Diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (Linnaeus) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae), a globally important pest of Brassicaceae crops, migrates into all provinces of Canada annually. Life tables were used to determine the mortality levels contributed by the parasitoid complexes associated with diamondback moth in British Columbia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and insular Newfoundland. Overall, diamondback moth populations showed high generational mortality (> 90%) in all provinces, although parasitism levels were generally low. The net reproductive rate of increase in diamondback moth was less than 1.0 (populations declined) in both years in British Columbia and in each of two years in Newfoundland and Ontario, but it was greater than 1.0 in all three years in Prince Edward Island. Lower parasitism levels were found in Prince Edward Island (3.0–6.3%) compared with other provinces (8.4–17.6%, except one year in British Columbia). Diadegma insulare was the main larval parasitoid found; it was present in all provinces. Microplitis plutellae was present in all provinces except British Columbia. Oomyzus sokolowskii was found in British Columbia and Ontario. The parasitoid community documented from sentinel sampling was less diverse than that found through destructive sampling. Hypotheses are provided to explain the presence of major parasitoids. Increasing larval parasitism would have the largest effect on diamondback moth population growth in Canada.

ABSTRACT IMPACT: E-values can help quantify the amount of unmeasured confounded necessary to fully explain away a relationship between treatment and outcomes in observational data. OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Older patients with HL have worse outcomes than younger patients, which may reflect treatment choice (e.g., fewer chemotherapy cycles). We studied the relationship between treatment intensity and 3-year overall survival (OS) in SEER-Medicare. We calculated an E-value to quantify the unmeasured confounding needed to explain away any relationship. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: This retrospective cohort study of SEER-Medicare data from 1999-2016 included 1131 patients diagnosed with advanced stage HL at age ≥65 years. Treatment was categorized as: (1) full chemotherapy regimens (‘full regimen’, n=689); (2) partial chemotherapy regimen (‘partial regimen’, n=175); (3) single chemotherapy agent or radiotherapy (‘single agent/RT’, n=102), or (4) no treatment (n=165). A multivariable Cox regression model estimated the relationship between treatment and 3-year OS, adjusting for disease and patient factors. An E-value was computed to quantify the minimum strength of association that an unmeasured confounder would need to have with both the treatment and OS to completely explain away a significant association between treatment and OS based on the multivariable model. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Results from the multivariable model found higher hazards of death for partial regimens (HR=1.81, 95% CI=1.43, 2.29), single agent/RT (HR=1.74, 95% CI=1.30, 2.34), or no treatment (HR=1.98, 95% CI=1.56, 2.552) compared to full regimens. We calculated an E-value for single agent/RT because it has the smallest HR of the treatment levels. The observed HR of 1.74 could be explained away by an unmeasured confounder that was associated with both treatment and OS with a HR of 2.29, above and beyond the measured confounders; the 95% CI could be moved to include the null by an unmeasured confounder that was associated with both the treatment and OS with a HR of 1.69. Of the measured confounders, B symptoms had the strongest relationship with treatment (HR=2.08) and OS (HR=1.38), which was below the E-value. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS: Patients with advanced stage HL who did not receive full chemotherapy regimens had worse 3-year OS, even after adjusting for potential confounders related to the patient and disease. The E-value analysis made explicit the amount of unmeasured confounding necessary to fully explain away the relationship between treatment and OS.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Older patients with HL have worse outcomes than younger patients, which may reflect treatment selection, including fewer chemotherapy cycles. Immortal time bias exists when patients must survival to initiation, and even completion, of treatment. We described treatment length and death to evaluate the extent of immortal time bias. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: This retrospective cohort study utilized SEER-Medicare data from 1999-2014. Patients diagnosed with incident advanced stage HL at age ≥65 years and enrolled in Medicare Part A and B fee for service were included. Chemotherapy or radiotherapy treatment initiated within 4 months of diagnosis was determined from inpatient, outpatient, and physician/supplier claims. No treatment was defined by lack of treatment claims. Dates from claims were used to define length of treatment; ≥4 months of treatment indicated complete chemotherapy cycles. Date of death was obtained from Medicare data. Analyses were limited to 1 year post-diagnosis. Summary statistics were used to describe treatment length and subsequent death. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: We included 1492 advanced stage HL patients with a mean age of 76 years (SD = 7). 428 (29%) patients had no documented treatment; 397 (27%) were treated <4 months indicating fewer chemotherapy cycles; and 667 (45%) were treated for ≥4 months indicating complete chemotherapy cycles. Among those with no documented treatment, 15% died within 1 month of diagnosis with 78% dying by 1 year post-diagnosis. Among those treated <4 months, 36% died within 1 month of their last treatment claim with 64% dying by 1 year post-diagnosis. Among those treated ≥4 months, 7% died within 1 month of their last treatment claim with 14% dying by 1 year post-diagnosis. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Few untreated patients died within 1 month of diagnosis. One-third of patients treated <4 months died soon after completion of treatment, while patients treated longer survived longer, suggesting some patients did not survive to complete treatment. To account for this immortal time bias, landmark analysis will be used to assess the relationship between treatment and survival.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: (1) To define and describe a cohort of patients aged ≥65 years with incident HL from SEER-Medicare data. (2) To identify patient, disease, and system-level factors associated with initial treatment for HL. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: This retrospective cohort study utilized SEER-Medicare data from 1999-2014. Patients with incident classical HL were identified using SEER registry histology groupings. The cohort was restricted to those with Medicare Part A and B fee-for-service for 3 months prior to and 1 year after diagnosis (or until date of death) in order to fully capture claims for outpatient chemotherapy. Patients were excluded for the following reasons: missing month of HL diagnosis; unknown diagnostic confirmation; reporting from autopsy or death certificate; or another cancer diagnosis +/− 2 years of the HL diagnosis. Demographic and disease characteristics were defined based on SEER registry data. Broad treatment categories were defined using SEER data, while detailed treatment categories will be defined based on Medicare claims. Length of follow-up was defined as the number of months until the earliest of the following: death; end of continuous Medicare Part A and B fee-for-service enrollment; or the end of the available data (12/31/2014). Demographic, disease, and preliminary treatment characteristics were described for the cohort. Future analyses will explore patient and disease factors, including comorbidities and an estimate of frailty, as well as system-level factors associated with initial treatment of HL. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: We identified 2909 patients meeting eligibility for the cohort. The median length of follow-up was 22 months (Q1=5, Q3=62). Median age was 75.9 years (Q1=70, Q3=81), 49.6% were female, and 82.6% were non-Hispanic/White. Only 11.5% of patients were in rural or non-urban areas. 13.8% of patients were dual eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid. Nodular sclerosis was the most common histology (35.2%), followed by mixed cellularity (21.1%); 36.5% had histology that was not otherwise specified. Patients were evenly distributed across Ann Arbor Stage (21.8% with I; 22.3% with II; 25.8% with III; 24.2% with IV; 6% unknown). B symptoms were present in 35.2% of patients, absent in 39.6%, and unknown in 25.2%. Neither tumor bulk nor international prognostic score were available via SEER registry data. According to SEER registry data, most patients received some treatment for their HL (81.9%) and 75% of those patients initiated treatment within one month of diagnosis. 72% of patients died with median time to death of 9 months (Q1=3, Q3=43). DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: We successfully identified and described a cohort of 2909 older patients with incident HL from the SEER-Medicare data. This provides a unique opportunity to study this cohort in a large, representative dataset with nearly 15 years of follow up. Future analysis will help us to better understand treatment patterns of HL in older patients and factors associated with treatment. These results can then be used to help improve care decisions and clinical outcomes.

