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Imagine that you have just received a colon cancer diagnosis and need to choose between two different surgical treatments. One surgery, the "complicated surgery," has a lower mortality rate (16% vs. 20%) but compared to the other surgery, the "uncomplicated surgery," also carries an additional 1% risk of each of four serious complications: colostomy, chronic diarrhea, wound infection, or an intermittent bowel obstruction. The complicated surgery dominates the uncomplicated surgery as long as life with complications is preferred over death.
In our first survey, 51% of a sample (recruited from the cafeteria of a university medical center) selected the dominated alternative, the uncomplicated surgery, justifying this choice by saying that the death risks for the two surgeries were essentially the same and that the uncomplicated surgery avoided the risk of complications. In follow-up surveys, preference for the uncomplicated surgery remained relatively consistent (39%-51%) despite (a) presenting the risks in frequencies rather than percents, (b) grouping the 4 complications into a single category, or (c) giving the uncomplicated surgery a small chance of complications as well. Even when a pre-decision "focusing exercise" required people to state directly their preferences between life with each complication versus death, 49% still chose the uncomplicated surgery.
People’s fear of complications leads them to ignore important differences between treatments. This tendency appears remarkably resistant to debiasing approaches and likely leads patients to make healthcare decisions that are inconsistent with their own preferences.
Exclusion of special populations (older adults; pregnant women, children, and adolescents; individuals of lower socioeconomic status and/or who live in rural communities; people from racial and ethnic minority groups; individuals from sexual or gender minority groups; and individuals with disabilities) in research is a pervasive problem, despite efforts and policy changes by the National Institutes of Health and other organizations. These populations are adversely impacted by social determinants of health (SDOH) that reduce access and ability to participate in biomedical research. In March 2020, the Northwestern University Clinical and Translational Sciences Institute hosted the “Lifespan and Life Course Research: integrating strategies” “Un-Meeting” to discuss barriers and solutions to underrepresentation of special populations in biomedical research. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted how exclusion of representative populations in research can increase health inequities. We applied findings of this meeting to perform a literature review of barriers and solutions to recruitment and retention of representative populations in research and to discuss how findings are important to research conducted during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We highlight the role of SDOH, review barriers and solutions to underrepresentation, and discuss the importance of a structural competency framework to improve research participation and retention among special populations.
We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.
Technical summary
A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature.
Social media summary
How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.
To conduct an individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of manualised psychological treatments for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and examine the differential efficacy of psychological treatments by treatment type and format.
Background
Previous meta-analyses conclude that efficacious psychological treatments for OCD exist. However, determining the efficacy of psychological treatments requires multiple forms of assessment across a range of indexes, yet most previous meta-analyses in OCD are based solely on effect sizes.
Method
We evaluated treatment efficacy across 24 RCTs (n = 1,667) by conducting clinical significance analyses (using standardised Jacobson methodology) and standardised mean difference within-group effect-size analyses. Outcomes were Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) scores, evaluated at post-treatment and follow-up (3-6 months post-treatment).
Result
Post-treatment, there was a large significant within-group effect size for treated patients (g = 1.28) and a small significant effect size for controls (g = 0.30). At follow-up, large within-group effect sizes were found for both treated patients (g = 1.45) and controls (g = 0.90). Clinical significance analyses indicated that treated patients were significantly more likely than controls to recover following an intervention, but recovery rates were low; post-intervention, only 32% of treated patients and 3% of controls recovered; rising to 38% and 21% respectively at follow-up. Regardless of allocation, only approximately 20% of patients were asymptomatic at follow-up. Across the different analysis methods, individual cognitive therapy (CT) was the most effective intervention, followed by group CT plus exposure and response prevention. Self-help interventions were generally less effective.
Conclusion
Reliance on aggregated within-group effect sizes may lead to overestimation of the efficacy of psychological treatments for OCD. More research is needed to determine the most effective treatment type and format for patients with OCD.
