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Wind derivatives are financial instruments designed to mitigate losses caused by adverse wind conditions. With the rapid growth of wind power capacity due to efforts to reduce carbon emissions, the demand for wind derivatives to manage uncertainty in wind power production is expected to increase. However, existing wind derivative literature often assumes normally distributed wind speed, despite the presence of skewness and leptokurtosis in historical wind speed data. This paper investigates how the misspecification of wind speed models affects wind derivative prices and proposes the use of the generalized hyperbolic distribution to account for non-normality. The study develops risk-neutral approaches for pricing wind derivatives using the conditional Esscher transform, which can accommodate stochastic processes with any distribution, provided the moment-generating function exists. The analysis demonstrates that model risk varies depending on the choice of the underlying index and the derivative’s payoff structure. Therefore, caution should be exercised when choosing wind speed models. Essentially, model risk cannot be ignored in pricing wind speed derivatives.
Breast cancer is a high-risk disease with a high mortality rate among women. Chemotherapy plays an important role in the treatment of breast cancer. However, chemotherapy eventually results in tumours that are resistant to drugs. In recent years, many studies have revealed that the activation of Wnt/β-catenin signalling is crucial for the emergence and growth of breast tumours as well as the development of drug resistance. Additionally, drugs that target this pathway can reverse drug resistance in breast cancer therapy. Traditional Chinese medicine has the properties of multi-target and tenderness. Therefore, integrating traditional Chinese medicine and modern medicine into chemotherapy provides a new strategy for reversing the drug resistance of breast tumours. This paper mainly reviews the possible mechanism of Wnt/β-catenin in promoting the process of breast tumour drug resistance, and the progress of alkaloids extracted from traditional Chinese medicine in the targeting of this pathway in order to reverse the drug resistance of breast cancer.
Se deficiency causes impaired growth of fish skeletal muscle due to the retarded hypertrophy of muscle fibres. However, the inner mechanisms remain unclear. According to our previous researches, we infer this phenomenon is associated with Se deficiency-induced high concentration of reactive oxygen species (ROS), which could suppress the target of rapamycin complex 1 (TORC1) pathway-mediated protein synthesis by inhibiting protein kinase B (Akt), an upstream protein of TORC1. To test this hypothesis, juvenile zebrafish (45 d post-fertilisation) were fed a basal Se-adequate diet or a basal Se-deficient diet or them supplemented with an antioxidant (DL-α-tocopherol acetate, designed as VE) or a TOR activator (MHY1485) for 30 d. Zebrafish fed Se-deficient diets exhibited a clear Se-deficient status in skeletal muscle, which was not influenced by dietary VE and MHY1485. Se deficiency significantly elevated ROS concentrations, inhibited Akt activity and TORC1 pathway, suppressed protein synthesis in skeletal muscle, and impaired hypertrophy of skeletal muscle fibres. However, these negative effects of Se deficiency were partly (except that on ROS concentration) alleviated by dietary MHY1485 and completely alleviated by dietary VE. These data strongly support our speculation that Se deficiency-induced high concentration of ROS exerts a clear inhibiting effect on TORC1 pathway-mediated protein synthesis by regulating Akt activity, thereby restricting the hypertrophy of skeletal muscle fibres in fish. Our findings provide a mechanistic explanation for Se deficiency-caused retardation of fish skeletal muscle growth, contributing to a better understanding of the nutritional necessity and regulatory mechanisms of Se in fish muscle physiology.
According to the public data collected from the Health Commission of Gansu Province, China, regarding the COVID-19 pandemic during the summer epidemic cycle in 2022, the epidemiological analysis showed that the pandemic spread stability and the symptom rate (the number of confirmed cases divided by the sum of the number of asymptomatic cases and the number of confirmed cases) of COVID-19 were different among 3 main epidemic regions, Lanzhou, Linxia, and Gannan; both the symptom rate and the daily instantaneous symptom rate (daily number of confirmed cases divided by the sum of daily number of asymptomatic cases and daily number of confirmed cases) in Lanzhou were substantially higher than those in Linxia and Gannan. The difference in the food sources due to the high difference of the population ethnic composition in the 3 regions was probably the main driver for the difference of the symptom rates among the 3 regions. This work provides potential values for prevention and control of COVID-19 in different regions.
The G protein-coupled receptors (GPCR) sensing nutritional signals (amino acids, fatty acids, glucose, etc.) are not fully understood. In this research, we used transcriptome sequencing to analyse differentially expressed genes (DEG) in mouse mammary gland tissues at puberty, lactation and involution stages, in which eight GPCR were selected out and verified by qRT-PCR assay. It was further identified the role of GPR110-mediating nutrients including palmitic acid (PA) and methionine (Met) to improve milk synthesis using mouse mammary epithelial cell line HC11. PA but not Met affected GPR110 expression in a dose-dependent manner. GPR110 knockdown decreased milk protein and fat synthesis and cell proliferation and blocked the stimulation of PA on mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR) phosphorylation and sterol-regulatory element binding protein 1c (SREBP-1c) expression. In summary, these experimental results disclose DEG related to lactation and reveal that GPR110 mediates PA to activate the mTOR and SREBP-1c pathways to promote milk protein and fat synthesis.