The compositions of feldspar pairs crystallized from stoichiometric alkali feldspar gels with water at PH2O ≈ 1 kbar in runs of up to 3000 hours' duration vary with Na:K in the starting material. This is because, for most bulk compositions, rapid nucleation in the gel leads to growth of one feldspar phase outside the solvus. The composition of this initial feldspar phase can be thought of as reflecting the configuration of the liquidus-solidus curves in the system Ab-Or. In general, the attainment of the stable equilibrium solvus (binodal) requires that one phase approach the binodal from outside; for compositions with < 30 mole % Or this phase becomes more potassic with time, with > 30 mole % Or, more sodic. Homogeneous gels of bulk composition Ab70Or30 initially crystallize feldspar pairs inside the binodal, which rapidly (< 17 hours) unmix to define a solvus-like curve (probably the spinodal, with an apparent critical point at 602 °C and 31 mole % Or) and then unmix slowly, giving a solvus after 3000 hours with a critical point at 657 °C and 36 mole % Or.

Because this curve has been approached from two directions it is the best approximation to the binodal (metastable only with respect to Al-Si order) obtained. It is similar to the 2 kbar ‘peralkaline’ solvus of Orville, 1963, provided an adjustment for pressure of 16 °C/kbar is made. Differences between solvi determined by Luth and Tuttle (1966) for ‘non-stoichiometric’ bulk compositions may reflect differences in initial crystallization behaviour, as may the breaks in the solvus limbs suggested by Luth et al. (1974).