Objectives: This study sought to identify potential
predictive variables of death within 6 months in patients with advanced
Methods: Investigators enrolled a consecutive series of
patients with advanced AIDS admitted to a skilled nursing facility in New
York City over a 1-year period. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and
outcome data were abstracted from medical records using a standardized
data collection instrument.
Results: Of the 152 patients enrolled during the study
period, 61 patients (40%) died within 6 months from date of admission.
Serum albumin, percent deviation from ideal body weight, and number of
comorbidities at the time of admission proved to be the best combination
of predictors of death within 6 months.
Significance of results: The decrease in AIDS mortality over
the past decade, along with an increase in prevalence due to longer
survival, has been attributed primarily to the successful use of highly
active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). HAART regimens, however, can also
produce both short-term adverse effects and long-term complications. The
prognostic model developed by this study may be useful in guiding
treatment decisions in patients with advanced AIDS for whom a more
palliative care plan may be sought.