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Attitudes, and in some cases legislation, make it decreasingly acceptable to admit people younger than 18 years to adult psychiatric inpatient units. One strategy to reduce the number of under 18s admitted to adult psychiatric units is the commissioning of specialist Child and Adolescent Mental Health (CAMHS) inpatient units.
Map the flow of admissions toacute adult psychiatric inpatient units and paediatric medical units in the years before and after the opening of specialist CAMHS inpatient units.
Determine if opening CAMHS inpatient increases or decreases the flow of admissions to acute adult psychiatric inpatient units and paediatric medical units
Analysis of statewide admission data for under 18s to specialist CAMHS inpatient units, acute adult psychiatric inpatient units, and paediatric medical units for the period January 2001 to December 2013 in New South Wales, Australia.
Five of 8 health districts experienced an increase in juvenile admissions to adult units in the year of opening a CAMHS unit. Admissions to related paediatric medical units increased in 3 of 7 health districts. Admissions to adult and paediatric units rose with time but there was no interaction between time and health district type (with/without CAMHS unit).
Opening CAMHS units may temporarily increase the number of juveniles admitted to adult units, but does not influence the flow of patients to non-CAMHS facilities in the longer term. CAMHS units appear to fulfil an additional as opposed to replacement role in the care pathway for young people with mental illness.
Some UK insurers have been using real-world economic scenarios for more than 30 years. Popular approaches have included random walks, time series models, arbitrage-free models with added risk premiums or 1-year Value at Risk distribution fits. Based on interviews with experienced practitioners as well as historical documents and meeting minutes, this paper traces historical model evolution in the United Kingdom and abroad. We examine the possible catalysts for changes in modelling practice with a particular emphasis on regulatory and socio-cultural influences. We apply past lessons to provide some guidance to the direction of capital market modelling in future, which has been key for business and strategy decisions.
Communication deviance (CD) reflects features of the content or manner of a person's speech that may confuse the listener and inhibit the establishment of a shared focus of attention. The construct was developed in the context of the study of familial risks for psychosis based on hypotheses regarding its effects during childhood. It is not known whether parental CD is associated with nonverbal parental behaviors that may be important in early development. This study explored the association between CD in a cohort of mothers (n = 287) at 32 weeks gestation and maternal sensitivity with infants at 29 weeks in a standard play procedure. Maternal CD predicted lower overall maternal sensitivity (B = –.385; p < .001), and the effect was somewhat greater for sensitivity to infant distress (B = –.514; p < .001) than for sensitivity to nondistress (B = –.311; p < .01). After controlling for maternal age, IQ and depression, and for socioeconomic deprivation, the associations with overall sensitivity and sensitivity to distress remained significant. The findings provide new pointers to intergenerational transmission of vulnerability involving processes implicated in both verbal and nonverbal parental behaviors.
Fomesafen is a protoporphyrinogen oxidase–inhibitor herbicide with an alternative mode of action that provides PRE weed control in strawberry [Fragaria×ananassa (Weston) Duchesne ex Rozier (pro sp.) [chiloensis×virginiana]] produced in a plasticulture setting in Florida. Plasticulture mulch could decrease fomesafen dissipation and increase crop injury in rotational crops. Field experiments were conducted in Balm, FL, to investigate fomesafen persistence and movement in soil in Florida strawberry systems for the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 production cycles. Treatments included fomesafen preplant at 0, 0.42, and 0.84 kg ai ha−1. Soil samples were taken under the plastic from plots treated with fomesafen at 0.42 kg ha−1 throughout the production cycle. Fomesafen did not injure strawberry or decrease yield. Fomesafen concentration data for the 0.0- to 0.1-m soil depth were described using a three-parameter logistic function. The fomesafen 50% dissipation times were 37 and 47 d for the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 production cycles, respectively. At the end of the study, fomesafen was last detected in the 0.0- to 0.1-m depth soil at 167 and 194 d after treatment in the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 production cycles, respectively. Fomesafen concentration was less than 25 ppb on any sampling date for 0.1- to 0.2-m and 0.2- to 0.3-m depths. Fomesafen concentration decreased significantly after strawberry was transplanted and likely leached during overhead and drip irrigation used during the crop establishment.