In April 2019, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released its recovery plan for the jaguar Panthera onca after several decades of discussion, litigation and controversy about the status of the species in the USA. The USFWS estimated that potential habitat, south of the Interstate-10 highway in Arizona and New Mexico, had a carrying capacity of c. six jaguars, and so focused its recovery programme on areas south of the USA–Mexico border. Here we present a systematic review of the modelling and assessment efforts over the last 25 years, with a focus on areas north of Interstate-10 in Arizona and New Mexico, outside the recovery unit considered by the USFWS. Despite differences in data inputs, methods, and analytical extent, the nine previous studies found support for potential suitable jaguar habitat in the central mountain ranges of Arizona and New Mexico. Applying slightly modified versions of the USFWS model and recalculating an Arizona-focused model over both states provided additional confirmation. Extending the area of consideration also substantially raised the carrying capacity of habitats in Arizona and New Mexico, from six to 90 or 151 adult jaguars, using the modified USFWS models. This review demonstrates the crucial ways in which choosing the extent of analysis influences the conclusions of a conservation plan. More importantly, it opens a new opportunity for jaguar conservation in North America that could help address threats from habitat losses, climate change and border infrastructure.
We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments.
Technical summary
A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations.
Social media summary
Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
Electrochemical energy-storage systems such as supercapacitors and lithium-ion batteries require complex intertwined networks that provide fast transport pathways for ions and electrons without interfering with their energy density. Self-assembly of nanomaterials into hierarchical structures offers exciting possibilities to create such pathways. This article summarizes recent research achievements in self-assembled zero-dimensional, one-dimensional, and two-dimensional nanomaterials, ordered pore structure materials, and the interfaces between these. We analyze how self-assembly strategies can create storage architectures that improve device performance toward higher energy densities, longevity, rate capability, and device safety. At the end, the remaining challenges of scalable low-cost manufacturing and future opportunities such as self-healing are discussed.
Social disparities tied to social group membership(s) are prevalent and persistent within mainstream institutions (e.g., schools/workplaces). Accordingly, psychological science has harnessed selves - which are malleable and meaningfully shaped by social group membership(s) - as solutions to inequality. We propose and review evidence that theoretical and applied impacts of leveraging 'selves as solutions' can be furthered through the use of a stigma and strengths framework. Specifically, this framework conceptualizes selves in their fuller complexity, allowing the same social group membership to be associated with stigma, risk, and devaluation as well as strengths, resilience, and pride. We provide evidence that by enacting policies and practices that (a) reduce/minimize stigma and (b) recognize/include strengths, mainstream institutions can more fully mitigate social disparities tied to inclusion, achievement and well-being. Using social groups that vary in status/power we examine implications of this framework including the potential to foster positive, recursive, and intergroup impacts on social inequalities.
We set out to determine the rate of response of low-grade (WHO Grade II) gliomas to radiotherapy and analyze the relationship between radiographic response, symptom control and patient survival.
Methods:
Patients were eligible for this study if they had received radiotherapy for pathologically confirmed, residual, supratentorial low-grade astrocytoma, oligodendroglioma, or mixed glioma, and imaging studies (baseline and follow-up) were available for review. Percent change in tumor size and rate and timing of response were determined by maximum linear measurement, area measurement, volume measurement using an ellipsoid model, and volume measurement by image segmentation. For each method, response to radiotherapy was defined firstly as a ≥50% decrease in tumor size (partial response), and secondly as a decrease equivalent to a 50% area decrease (normalized partial response). Relationships between radiographic response, clinical improvement and progression-free survival were analyzed using a Cox Proportional Hazard's model.
Results:
Twenty-one patients in a database (13 male, 8 female; ages 22-66 years) met the eligibility criteria. Twenty were imaged by computed tomography, 18 had an astrocytoma and 15 were irradiated soon after surgery. Responses were common and not felt to be due to a steroid effect. Use of normalized response criteria improved agreement between assessment of response as determined by the 4 methods. Median time to maximum radiographic improvement was 2.8 months (range, 1.5-11). Sixteen patients (76%) were improved neurologically, the median time to progression was 4.8 years and the 5-year progression-free survival rate was 43%. We did not detect a statistically significant association between response (as measured by any method), symptomatology and progression-free survival.
Conclusions:
Low-grade gliomas are moderately radioresponsive. Use of volume measurement may over-estimate the number of partial responses unless a volume reduction equivalent to a 50% area decrease is used to define response. The best way to measure response remains uncertain because neither visual, area, nor volume changes confidently predicted clinical outcomes.
