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Twin 5-month seasonal forecast experiments are performed to predict the September 2018 mean and minimum ice extent using the fully coupled Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). In the control run, ensemble forecasts are initialized from the operational US Navy Global Ocean Forecasting System (GOFS) 3.1 but do not assimilate ice thickness data. Another set of forecasts are initialized from the same GOFS 3.1 fields but with sea ice thickness derived from CryoSat-2 (CS2). The Navy ESPC ensemble mean September 2018 minimum sea ice extent initialized with GOFS 3.1 ice thickness was over-predicted by 0.68 M km2 (5.27 M km2) vs the ensemble forecasts initialized with CS2 ice thickness that had an error of 0.40 M km2 (4.99 M km2), a 43% reduction in error. The September mean integrated ice edge error shows a 18% improvement for the Pan-Arctic with the CS2 data vs the control forecasts. Comparison against upward looking sonar ice thickness in the Beaufort Sea reveals a lower bias and RMSE with the CS2 forecasts at all three moorings. Ice concentration at these locations is also improved, but neither set of forecasts show ice free conditions as observed at moorings A and D.
The assessment of sexual offenders consists of the systematic collection of clinically relevant information in order to detect clinical problems and to provide clear treatment targets. A key but neglected issue in the area of sexual offending concerns the role of individual case formulations in the determination of offenders' treatment needs. In this paper, we investigate the relative strengths and weaknesses of manual-based treatment (MBT) and formulation-based treatment (FBT) for sex offenders. On the one hand, FBT has the advantages of greater flexibility and a more individualistic focus, and arguably is better equipped to deal with more complex clinical presentations. On the other hand, MBT has the advantages of standardisation and less reliance on clinicians' (flawed) judgement, and may be a more efficient use of scarce resources. We conclude that clinicians should initially provide manual-based treatment rather than that based on individualised case formulations. However, we also suggest that there are at least four situations where FBT represents a valuable strategy, namely when confronted with particularly complex or unusual cases, when standardised treatment has failed, or when there are significant threats to the therapeutic relationship. Finally, we briefly discuss some possibilities for research, and caution that our mixed model is only proposed as a temporary solution and that ultimately any model concerning treatment selection needs to be empirically based and conceptually defensible.
This study focused on empathic and prosocial orientations in preschool children who vary in externalizing problems. Children were categorized as low, moderate, or high risk for developing disruptive behavior disorders, depending on severity of current behavior problems. Hypothetical and real encounters with others in distress were used to examine children's affect, behavior, autonomic activity, and social cognitions. When children witnessed someone in distress, empathic concern and prosocial behaviors were present at similar levels for all risk groups. However, moderate and high-risk children were less able than low-risk children to remain positively engaged with distress victims. Girls showed more prosocial behavior than boys, and boys showed more anger than girls. During sadness mood inductions to assess autonomic activity, risk groups did not differ on heart rate or vagal tone. Girls showed higher skin conductance than boys, with high-risk girls showing the highest levels. Higher heart rate (and heart rate deceleration) predicted empathic concern and prosocial behavior, whereas lower heart rate was associated with aggression and avoidance, irrespective of risk. Although biological correlates of emotions and behaviors that reflect caring versus indifference to others' distress are identified, they do not support an early direct link to externalizing psychopathologies.
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