The grey wolf optimizer (GWO) as a new intelligent optimization algorithm has been successfully applied in many fields because of its simple structure, few adjustment parameters and easy implementation. This paper mainly aims at the defects of GWO in path planning application, such as easily falling into local optimization, poor convergence and poor accuracy, and turn point grey wolf optimization (TPGWO) algorithm is proposed. First, the idea of cross-mutation and roulette is used to increase the initial population of GWO and improve the search range. At the same time, the convergence factor function is improved to become a nonlinear update. In the early stage, the search range is expanded, and in the later stage, the convergence speed is increased, while the parameters in the convergence factor function can be adjusted according to the number of obstacles and the map area to change the turning point of the function to improve the convergence speed and accuracy of the algorithm. The turning times and turning angles of the obtained path are added to the fitness function as penalty values to improve the path accuracy. The optimization test is carried out through 16 test functions, and the test results prove the convergence and robustness of TPGWO algorithm. Finally, the TPGWO algorithm is applied to the path planning of patrol robot for simulation experiments. Compared with the GWO algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization, the simulation results show that the TPGWO algorithm has better convergence, stability and accuracy in the path planning of patrol robot.
This study examines how maximum emotional intelligence (EI) members can contribute to the emergence of team-level organizational citizenship behaviors (OCB). Based on integrating a strategic core role and multilevel theory, we developed and tested a model in which the maximum EI score in teams results in intrateam trust and consequently impacts team OCB and examined whether the indirect effect of maximum EI on team OCB through intrateam trust would be moderated by EI diversity and trust divergence in teams. The results from 129 project teams showed that the relationship of maximum EI with team OCB is mediated by intrateam trust and this relationship is stronger for lower levels of EI diversity and trust divergence than for higher levels of diversity and divergence. The findings advance our understanding of the role of EI in team settings. Our research has important implications for organizations attempting to develop the applied value of EI.
The pursuit of unhealthy behaviors, such as smoking or binge drinking, not only carries various downside risks, but also provides pleasure. A parsimonious model, used in the literature to explain the decision to pursue an unhealthy activity, represents that decision as a tradeoff between risks and benefits. We build on this literature by surveying a rural population in South Africa to elicit the perceived riskiness and the perceived pleasure for various risky activities and to examine how these perceptions relate to the pursuit of four specific unhealthy behaviors: frequent smoking, problem drinking, seatbelt nonuse, and risky sex. We show that perceived pleasure is a significant predictor for three of the behaviors and that perceived riskiness is a significant predictor for two of them. We also show that the correlation between the riskiness rating and behavior is significantly different from the correlation between the pleasure rating and behavior for three of the four behaviors. Finally, we show that the effect of pleasure is significantly greater than the effect of riskiness in determining drinking and risky sex, while the effects of pleasure and riskiness are not different from each other in determining smoking and seatbelt nonuse. We discuss how our findings can be used to inform the design of health promotion strategies.
Many protected areas worldwide have been established to protect the last natural refuges of flagship animal species. However, long-established protected areas do not always match the current distributions of target species under changing environmental conditions. Here we present a case study of the Asian elephant Elephas maximus in Xishuangbanna, south-west China, to evaluate whether the established protected areas match the species’ current distribution and to identify key habitat patches for Asian elephant conservation. Our results show that currently only 24.5% of the predicted Asian elephant distribution in Xishuangbanna is located within Xishuangbanna National Nature Reserve, which was established for elephant conservation. Based on the predicted Asian elephant distribution, we identified the most important habitat patches for elephant conservation in Xishuangbanna. The three most important patches were outside Xishuangbanna National Nature Reserve and together they contained 43.3% of the estimated food resources for Asian elephants in all patches in Xishuangbanna. Thus, we identified a spatial mismatch between immobile protected areas and mobile animals. We recommend the inclusion of the three identified key habitat patches in a new national park currently being planned by the Chinese authorities for the conservation of the Asian elephant.
