations for laboratory-confirmed influenza for the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons. Patients presenting with influenza-like illness at participating GP practices were swabbed and tested for influenza. The vaccination odds of patients testing positive were compared with patients testing negative to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) by logistic regression, adjusting for age group, week of presentation and network. Pooling of data across Australia increased the sample size for estimation from a minimum of 684 to 3,683 in 2012, from 314 to 2,042 in 2013 and from 497 to 3,074 in 2014. Overall VE was 38% [95% confidence interval (CI) 24–49] in 2012, 60% (95% CI 45–70) in 2013 and 44% (95% CI 31–55) in 2014. For A(H1N1)pdm09 VE was 54% (95% CI–28 to 83) in 2012, 59% (95% CI 33–74) in 2013 and 55% (95% CI 39–67) in 2014. For A(H3N2), VE was 30% (95% CI 14–44) in 2012, 67% (95% CI 39–82) in 2013 and 26% (95% CI 1–45) in 2014. For influenza B, VE was stable across years at 56% (95% CI 37–70) in 2012, 57% (95% CI 30–73) in 2013 and 54% (95% CI 21–73) in 2014. Overall VE against influenza was low in 2012 and 2014 when A(H3N2) was the dominant strain and the vaccine was poorly matched. In contrast, overall VE was higher in 2013 when A(H1N1)pdm09 dominated and the vaccine was a better match. Pooling data can increase the sample available and enable more precise subtype- and age group-specific estimates, but limitations remain.

We present the results of two 2.3 μm near-infrared (NIR) radial velocity (RV) surveys to detect exoplanets around 36 nearby and young M dwarfs. We use the CSHELL spectrograph (R ~ 46,000) at the NASA InfraRed Telescope Facility (IRTF), combined with an isotopic methane absorption gas cell for common optical path relative wavelength calibration. We have developed a sophisticated RV forward modeling code that accounts for fringing and other instrumental artifacts present in the spectra. With a spectral grasp of only 5 nm, we are able to reach long-term radial velocity dispersions of ~20–30 m s−1 on our survey targets.

The direct collapse model of supermassive black hole seed formation requires that the gas cools predominantly via atomic hydrogen. To this end we simulate the effect of an anisotropic radiation source on the collapse of a halo at high redshift. The radiation source is placed at a distance of 3 kpc (physical) from the collapsing object and is set to emit monochromatically in the center of the Lyman-Werner (LW) band. The LW radiation emitted from the high redshift source is followed self-consistently using ray tracing techniques. Due to self-shielding, a small amount of H2 is able to form at the very center of the collapsing halo even under very strong LW radiation. Furthermore, we find that a radiation source, emitting < 1054 (∼103 J21) photons per second is required to cause the collapse of a clump of M ∼ 105 M⊙. The resulting accretion rate onto the collapsing object is ∼ 0.25 M⊙ yr−1. Our results display significant differences, compared to the isotropic radiation field case, in terms of H2 fraction at an equivalent radius. These differences will significantly effect the dynamics of the collapse. With the inclusion of a strong anisotropic radiation source, the final mass of the collapsing object is found to be M ∼ 105 M⊙. This is consistent with predictions for the formation of a supermassive star or quasi-star leading to a supermassive black hole.

Extended abstract of a paper presented at Microscopy and Microanalysis 2011 in Nashville, Tennessee, USA, August 7–August 11, 2011.

The Health Protection Agency/QSurveillance national surveillance system utilizes QSurveillance® a recently developed general practitioner database covering over 23 million people in the UK. We describe the spread of the first wave of the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic 2009 using data on consultations for influenza-like illness (ILI), respiratory illness and prescribing for influenza from 3400 contributing general practices. Daily data, provided from 27 April 2009 to 28 January 2010, were used to give a timely overview for those managing the pandemic nationally and locally. The first wave particularly affected London and the West Midlands with a peak in ILI in week 30. Children aged between 1 and 15 years had consistently high consultation rates for ILI. Daily ILI rates were used for modelling national weekly case estimates. The system enabled the ‘real-time’ monitoring of the pandemic to a small geographical area, linking morbidity and prescribing for influenza and other respiratory illnesses.