Highly anomalous platinum-group element (PGE) concentrations in the podiform chromitites at the Cliff and Harold's Grave localities in the Shetland ophiolite complex have been well documented previously. The focus of this study is alluvial platinum-group minerals (PGM) located in small streams that drain from the PGE-rich chromitites. The placer PGM assemblage at Cliff is dominated by Pt-arsenides (64%) and Pd-antimonides (17%), with less irarsite–hollingworthite (11%) and minor Pd-sulfides, Pt–Pd–Cu and Pt–Fe alloys and laurite. Gold also occurs with the PGM. Alluvial PGM have average sizes of 20 µm × 60 µm, with sperrylite the largest grain identified at 110 µm in diameter, matching the range reported for the primary PGM in the source rocks. The placer assemblage contains more Pt-bearing and less Pd-bearing PGM compared with the rocks. The more resistant sperrylite and irarsite–hollingworthite grains which are often euhedral become more rounded further downstream whereas the less resistant Pd-antimonides which are commonly subhedral may become striated and etched. Less stable phases such as Pt- and Pd-oxides and other Ni-Cu-bearing phases located in the rocks (i.e. Ru-pentlandite, PtCu, Pd–Cu alloy) are absent in the placer assemblage. Also the scarce PGM (PdHg, Rh- and Ir-Sb) and Os in the rocks are absent. At Harold's Grave only three alluvial PGM (laurite, Ir, Os) and Au were recovered reflecting the limited release of IPGM from chromite grains in the rocks. In this cold climate with high rainfall, where erosion dominates over weathering, the PGM appear to have been derived directly from the erosion of the adjacent PGE-rich source rocks and there is little evidence of in situ growth of any newly formed PGM. Only the presence of dendritic pure Au and Pd-, Cu-bearing Au covers on the surface of primary minerals may indicate some local reprecipitation of these metals in the surficial conditions.
Inclusions of platinum-group minerals (PGM) within alluvial isoferroplatinum nuggets from the Freetown Peninsula, Sierra Leone, are aligned with their shape determined by the structure of their host. The edges of the majority of the inclusions lie at 0°, 45° or 90° to external crystal edges of the nugget which shows that the inclusions are not randomly oriented earlier minerals incorporated within their host. The inclusions are later infills, probably formed at the surface of the nugget during growth and subsequently enclosed by the growing nugget. PGM on the present surface of the nugget represent the last stage of this partnership. A single nugget containing abundant inclusions is described here but similar features are observed in other nuggets from the same area. The inclusions contain laurite (RuS2), irarsite–hollingworthite (IrAsS–RhAsS), Pd–Te–Bi–Sb phases, Ir-alloy, Os-alloy, Pd-bearing Au, an Rh–Te phase, Pd–Au alloy and Pd–Pt–Cu alloy. PGM found on the nugget surface include laurite, irarsite and cuprorhodsite (CuRh2S4). The Pd–Te–Bi–Sb phases may include Sb-rich keithconnite (Pd20S7) and compositions close to the kotulskite–sobolevskite solid-solution series (PdTe–BiTe). Textural evidence suggests that formation of the nuggets began with the isoferroplatinum host and the voids were filled starting intergrowths of laurite and irarsite–hollingworthite with both laurite and irarsite–hollingworthite often showing compositional zonation and each of them replacing the other. Filling of the voids probably continued with Pd-Cu-bearing gold, Sb-rich keithconnite (Pd,Pt)20.06(Te,Sb,Bi)6.94, keithconnite, telluropalladinite Pd9(Te,Bi)4, RhTe and finally Ir-alloy and then Os-alloy. The nuggets are thought to be neoform growths in the organic- and bacterial-rich soils of the tropical rain forest cover of the Freetown intrusion. The mineralogical assemblage in the layered gabbros of the intrusion has been previously shown to differ from the alluvial assemblage in the rivers and these inclusions, not seen in Pt3Fe in the unaltered rocks, add a further item to the catalogue of differences.
Heavy mineral concentrates from rivers and river terraces near York, Freetown Peninsula, Sierra Leone have been examined for their platinum-group mineral (PGM) content. The alluvial PGM are 0.1 to 1.5 mm in size and include Cu-bearing isoferroplatinum (Pt3Fe) and disordered Pt3–xFe (x ≤ 0.38), tulameenite (Pt2FeCu), hongshiite (PtCu), cooperite–vysotskite (PtS–PdS), laurite (RuS2), erlichmanite (OsS2), Os-Ir alloy, Os-Ru alloy and native copper.