In this work, theoretical modelling, quasi-three-dimensional (quasi-3D) simulations and micromodel experiments are conducted to study spontaneous imbibition with gravity in porous media micromodels. By establishing the force balance governing the spontaneous imbibition process, we develop a theoretical model for predicting the imbibition length against time in a rectangular capillary. The theoretical model is then extended to the prediction of a compact displacement process in a micromodel by using an equivalent width, which is derived by analogising the micromodel to a rectangular capillary. By simulating spontaneous imbibition in a rectangular capillary with various aspect ratios ($\varepsilon$), we show that the application condition of the quasi-3D method is $\varepsilon \leqslant 1/3$. Next, we simulate spontaneous imbibition in micromodels with various geometries and flow conditions. Fingering and compact displacement are identified for varying viscosity ratios and gravitational accelerations. At low (high) viscosity ratio of wetting to non-wetting fluids, an upward (downward) gravity can promote the stability of the wetting front, favouring the transition from fingering to compact displacement. In addition, we find that the depth-oriented interface curvature dominates the capillary effect during the imbibition, and such a mechanism is considered by introducing an equivalent contact angle into the theoretical model. With the help of equivalent width and contact angle, the theoretical model is shown to provide satisfactory prediction of the compact displacement process. Finally, a micromodel experiment is presented to further verify the developed theoretical model and the quasi-3D simulation.
According to Hamilton's rule, matrilineal-biased investment restrains men in matrilineal societies from maximising their inclusive fitness (the ‘matrilineal puzzle'). A recent hypothesis argues that when women breed communally and share household resources, a man should help his sisters' household, rather than his wife's household, as investment to the later but not the former would be diluted by other unrelated members (Wu et al., 2013). According to this hypothesis, a man is less likely to help on his wife's farm when there are more women reproducing in the wife's household, because on average he would be less related to his wife's household. We used a farm-work observational dataset, that we collected in the matrilineal Mosuo in southwest China, to test this hypothesis. As predicted, high levels of communal breeding by women in his wife's households do predict less effort spent by men on their wife's farm, and communal breeding in men's natal households do not affect whether men help on their natal farms. Thus, communal breeding by women dilutes the inclusive fitness benefits men receive from investment to their wife and children, and may drive the evolution of matrilineal-biased investment by men. These results can help solve the ‘matrilineal puzzle'.
The association between dietary Cu intake and mortality risk remains uncertain. We aimed to investigate the relationship of dietary Cu intake with all-cause mortality among Chinese adults. A total of 17 310 participants from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, a national ongoing open cohort of Chinese participants, were included in the analysis. Dietary intake was measured by three consecutive 24-h dietary recalls in combination with a weighing inventory over the same 3 d. The average intakes of the 3-d dietary macronutrients and micronutrients were calculated. The study outcome was all-cause mortality. During a median follow-up of 9·0 years, 1324 (7·6 %) participants died. After adjusting for sex, age, BMI, ever alcohol drinking, ever smoking, education levels, occupations, urban or rural residents, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure and the intakes of fat, protein and carbohydrate, the association between dietary Cu intake and all-cause mortality followed a J-shape (Pfor nonlinearity = 0·047). When dietary Cu intake was assessed as quartiles, compared with those in the first quartile (<1·60 mg/d), the adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 0·87 (95 % CI (0·71, 1·07)), 0·98 (95 % CI (0·79, 1·21)) and 1·49 (95 % CI (1·19, 1·86)), respectively, in participants in the second (1·60–<1·83 mg/d), third (1·83–<2·09 mg/d) and fourth (≥2·09 mg/d) quartiles. A series of subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses showed similar results. Overall, our findings emphasised the importance of maintaining optimal dietary Cu intake levels for prevention of premature death.
N-acetylcysteine (NAC) possesses a strong capability to ameliorate high-fat diet (HFD)-induced non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in mice, but the underlying mechanism is still unknown. Our study aimed to clarify the involvement of long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) in the beneficial effects of NAC on HFD-induced NAFLD. C57BL/6J mice were fed a normal-fat diet (10 % fat), a HFD (45 % fat) or a HFD plus NAC (2 g/l). After 14-week of intervention, NAC rescued the deleterious alterations induced by HFD, including the changes in body and liver weights, hepatic TAG, plasma alanine aminotransferase, plasma aspartate transaminase and liver histomorphology (haematoxylin and eosin and Oil red O staining). Through whole-transcriptome sequencing, 52 167 (50 758 known and 1409 novel) hepatic lncRNA were detected. Our cross-comparison data revealed the expression of 175 lncRNA was changed by HFD but reversed by NAC. Five of those lncRNA, lncRNA-NONMMUT148902·1 (NO_902·1), lncRNA-XR_001781798·1 (XR_798·1), lncRNA-NONMMUT141720·1 (NO_720·1), lncRNA-XR_869907·1 (XR_907·1), and lncRNA-ENSMUST00000132181 (EN_181), were selected based on an absolute log2 fold change value of greater than 4, P-value < 0·01 and P-adjusted value < 0·01. Further qRT-PCR analysis showed the levels of lncRNA-NO_902·1, lncRNA-XR_798·1, and lncRNA-EN_181 were decreased by HFD but restored by NAC, consistent with the RNA sequencing. Finally, we constructed a ceRNA network containing lncRNA-EN_181, 3 miRNA, and 13 mRNA, which was associated with the NAC-ameliorated NAFLD. Overall, lncRNA-EN_181 might be a potential target in NAC-ameliorated NAFLD. This finding enhanced our understanding of the biological mechanisms underlying the beneficial role of NAC.
