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We present a detailed overview of the cosmological surveys that we aim to carry out with Phase 1 of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA1) and the science that they will enable. We highlight three main surveys: a medium-deep continuum weak lensing and low-redshift spectroscopic HI galaxy survey over 5 000 deg2; a wide and deep continuum galaxy and HI intensity mapping (IM) survey over 20 000 deg2 from
$z = 0.35$
to 3; and a deep, high-redshift HI IM survey over 100 deg2 from
$z = 3$
to 6. Taken together, these surveys will achieve an array of important scientific goals: measuring the equation of state of dark energy out to
$z \sim 3$
with percent-level precision measurements of the cosmic expansion rate; constraining possible deviations from General Relativity on cosmological scales by measuring the growth rate of structure through multiple independent methods; mapping the structure of the Universe on the largest accessible scales, thus constraining fundamental properties such as isotropy, homogeneity, and non-Gaussianity; and measuring the HI density and bias out to
$z = 6$
. These surveys will also provide highly complementary clustering and weak lensing measurements that have independent systematic uncertainties to those of optical and near-infrared (NIR) surveys like Euclid, LSST, and WFIRST leading to a multitude of synergies that can improve constraints significantly beyond what optical or radio surveys can achieve on their own. This document, the 2018 Red Book, provides reference technical specifications, cosmological parameter forecasts, and an overview of relevant systematic effects for the three key surveys and will be regularly updated by the Cosmology Science Working Group in the run up to start of operations and the Key Science Programme of SKA1.
A new generation of radio telescopes with unprecedented capabilities for astronomy and fundamental physics will be in operation over the next few years. With high sensitivities and large fields of view, they are ideal for cosmological applications. We discuss their uses for cosmology focusing on the observational technique of HI intensity mapping, in particular at low redshifts (z < 4). This novel observational window promises to bring new insights for cosmology, in particular on ultra-large scales and at a redshift range that can go beyond the dark energy domination epoch. In terms of standard constraints on the dark energy equation of state, telescopes such as Phase I of the SKA should be able to obtain constrains about as well as a future galaxy redshift surveys. Statistical techniques to deal with foregrounds and calibration issues, as well as possible systematics are also discussed.
To measure the interobserver agreement, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of data submitted to a statewide surveillance system for identifying central line-associated bloodstream infection (BSI).
Retrospective review of hospital medical records comparing reported data with gold standard according to definitions of central line–associated BSI.
Six Victorian public hospitals with more than 100 beds.
Reporting of surveillance outcomes was undertaken by infection control practitioners at the hospital sites. Retrospective evaluation of the surveillance process was carried out by independent infection control practitioners from the Victorian Hospital Acquired Infection Surveillance System (VICNISS). A sample of records of patients reported to have a central line-associated BSI were assessed to determine whether they met the definition of central line–associated BSI. A sample of records of patients with bacteremia in the intensive care unit during the assessment period who were not reported as having central line–associated BSI were also assessed to see whether they met the definition of central line-associated BSI.
Records of 108 patients were reviewed; the agreement between surveillance reports and the VICNISS assessment was 67.6% (κ = 0.31). Of the 46 reported central line–associated BSIs, 27 were confirmed to be central line–associated BSIs, for a positive predictive value of 59% (95% confidence interval [CI], 43%–73%). Of the 62 cases of bacteremia reviewed that were not reported as central line–associated BSIs, 45 were not associated with a central line, for a negative predictive value of 73% (95% CI, 60%–83%). Estimated sensitivity was 35%, and specificity was 87%. The positive likelihood ratio was 3.0, and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.72.
The agreement between the reporting of central line–associated BSI and the gold standard application of definitions was unacceptably low. False-negative results were problematic; more than half of central line–associated BSIs may be missed in Victorian public hospitals.
To analyze the risk factors for surgical site infection (SSI) complicating coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and to create an alternative SSI risk score based on the results of multivariate analysis.