Are the alluvial nuggets primary or a neoformation? Comparison of the PGM mineralogy of fresh rocks, weathered rocks and the saprolite, with the alluvial suite shows strongly contrasting features highlighted by the mineral assemblage. Cooperite in the fresh rocks is rare in the alluvium whilst Pt-Fe alloys become more abundant. Oxidized PGM are a feature only of the weathering process and disordering of the Pt-Fe alloys develops during weathering. Palladium is much less abundant in the alluvial suite than in the primary minerals whereas Cu, present as Cu-sulfides in the fresh rocks, occurs in the alluvium as a minor component of the Pt-Fe alloys and as hongshiite alteration to the Pt-Fe alloys. The size difference is striking; the primary mineralogy is micrometre-sized whereas the alluvial PGM are three orders of magnitude larger. Delicate PGM with alteration textures are seen only in the weathered rocks whilst delicate dendritic PGM are reported only from the alluvial suite. An organic coating to the alluvial PGM may be indicative of an organic or bacterial involvement. Some alluvial PGM occur in a drainage basin devoid of outcrops of PGE-bearing horizons.
Together these contrasting features of the primary and placer PGM support the proposal that the Freetown nuggets developed as a result of breakdown of the primary PGM during weathering, movement of the PGE in solution, and growth of new PGM in placers with a different mineral assemblage, mineralogy and mineral chemistry.
According to the Fine-Tuning Argument (FTA), the existence of life in our universe confirms the Multiverse Hypothesis (HM). A standard objection to FTA is that it violates the Requirement of Total Evidence (RTE). I argue that RTE should be rejected in favor of the Predesignation Requirement, according to which, in assessing the outcome of a probabilistic process, we should only use evidence characterizable in a manner available before observing the outcome. This produces the right verdicts in some simple cases in which RTE leads us astray, and, when applied to FTA, it shows that our evidence does confirm HM.
In North America, terrestrial records of biodiversity and climate change that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 are rare. Where found, they provide insight into how the coupling of the ocean–atmosphere system is manifested in biotic and environmental records and how the biosphere responds to climate change. In 2010–2011, construction at Ziegler Reservoir near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA) revealed a nearly continuous, lacustrine/wetland sedimentary sequence that preserved evidence of past plant communities between ~140 and 55 ka, including all of MIS 5. At an elevation of 2705 m, the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site also contained thousands of well-preserved bones of late Pleistocene megafauna, including mastodons, mammoths, ground sloths, horses, camels, deer, bison, black bear, coyotes, and bighorn sheep. In addition, the site contained more than 26,000 bones from at least 30 species of small animals including salamanders, otters, muskrats, minks, rabbits, beavers, frogs, lizards, snakes, fish, and birds. The combination of macro- and micro-vertebrates, invertebrates, terrestrial and aquatic plant macrofossils, a detailed pollen record, and a robust, directly dated stratigraphic framework shows that high-elevation ecosystems in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado are climatically sensitive and varied dramatically throughout MIS 5.
Resonant Inductive Coupling Wireless Power Transfer (RIC-WPT)is a key technology to provide an efficient wireless power channel to consumer electronics, biomedical implants and wireless sensor networks. Due to its non radiative nature, RIC Wireless Power Transfer has been considered safe for humans when adhered to magnetic health radiation safety regulations (Christ et al., 2013), unveiling a large range of potential applications in which this technology could be used. However, current deployments are limited to point-to-point links and do not explore the capabilities of Multi-Node RIC-WPT Systems. In such a system, the multi-path relaying effect between different nodes could effectively improve the performance of the link in terms of power transferred to the load and power transfer efficiency. However, depending on the impedance and resonant frequency of the nodes that generate the multi-path effect, these nodes could also act as interfering objects, therefore (a) making the transmitter and/or receiver act as a pass-band filter and (b) losing part of the transmitter magnetic field through coupling to the interfering node. In this paper, a circuit-based analytical model that predicts the behavior of a Multi-Node Resonant Inductive Coupling link is proposed and used to perform a design-space exploration of the multi-path relaying effect in RIC Wireless Power Transfer Systems.