The discovery of the first electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational wave signal has generated follow-up observations by over 50 facilities world-wide, ushering in the new era of multi-messenger astronomy. In this paper, we present follow-up observations of the gravitational wave event GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart SSS17a/DLT17ck (IAU label AT2017gfo) by 14 Australian telescopes and partner observatories as part of Australian-based and Australian-led research programs. We report early- to late-time multi-wavelength observations, including optical imaging and spectroscopy, mid-infrared imaging, radio imaging, and searches for fast radio bursts. Our optical spectra reveal that the transient source emission cooled from approximately 6 400 K to 2 100 K over a 7-d period and produced no significant optical emission lines. The spectral profiles, cooling rate, and photometric light curves are consistent with the expected outburst and subsequent processes of a binary neutron star merger. Star formation in the host galaxy probably ceased at least a Gyr ago, although there is evidence for a galaxy merger. Binary pulsars with short (100 Myr) decay times are therefore unlikely progenitors, but pulsars like PSR B1534+12 with its 2.7 Gyr coalescence time could produce such a merger. The displacement (~2.2 kpc) of the binary star system from the centre of the main galaxy is not unusual for stars in the host galaxy or stars originating in the merging galaxy, and therefore any constraints on the kick velocity imparted to the progenitor are poor.
Chronic fatigue syndrome is likely to be a heterogeneous condition. Previous studies have empirically defined subgroups using combinations of clinical and biological variables. We aimed to explore the heterogeneity of chronic fatigue syndrome.
We used baseline data from the PACE trial, which included 640 participants with chronic fatigue syndrome. Variable reduction, using a combination of clinical knowledge and principal component analyses, produced a final dataset of 26 variables for 541 patients. Latent class analysis was then used to empirically define subgroups.
The most statistically significant and clinically recognizable model comprised five subgroups. The largest, ‘core’ subgroup (33% of participants), had relatively low scores across all domains and good self-efficacy. A further three subgroups were defined by: the presence of mood disorders (21%); the presence of features of other functional somatic syndromes (such as fibromyalgia or irritable bowel syndrome) (21%); or by many symptoms – a group which combined features of both of the above (14%). The smallest ‘avoidant–inactive’ subgroup was characterized by physical inactivity, belief that symptoms were entirely physical in nature, and fear that they indicated harm (11%). Differences in the severity of fatigue and disability provided some discriminative validation of the subgroups.
In addition to providing further evidence for the heterogeneity of chronic fatigue syndrome, the subgroups identified may aid future research into the important aetiological factors of specific subtypes of chronic fatigue syndrome and the development of more personalized treatment approaches.
When children have marked problems with motor coordination, they often have problems with attention and impulse control. Here, we map the neuroanatomic substrate of motor coordination in childhood and ask whether this substrate differs in the presence of concurrent symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).
Participants were 226 children. All completed Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fifth edition (DSM-5)-based assessment of ADHD symptoms and standardized tests of motor coordination skills assessing aiming/catching, manual dexterity and balance. Symptoms of developmental coordination disorder (DCD) were determined using parental questionnaires. Using 3 Tesla magnetic resonance data, four latent neuroanatomic variables (for the cerebral cortex, cerebellum, basal ganglia and thalamus) were extracted and mapped onto each motor coordination skill using partial least squares pathway modeling.
The motor coordination skill of aiming/catching was significantly linked to latent variables for both the cerebral cortex (t = 4.31, p < 0.0001) and the cerebellum (t = 2.31, p = 0.02). This effect was driven by the premotor/motor cortical regions and the superior cerebellar lobules. These links were not moderated by the severity of symptoms of inattention, hyperactivity and impulsivity. In categorical analyses, the DCD group showed atypical reduction in the volumes of these regions. However, the group with DCD alone did not differ significantly from those with DCD and co-morbid ADHD.
