We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.
To save content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about saving content to .
To save content items to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about saving to your Kindle.
Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Peer victimization and anxiety frequently co-occur and result in adverse outcomes in youth. Cognitive behavioural treatment is effective for anxiety and may also decrease children’s vulnerability to victimization.
Aims:
This study aims to examine peer victimization in youth who have presented to clinical services seeking treatment for anxiety.
Method:
Following a retrospective review of clinical research data collected within a specialized service, peer victimization was examined in 261 children and adolescents (55.6% male, mean age 10.6 years, SD = 2.83, range 6–17 years) with a diagnosed anxiety disorder who presented for cognitive behavioural treatment. Youth and their parents completed assessments of victimization, friendships, anxiety symptoms, and externalizing problems.
Results:
High levels of victimization in this sample were reported. Children’s positive perceptions of their friendships were related to lower risk of relational victimization, while conduct problems were related to an increased risk of verbal and physical victimization. A subsample of these participants (n = 112, 57.1% male, mean age 10.9 years, SD = 2.89, range 6–17 years) had completed group-based cognitive behavioural treatment for their anxiety disorder. Treatment was associated with reductions in both self-reported anxiety and victimization. Results confirm the role of friendships and externalizing symptoms as factors associated with increased risk of victimization in youth with an anxiety disorder in a treatment-seeking sample.
Conclusions:
Treatment for anxiety, whether in a clinic or school setting, may provide one pathway to care for young people who are victimized, as well as playing a role in preventing or reducing victimization.
The dating of pollen grains is emerging as the method of choice for lacustrine climate archives that contain few datable macrofossils. Due to the need for high-purity pollen concentrates, new methods are constantly being developed to precisely separate pollen grains. Flow cytometry represents a promising alternative to conventional approaches, enabling the identification of pollen grains through fluorescence and rapid separation for radiocarbon analysis using accelerator mass spectrometry, which has so far been limited to sediments with a high proportion of conifer pollen. We present a revised method for processing large sediment samples, resulting in high-purity pollen and spore concentrates. Using this approach small- to medium-sized pollen and bryophyte spores were isolated from Lake Van sediment samples (Eastern Anatolia, Turkey) in sufficient purity for radiocarbon dating. However, a systematic age discrepancy between pollen and bryophyte spore concentrates was noted. By adapting the chemical and cytometric methods, pure pollen concentrates can be created for sediments with low organic content enabling age determination of climate archives with a low proportion of large pollen or low pollen concentration.
Little is known about the early history of the chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus), including the timing and circumstances of its introduction into new cultural environments. To evaluate its spatio-temporal spread across Eurasia and north-west Africa, the authors radiocarbon dated 23 chicken bones from presumed early contexts. Three-quarters returned dates later than those suggested by stratigraphy, indicating the importance of direct dating. The results indicate that chickens did not arrive in Europe until the first millennium BC. Moreover, a consistent time-lag between the introduction of chickens and their consumption by humans suggests that these animals were initially regarded as exotica and only several centuries later recognised as a source of ‘food’.
Glass bangles are found in southern England and Wales from the mid-first century ad and become common in the north of England and southern Scotland in the late first century, before their numbers decline a century later. British bangles develop at a time of change, as Roman glassmaking practices were introduced across large areas of Britain, and as blown, transparent, colourless and naturally-coloured glassware became increasingly popular. In many communities, however, there was still a demand for strongly coloured opaque glass, including for bangles, and glassworkers devised ways of extending their supplies of opaque coloured glass. This study is based on over one hundred and fifty analyses of bangle fragments from sites in Wales, northern England and southern Scotland, spanning this transitional period. The bangle makers recycled coloured glass from imported vessels, and probably beads and bangle-making waste, to supplement supplies of fresh coloured glass. The novel methods used to modify and extend the coloured glass may derive from pre-Roman bead-making industries, and made use of widely available materials, including smithing hammerscale and possibly plant ashes. The results show the shifting balance of indigenous and Roman influences on different bangle types, depending on when and where they were made, and by whom.
Response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is associated with clinical and transdiagnostic genetic factors. The predictive combination of these variables might help clinicians better predict which patients will respond to lithium treatment.
Aims
To use a combination of transdiagnostic genetic and clinical factors to predict lithium response in patients with bipolar disorder.