A prospective cohort study involving inpatient and laboratory-based surveillance of patients who underwent CABG surgery over a 27-month period from January 1, 2003 through March 31, 2005. Data were obtained from 6 acute care hospitals in Victoria, Australia, that contributed surveillance data for SSI complicating CABG surgery to the Victorian Hospital Acquired Infection Surveillance System Coordinating Centre and the Australasian Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons, also in Victoria.
A total of 4,633 (93%) of the 4,987 patients who underwent CABG surgery during this period were matched in the 2 systems databases. There were 286 SSIs and 62 deep or organ space sternal SSIs (deep or organ space sternal SSI rate, 1.33%). Univariate analysis revealed that diabetes mellitus, body mass index (BMI) greater than 35, and receipt of blood transfusion were risk factors for all types of SSI complicating CABG surgery. Six multivariate analysis models were created to examine either preoperative factors alone or preoperative factors combined with operative factors. All models revealed diabetes and BMI of 30 or greater as risk factors for SSI complicating CABG surgery. A new preoperative scoring system was devised to predict sternal SSI, which assigned 1 point for diabetes, 1 point for BMI of 30 or greater but less than 35, and 2 points for BMI of 35 or greater. Each point in the scoring system represented approximately a doubling of risk of SSI. The new scoring system performed better than the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance System (NNIS) risk index at predicting SSI.
A new weighted scoring system based on preoperative risk factors was created to predict sternal SSI risk following CABG surgery. The new scoring system outperformed the NNIS risk index. Future studies are needed to validate this scoring system.
To measure the accuracy and determine the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of data submitted to a statewide surveillance system for identifying surgical site infection (SSI) complicating coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery.
Retrospective review of hospital medical records comparing SSI data with surveillance data submitted by infection control consultants (ICCs).
Victorian Hospital Acquired Infection Surveillance System (VICNISS) Coordinating Centre in Victoria, Australia.
All patients reported to have an SSI following CABG surgery and a random sample of approximately 10% of patients reported not to have an SSI following CABG surgery.
The VICNISS ascertainment rate for CABG procedures in Victoria was 95%. One hundred sixty-nine medical records were reviewed, and reviewers agreed with ICCs about 46 (96%) of the patients reported as infected by the ICCs and 31 (91%) of the patients identified with a sternal SSI by the ICCs. In one-third of SSIs, the depth of SSI documented by ICCs was discordant with that documented by the reviewers. Disagreement about patients with donor site SSI was frequent. When the review findings were used as the reference standard, the PPV for ICC-reported SSI was 96% (95% confidence interval [CI], 86%-99%), and the NPV was 97% (95% CI, 92%-99%). For ICC-reported sternal SSI, the PPV was 91% (95% CI, 76%-98%) and the NPV was 98% (95% CI, 94%-100%).
There was broad agreement on the number of infected patients and the number of patients with sternal SSI. However, discordance was frequent with respect to the depth of sternal SSI and the identification of donor site SSI. We recommend modifications to the methodology for National Noscomial Infection Surveillance System-based surveillance for SSI following CABG surgery.
This data quality study assessed the accuracy of data collected as part of a pilot smaller-hospital surveillance program for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection and bloodstream infection (BSI). For reported MRSA infection, estimated values were as follows: sensitivity, 40%; specificity, 99.9%; and positive predictive value, 33.3%. For reported BSI, estimated values were as follows: sensitivity, 42.9%; specificity, 99.8%; and positive predictive value, 37.5%.
The Victorian Hospital Acquired Infection Surveillance System (VICNISS) hospital-acquired infection surveillance system was established in 2002 in Victoria, Australia, and collates surgical site infection (SSI) surveillance data from public hospitals in Australia.
To evaluate the association between the US National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance (NNIS) system's risk index and SSI rates for 7 surgical procedures.
SSI surveillance was performed with NNIS definitions and methods for surgical procedures performed between November 2002 and September 2004. Correlations were assessed using the Goodman-Kruskal γ statistic.