The superior cerebellar lobules and the premotor/motor cortex emerged as pivotal neural substrates of motor coordination in children. The dimensions of these motor coordination regions did not differ significantly between those who had DCD, with or without co-morbid ADHD.
This paper is a report from the Extreme Events Working Party. The paper considers some of the difficulties in calculating capital buffers to cover potential losses. This paper considers the reasons why a purely mechanical approach to calculating capital buffers may bot be possible or justified. A range of tools and techniques is presented to help address some of the difficulties identified.
Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles had far-reaching effects on Northern Hemisphere and tropical climate systems during the last glacial period, yet the climatic response to D–O cycles in western North America is controversial, especially prior to 55 ka. We document changes in precipitation along the western slope of the central Sierra Nevada during early Marine Oxygen Isotope Stages (MIS) 3 and 4 (55–67 ka) from a U-series dated speleothem record from McLean's Cave. The timing of our multi-proxy geochemical dataset is coeval with D–O interstadials (15–18) and stadials, including Heinrich Event 6. The McLean's Cave stalagmite indicates warmer and drier conditions during Greenland interstadials (GISs 15–18), signified by elevated δ18O, δ13C, reflectance, and trace element concentrations, and less radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr. Our record extends evidence of a strong linkage between high-latitude warming and reduced precipitation in western North America to early MIS 3 and MIS 4. This record shows that the linkage persists in diverse global climate states, and documents the nature of the climatic response in central California to Heinrich Event 6.
Pain is a common symptom of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). We investigated the effects of the treatments used in the PACE trial [cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), graded exercise therapy (GET), adaptive pacing therapy (APT) and specialist medical care (SMC)] on pain in CFS.
We compared pain outcomes including individual painful symptoms, taken from the CDC criteria for CFS and co-morbid fibromyalgia. We modelled outcomes adjusting for baseline variables with multiple linear regression.
Significantly less frequent muscle pain was reported by patients following treatment with CBT compared to SMC (mean difference = 0.38 unit change in frequency, p = 0.02), GET versus SMC (0.42, p = 0.01) and GET versus APT (0.37, p = 0.01). Significantly less joint pain was reported following CBT versus APT (0.35, p = 0.02) and GET versus APT (0.36, p = 0.02). Co-morbid fibromyalgia was less frequent following GET versus SMC (0.03, p = 0.03). The effect sizes of these differences varied between 0.25 and 0.31 for muscle pain and 0.24 and 0.26 for joint pain. Treatment effects on pain were independent of ‘change in fatigue’.
CBT and GET were more effective in reducing the frequency of both muscle and joint pain than APT and SMC. When compared to SMC, GET also reduced the frequency of co-morbid fibromyalgia; the size of this effect on pain was small.
Co-morbid major depression occurs in approximately 10% of people suffering from a chronic medical condition such as cancer. Systematic integrated management that includes both identification and treatment has been advocated. However, we lack information on the cost-effectiveness of this combined approach, as published evaluations have focused solely on the systematic (collaborative care) treatment stage. We therefore aimed to use the best available evidence to estimate the cost-effectiveness of systematic integrated management (both identification and treatment) compared with usual practice, for patients attending specialist cancer clinics.
We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision analytic model structured to reflect both the identification and treatment processes. Evidence was taken from reviews of relevant clinical trials and from observational studies, together with data from a large depression screening service. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were undertaken to determine the effects of variations in depression incidence rates, time horizons and patient characteristics.
Systematic integrated depression management generated more costs than usual practice, but also more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £11 765 per QALY. This finding was robust to tests of uncertainty and variation in key model parameters.
Systematic integrated management of co-morbid major depression in cancer patients is likely to be cost-effective at widely accepted threshold values and may be a better way of generating QALYs for cancer patients than some existing medical and surgical treatments. It could usefully be applied to other chronic medical conditions.