Method
This study utilised genetic and clinical data (n = 1034) collected as part of the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen) project. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were computed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, and then combined with clinical variables using a cross-validated machine-learning regression approach. Unimodal, multimodal and genetically stratified models were trained and validated using ridge, elastic net and random forest regression on 692 patients with bipolar disorder from ten study sites using leave-site-out cross-validation. All models were then tested on an independent test set of 342 patients. The best performing models were then tested in a classification framework.
Results
The best performing linear model explained 5.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response and was composed of clinical variables, PRS variables and interaction terms between them. The best performing non-linear model used only clinical variables and explained 8.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response. A priori genomic stratification improved non-linear model performance to 13.7% (P = 0.0001) and improved the binary classification of lithium response. This model stratified patients based on their meta-polygenic loadings for major depressive disorder and schizophrenia and was then trained using clinical data.
Conclusions
Using PRS to first stratify patients genetically and then train machine-learning models with clinical predictors led to large improvements in lithium response prediction. When used with other PRS and biological markers in the future this approach may help inform which patients are most likely to respond to lithium treatment.
We model scientific theories as Bayesian networks. Nodes carry credences and function as abstract representations of propositions within the structure. Directed links carry conditional probabilities and represent connections between those propositions. Updating is Bayesian across the network as a whole. The impact of evidence at one point within a scientific theory can have a very different impact on the network than does evidence of the same strength at a different point. A Bayesian model allows us to envisage and analyze the differential impact of evidence and credence change at different points within a single network and across different theoretical structures.
Elephants are attracted to nutrient hotspots created through short duration overnight cattle corralling (hereafter kraaling) in natural rangelands at Debshan, a mixed cattle-wildlife private ranch in central Zimbabwe, causing severe tree damage. We determined the effect of age of nutrient hotspot (i.e., time after kraal use) on elephant use and the extent of tree damage. Elephant use and tree damage were assessed in nutrient hotspots of varying ages (6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 months after kraal use) and in surrounding landscape. We also compared Acacia karroo bark nutrient and soil nutrient concentration between nutrient hotspots (24 months after kraal use) and the surrounding landscape. Elephant use of nutrient hotspots was highest at 12 and 24 months after kraaling. The most severely damaged trees were in the 12-, 24- and 36-month-old nutrient hotspots. Acacia karroo bark nutrient concentrations (nitrogen, potassium, calcium, magnesium and iron) were higher in nutrient hotspots than surrounding vegetation, while soil nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, calcium and potassium) were higher in nutrient hotspots than surrounding landscape. We concluded that elephants mostly used nutrient hotspots 12 and 24 months after kraaling, while severe tree damage occurred 12, 24 and 36 months after kraal use.
Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are the most common congenital malformations. Patients with CHD have a higher morbidity and mortality rate and are at greater risk for infectious diseases. The risk might even be higher if complex CHD occurs and if CHD is associated with additional co-morbidities. Therefore, immunisations in these children are essential.
Materials and Methods:
Individuals were recruited at the outpatient centre of the Department of Congenital Heart Defects and Pediatric Cardiology at the German Heart Center Munich in the time between February 2016 and February 2017. Included were children between 23 months and 17 years and a diagnosis of CHD. The vaccination certificate aimed to assess the immunization status.
Results:
In total, 657 children with CHD were included and analysed. Regarding primary immunisation, only 34 % (n = 221) of the children reached the complete vaccination status within the allowed catch-up time. Among these primary immunisation rates, vaccinations against Hepatitis B, Meningococci, Varicella and Pneumococci were found to have the lowest coverage with all being below 80%. The vaccination rate was partly influenced by the previously performed number of surgeries but not by the diagnosis of specific genetic diseases. At the age of school entry, the immunisation rate in children with CHD was also lower than in the comparable healthy population.
Conclusion:
The vaccination coverage rate in children with CHD is lower than in comparable healthy children, although this is a vulnerable patient group. Further education of parents and treating physicians of children with CHD regarding vaccination is still needed.
Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, public-health decision makers have increasingly relied on hospitalization forecasts that are routinely provided, accurate, and based on timely input data to inform pandemic planning. In North Carolina, we adapted an existing agent-based model (ABM) to produce 30-day hospitalization forecasts of COVID-19 and non–COVID-19 hospitalizations for use by public-health decision makers. We sought to continually improve model speed and accuracy during forecasting. Methods: The geospatially explicit ABM included movement of agents (ie, patients) among 104 short-term acute-care hospitals, 10 long-term acute-care hospitals, 421 licensed nursing homes, and the community in North Carolina. Agents were based on a synthetic population of North Carolina residents (ie, >10.4 million agents). We assigned SARS-CoV-2 infections to agents according to county-level susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered (SEIR) models informed by reported COVID-19 cases by county. Agents’ COVID-19 severity and probability of hospitalization were determined using agent-specific characteristics (eg, age, comorbidities). During May 2020–December 2020, we produced weekly 30-day forecasts of intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU bed occupancy for COVID-19 agents and non–COVID-19 agents statewide and by region under a range of SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction numbers. During the reporting period, we identified optimizations for faster results turnaround. We evaluated the incorporation of real-time hospital-level occupancy data at model initialization on forecast accuracy using mean absolute percent error (MAPE). Results: During May 2020–December 2020, we provided 31 weekly reports of 30-day hospitalization forecasts with a 1-day turnaround time. Reports included (1) raw and smoothed 7-day average values for 42 model output variables; (2) static visuals of ICU and non-ICU bed demand and capacity; and (3) an interactive Tableau workbook of hospital demand variables. Identifying code efficiencies reduced a single model runtime from ~100 seconds to 28 seconds. The use of cloud computing reduced simulation runtime from ~20 hours to 15 minutes. Across forecasts, the average MAPEs were 21.6% and 7.1% for ICU and non-ICU bed demand, respectively. By incorporating hospital-level occupancy data, we reduced the average MAPE to 6.5% for ICU bed demand and 3.9% for non-ICU bed demand, indicating improved accuracy. Conclusions: We adapted an ABM and continually improved it during COVID-19 forecasting by optimizing code and computing resources and including real-time hospital-level occupancy data. Planned SEIR model updates for enhanced forecasts include the addition of compartments for undocumented infections and recoveries as well as permission of reinfection from recovered compartments.
Women with underlying cardiac conditions have an increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Counselling reproductive age women with heart disease is important to assist them in deciding whether to pursue pregnancy, to ensure their best cardiovascular status prior to pregnancy, and that they understand the risks of pregnancy for them and baby. This also provides an opportunity to explore management strategies to reduce risks. For this growing cohort of women, there is a great need for pre-conceptual counselling.
This retrospective comparative audit assessed new referrals and pre-conceptual counselling of women attending a joint obstetric–cardiology clinic at a tertiary maternity centre in a 12-month period of 2015–2016 compared with 2018–2019. This reflected the timing of the introduction of a multidisciplinary meeting prior to clinics and assessed the impact on referrals with the introduction of the European Society of Cardiology guidelines.
Data were reviewed from 56 and 67 patients in respective audit periods. Patient’s risk was stratified using modified World Health Organization classification.
Less than 50% of women with pre-existing cardiac conditions had received pre-conceptual counselling, although half of them had risks clearly documented. The majority of patients had a recent electrocardiograph and echocardiogram performed prior to counselling, and there was a modest improvement in the number of appropriate functional tests performed between time points. One-third of patients in both cohorts were taking cardiac medications during pregnancy.
There was a significant increase in the number of pregnant women with cardiac disease and in complexity according to modified World Health Organization risk classification. While there have been improvements, it is clear that further work to improve availability and documentation of pre-pregnancy counselling is needed.
This chapter is about managing expectations and describing the features of the Gartner hype cycle. It also explores an approach to the DIKW (Data – Information – Knowledge – Wisdom) pyramid and how to deliver early incremental value to the business in a strategic context.
The Trough of Disillusionment
We have previously talked about the issue of the ‘hype cycle’ when discussing the ability of the new CDO to shift between the tactical and the strategic. The hype cycle is a Gartner tool to represent the maturity, adoption and social application of specific technologies. It claims to provide a graphical and conceptual presentation of the maturity of emerging technologies through five phases: technology trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlighten ment, plateau of productivity. It has been criticised, not least for not being a cycle:
The Gartner hype cycle has been criticised for a lack of evidence that it holds, and for not matching well with technological uptake in practice.