Data were submitted for the following numbers of procedures: appendectomy, 545; coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), 4,632; cholecystectomy, 1,001; colon surgery, 623; cesarean section, 4,857; hip arthroplasty, 3,825; and knee arthroplasty, 2,416. NNIS risk index and increasing SSI rate were moderately well correlated for appendectomy (γ = 0.55), colon surgery (γ = 0.48), and cesarean section (γ = 0.42). A fairly positive correlation was found for cholecystectomy (γ = 0.17), hip arthroplasty (γ = 0.2), and knee arthroplasty (γ = 0.16). However, for CABG surgery, a poor association was found (γ = 0.02).
The NNIS risk index was positively correlated with an increasing SSI rate for all 7 procedures; the strongest correlation was found for appendectomy, cesarean section, and colon surgery, and the poorest correlation was found for CABG surgery. We believe that risk stratification with the NNIS risk index is appropriate for comparison of data for most procedures and superior to use of no risk adjustment. However, for some procedures, particularly CABG, further studies of alternative risk indexes are needed to better stratify patients.
There is now an extensive literature on agrarian protest and unrest in Ireland from the eighteenth to the twentieth centuries, ranging from studies of secret societies to large-scale organisations such as the Land League. There has not, however, been any detailed published account of the dynamics and character of a most extensive and significant Irish agitation, the United Irish League, which was launched in January 1898. A study of this body is important, not only in its own terms, but for the light it throws on the nature of Irish agrarian agitation generally, especially as there exist more extant records than for earlier examples. By early 1900 this organisation had spread across most of Ireland, and it was to have major implications for the future course of Irish nationalism. Its methods were partly a consequence of a cumulative experience from the past, focused particularly on its immediate predecessors, the Land League of 1879–82, the subsequent Irish National League, and the Plan of Campaign in the latter half of the 1880s. Its political and agrarian purposes were to an unusual degree clearly articulated, thereby enabling a more precise analysis of the way in which particular methods of protest were related to objectives.
The Irish land act of 1903, commonly known as the Wyndham act, was the most significant achievement of George Wyndham’s term as chief secretary for Ireland. From the time of his appointment in 1900 Wyndham made the formulation of such a bill a first priority for himself and for his principal advisers. His private correspondence, especially that with Arthur Balfour, reveals how determined he was that it should provide, not the stop-gap measure of earlier legislation, but an effective and final solution to the vexed problem of land occupancy in Ireland. In the end, however, the draft legislation owed less to the efforts of Wyndham and his advisers than to his shrewdness in allowing to a conference between landlord and tenant representatives the scope to evolve an agreed solution in line with guiding principles which he had previously enunciated. The resulting act provided the basis for tenant farmers to secure the ownership of their farms, so bringing to an end the land war that had raged in Ireland since the late 1870s.
The chronic factionalism and dissension which had plagued Irish nationalist politics after the fall of Parnell in 1890 was finally brought to an end with the reunion of the Irish parliamentary party in January 1900. During the 1890s the monolithic parliamentary movement of Parnell’s time had degenerated into three separate and warring factions. One of these factions, led for most of this period by John Dillon, consisted of the majority of those who had opposed Parnell’s continued leadership in 1890. A breakaway group of anti-Parnellites, led by T.M. Healy, had adopted both a clericalist and a localist position in relation to nationalist politics, thus separating themselves from the secular and centralised structure of the majority party. The third faction consisted of the supporters of Parnell, led by John Redmond, but by 1897 these Parnellites had split into two groups as a result of differences between Redmond and Harrington over the issue of reunion with the anti-Parnellites. With the formerly impressive edifice of parliamentary nationalism thus split into four fragments, and with two leaders in particular — Healy and Redmond — openly frustrating any moves towards reunion, most nationalists must have felt further than ever removed from the prospect of an effective, united political movement.
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