Lactation alters maternal metabolism and increases food intake in rats to support milk production. Pancreatic lipase (PL) is primarily responsible for fat digestion in adults and is regulated by dietary fat. The present research determined the regulation of PL by lactation and dietary fat. In Expt 1, eighteen Sprague–Dawley dams and twelve age-matched virgins (controls) were fed a low-fat diet (LF; 11 % energy as safflower oil) for 7–63 d. At postpartum (day 0), peak lactation (day 15) and post-lactation (day 56) and after 7 d in virgins, the pancreas was removed for mRNA and enzyme analyses. In Expt 2, thirty-six Sprague–Dawley dams were fed LF until day 9 postpartum when dams were divided into three groups of twelve; one continued to be fed LF, one was fed a moderate-fat diet (MF; 40 % energy as safflower oil); and one was fed a high-fat diet (HF; 67 % energy as safflower oil) diet. At peak lactation (day 15) and post-lactation (day 56), the pancreas was removed for mRNA and enzyme analyses. Expt 1 revealed that lactation and post-lactation significantly (P<0·001) decreased PL mRNA (67 % and 76 %, respectively), but only post-lactation decreased PL activity. Increased dietary fat in Expt 2 significantly increased PL mRNA (LF<MF<HF, P<0·001) and PL activity (LF<MF=HF, P<0·02) in both lactation and post-lactation. In summary, lactation and post-lactation decreased PL mRNA significantly even though dietary fat still regulated PL activity and mRNA in lactation and post-lactation.

Objectives: This study aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness ofinfluenza vaccination in people 65–74 years of age in the absence of comorbidity.

Experiments to demonstrate the effects of various beam-smoothing techniques have been performed on the 60-beam, 30-kJ UV OMEGA laser system. These include direct measurements of the effect beam-smoothing techniques have on laser beam nonuniformity and on both planar and spherical targets. Demonstrated techniques include polarization smoothing and “dual-tripler” third-harmonic generation required for future broad bandwidth (∼1 THz) smoothing by spectral dispersion (SSD). The effects of improvements in single-beam uniformity are clearly seen in the target-physics experiments, which also show the effect of the laser pulse shape on the efficacy of SSD smoothing. Saturation of the Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) growth of the broad-bandwidth features, in agreement with the Haan model (Haan, 1989), produced by laser imprinting has also been observed.

University research in the UK with high power lasers is carried out at the SERC's Central Laser Facility with a multi-terawatt neodymium glass laser, VULCAN, and a developmental KrF laser, SPRITE. These systems are briefly described together with the design of a new KrF laser to supersede VULCAN. The new laser design, SUPERSPRITE, is based on optical and Raman multiplexing which is being developed with the present SPRITE system. The specification of SUPERSPRITE is for 3.5 kJ in 1 ns and a peak power of 300 TW in short pulses. The new technology is seen as highly cost effective in relation to neodymium glass lasers. A resume of the development of XUV lasers in the UK in collaboration with laboratories overseas is given. The work is based on laser action through recombination in highly ionized ions and recent progress includes collaborative experiments on the GEKKO XII facility in Japan which have demonstrated laser action at the shortest wavelength to date at 45 A in Mg XII. The physics of energy transport in short pulses is fundamental to the extrapolation of recombination lasers to shorter wavelengths and is being studied from a more basic standpoint using both the VULCAN and SPRITE facilities. Some details of this work are given.

Two patients developed an extrapyramidal syndrome after therapy with lithium carbonate. Although the clinical features of this syndrome were indistinguishable from those of drug-induced parkinsonism, it was made worse by the anti-parkinsonian drug, orphenadrine. These findings were reproduced later under laboratory conditions when extrapyramidal symptoms and physiological tremor were recorded before and after challenge doses of orphenadrine. This unwanted effect of lithium carbonate may be explained by selective blockade of dopamine receptors.