(Wikipedia, March 2020)
However, the idea can also help us to understand the challenges facing a new CDO, and to frame the first 100 days and beyond.
Currently, the CDO role is relatively new in many organisations, and, even if it is not, the CDO will arrive into an atmosphere of great expectation. There will be common sentiments that will greet you: ‘the business will be transformed into a data-driven business, an organisation capable of making better and more informed decisions based on data; data science will bring the business better insight into its customers and operations; the new CDO will bring big data’. The organisation's data risks, on the enterprise risk register, may even list the arrival of the new CDO as the mitigation.
There will be great expectations about the arrival of the CDO; there will also, in most cases, be a lot of goodwill and enthusiasm in the business for data success. One of the biggest threats to you – certainly in the first 24 months or first 1½ financial years – is the Trough of Disillusionment in the hype cycle.
We started the preface of the first edition of this book with a short anecdote to set the scene; since then, much has changed. The ecosystem of the CDO has evolved, there are more CDOs and more organisations are trying to get their data under control and to leverage its value. However, that initial anecdote still is very relevant, so here goes.
We were on a panel at a conference discussing how to harness value from data − we’ve changed the discussion topic slightly so as to not identify the conference, event or other participants; to protect the ‘notso-innocent’. This topic, or a closely related one, has been a regular feature of the panels and discussions we’ve been involved with. It seems everyone is trying to get to the heart of that question and find the answer. Data has been seen as such an inconsequential thing, that just seemed to be there, in the past; but there is a growing respect for data as a really fundamental asset − which is a great thing.
Everyone knows, because we’ve all been told many times recently, that data is the new oil, or perhaps the new soil, the new sun, the new water, we’ve even heard a comparison to bacon. The question that then leads out of this is the one we have been facing: if data is the new oil, how does an organisation get value out of it? It is all very well having struck oil, but if you don't know how to get it out of the ground, or how to refine it into useful products, or that it can be transformed and manufactured into valuable products or consumed to create energy – what use is the oil in the ground? To be frank we really hate data is the new oil, because data is data and the analogy only goes so far before it falls really short on highlighting the power of data.
On that panel we began by responding to some prepared questions. There were some great and experienced minds on the panel: leaders in their respective fields and all practitioners from the hard edge of industry, business and commerce.
This chapter poses a number of questions: are you an FCDO or an SCDO? CDOs come from a wide spectrum of skills and experience: where are you on that spectrum? What are your strengths and weaknesses? We discuss the importance of addressing these questions. The questions may be too simple, or perhaps the answers more complex than it might seem. There are several features that will determine what type of CDO you are.
What sort of CDO?
Looking at one aspect, which we have discussed already, are you an FCDO, SCDO or TCDO? Each of these is very different, regardless of their background, expertise or sector. The difference is very much around what type of person you are. In very simple terms, as an FCDO you will probably arrive in post with no existing team, reports or support. It may well be that you don't even have a desk because your role hasn't existed before. The FCDO isn't on the auto-invite for the many meetings and boards that they need to be on, so the role is often a lonely one for a while: the person in that role has to be resilient, able to think and motivate themselves alone, and to be very outgoing, to win the hearts and minds within the organisation. You would really struggle with this role as a shrinking violet. The SCDO and TCDO can perhaps be more low key, even though they will want to make their own mark; they will at least have a warm desk and a team to welcome them, and perhaps a budget. The organisation should already understand their value and the types of return on investment that they can bring.
CDOs come from many backgrounds and have a variety of skills. It is worth spending some time to consider what sort of CDO you are. What sort of CDO will you be, or wish to be? Or, if you are running a business, what sort of CDO do you want, or what sort do you wish to recruit? It is especially important to understand this, both for the recruiter and for the recruit; this will be make or break, both at interview and in post.
This chapter explores the idea that the CDO is different to the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) or Chief Information Officer (CIO) and discusses the relationship that the CDO might have with the Chief Executive Officer (CEO). The key role of the CDO and data ownership is examined. This chapter is aimed at the business stakeholders.
There are more C-Suite roles than there used to be. The longestablished roles of Chief Executive and Chief Information Officer now have to compete for room at the table with roles like the Chief Information Security Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Finance Officer, Chief Customer Officer, Chief Digital Officer and, of course, the Chief Data Officer – it's getting a bit crowded around the table.