The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of different levels of seminal plasma (SP) on boar sperm quality, antioxidant capacity and bacterial concentrations during liquid storage at 17°C. Boar sperm was diluted with Beltsville Thawing Solution (BTS) consisting of 0, 25, 50 and 75% (v/v) of SP. Total motility, progressive motility and dynamic parameters were assessed by the computer assisted sperm analysis (CASA) system. Acrosome and plasma membrane integrity were measured by FITC-PNA/DAPI and SYBR-14/PI staining, respectively. In addition, total antioxidant capacity (T-AOC), malondialdehyde (MDA) content, and reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels were detected using commercial assay kits. Bacterial concentrations were assessed by turbidimetric assay. Our results showed that 25% SP markedly improved total motility, progressive motility, sperm dynamic parameters, acrosome integrity compared with 0, 50 and 75% SP (P < 0.05). In addition, 25% SP significantly increased T-AOC but decreased MDA content and ROS levels compared with 0, and 75% SP (P < 0.05). Moreover, 25% SP significantly decreased the bacterial concentrations in extended semen compared with 50% and 75% SP, however, which was higher than with 0% SP (P < 0.05). These results suggest that 25% SP can promote boar sperm quality through enhancing its antioxidant capacity during liquid storage.
There has been a growing interest among pension plan sponsors in envisioning how the mortality experience of their active and deferred members may turn out to be if a pandemic similar to the COVID-19 occurs in the future. To address their needs, we propose in this paper a stochastic model for simulating future mortality scenarios with COVID-alike effects. The proposed model encompasses three parameter levels. The first level includes parameters that capture the long-term pattern of mortality, whereas the second level contains parameters that gauge the excess age-specific mortality due to COVID-19. Parameters in the first and second levels are estimated using penalised quasi-likelihood maximisation method which was proposed for generalised linear mixed models. Finally, the third level includes parameters that draw on expert opinions concerning, for example, how likely a COVID-alike pandemic will occur in the future. We illustrate our proposed model with data from the United States and a range of expert opinions.
This study is performed to figure out how the presence of diabetes affects the infection, progression and prognosis of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and the effective therapy that can treat the diabetes-complicated patients with COVID-19. A multicentre study was performed in four hospitals. COVID-19 patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) or hyperglycaemia were compared with those without these conditions and matched by propensity score matching for their clinical progress and outcome. Totally, 2444 confirmed COVID-19 patients were recruited, from whom 336 had DM. Compared to 1344 non-DM patients with age and sex matched, DM-COVID-19 patients had significantly higher rates of intensive care unit entrance (12.43% vs. 6.58%, P = 0.014), kidney failure (9.20% vs. 4.05%, P = 0.027) and mortality (25.00% vs. 18.15%, P < 0.001). Age and sex-stratified comparison revealed increased susceptibility to COVID-19 only from females with DM. For either non-DM or DM group, hyperglycaemia was associated with adverse outcomes, featured by higher rates of severe pneumonia and mortality, in comparison with non-hyperglycaemia. This was accompanied by significantly altered laboratory indicators including lymphocyte and neutrophil percentage, C-reactive protein and urea nitrogen level, all with correlation coefficients >0.35. Both diabetes and hyperglycaemia were independently associated with adverse prognosis of COVID-19, with hazard ratios of 10.41 and 3.58, respectively.
The attitude control error of the robot end-effector directly affects the manufacturing accuracy. The study aims to develop a real-time measurement method of the industrial robot end-effector attitude in the field environment for improving the control accuracy of robot attitude.
In this paper, an attitude measurement method of robot end-effector based on the inertial technology was proposed. First, an inertial measurement system was designed, and the measurement parameters and installation errors were calibrated. Then the inertia measurement principle of robot end-effector attitude was explored, and the robot end-effector attitude measurement was realized with the fourth-order Runge−Kutta algorithm. In addition, the influence of the data processing algorithm and sampling frequency on the attitude accuracy was analyzed. Finally, a test platform was built to experimentally explore the proposed inertial measurement method.
The inertial measured data were compared with the data obtained with the laser tracker. The measurement accuracy of the inertial measurement method reached 0.15°, which met the accuracy requirements of real-time measurements of robot end-effector attitude in the manufacturing field.
The method proposed in this paper is convenient and can realize the real-time attitude measurement of industrial robot. The measurement results can compensate the attitude control error of the robot end-effector and improve the attitude control accuracy of the robot.