Key relationships
Relationship building is a key skill for the CDO. Working with the data means you, the CDO, are cutting across the silos in the organisation and therefore potentially messing around in everyone's backyard, so you had better be able to ask nicely before you do, or have some air cover for when an area feels pain for the greater good! While the CDO needs to form a working relationship with any other stakeholders in the company, not just the rest of the C-Suite, the one that causes the most concern is the relationship with CIO or CTO; it definitely generates the most questions at conferences. Of course these roles and their scope vary from organisation to organisation.
The difference between a CIO and CDO (apart from the words ‘information’ and ‘data’) is best described using the bucket-and-water analogy. The CIO is responsible for the bucket (the technology), ensuring that it is complete, without any holes in it, that the bucket is the right size, with just a little bit of spare room but not too much and it's all in a safe place. The CDO is responsible for the liquid (the data) you put in the bucket, ensuring that it is the right liquid, the right amount, and that it is not contaminated. The CDO is also responsible for what happens to the liquid; making it available when it's needed. In this analogy the CIO has a responsibility to make the water accessible to the CDO (the business).
This chapter suggests that all organisations hoard data. It goes on to explore why we hoard data, where we store this data and the nature of ‘dark data’. The chapter provides some suggestions for cutting through the hoarded data and the dark data and looks at the importance of counting the value of the data we do have.
The hoarding mentality
Have you ever watched those programmes on TV where a person is labelled a ‘hoarder’? There tend to be various interviews with friends and family who are worried about the person and then pictures showing the person's home, which is usually so full of stuff that it is not fit to live in. You then see the person themselves, who sometimes recognises the problem, but not to the same extent that their nearest and dearest do. Normally they have found a way to make their home work as far as they are concerned: there are paths around the piles of things, as long as you pull in your stomach and walk sideways, and the oven makes a much better cupboard than it did a cooking implement, so cold food works just fine. If you watch them, though, you can tell that deep down they know that this isn't how most people live, but are in denial about the amount of time they are sitting in discomfort and working around a situation which, to outside eyes, could be easily solved. Most of us have tendencies in this direction: those shoes, tools or drawers full of bits that you keep just in case. Every single one of us must have experienced that feeling when you suddenly need something that you threw away the day before, because you had been storing it for so long and had never needed it, and so resolve to be more patient with your storage needs next time.
However, compulsive hoarding (which is what these individuals suffer from):
… is a pattern of behaviour characterised by excessive acquisition and an inability or unwillingness to discard large quantities of objects that cover the living areas of the home and cause significant distress or impairment. Compulsive hoarders may be aware of their irrational behaviour, but the emotional attachment to the hoarded objects far exceeds the motive to discard the items.
(‘Compulsive hoarding’, Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
This chapter explains how data governance can help and not hinder the business; in fact, how data governance can drive innovation. The elements of good data governance are outlined, and how good data assurance can keep the data strategy and business on track.
Data governance and data protection
Data governance is one of the pillars of a data strategy and a large part of the CDO's task and responsibilities. Why are we singling out data governance in particular for its own chapter in this book, and not master data management, metadata or some other core deliverable in a data strategy?
The answer is twofold. First, it could be argued that data governance is the underpinning principle of any data capability: it is fundamental to the work of a CDO. Second, the introduction of GDPR in May 2018 brought data governance into sharp focus, and the role of the Data Protection Officer (DPO) within organisations is worth some examination in relation to the CDO; as the legislation has become more embedded, so the role has evolved and become more understood. So, the first reason for examining the CDO's role in data governance is the importance of the business outcomes that effective data governance provides and the second reason is regulatory pressures.
In fact, since the first edition of this book more countries are taking the regulation of data protection much more seriously. Various African nations have introduced (or are reviewing) amendments to their 2004 law on the protection of personal data which strengthen the rights of the individual with regard to their data. US states such as California, with ‘the California Consumer Privacy Act’, seek to establish an enforceable right of privacy. Canada has also reviewed and changed some of its privacy regulations, and the list goes on.
Not only have regulations been updated (and tightened) but they are also, in our opinion, being taken much more seriously. Equifax agreed to pay a fine of $575 million because not only did they fail to fix a critical vulnerability months after a patch had been issued, but they then failed to inform the public of the breach for weeks after it had been discovered.