A clinical tool to estimate the risk of treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) in people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) would inform early detection of TRS and overcome the delay of up to 5 years in starting TRS medication.

To develop and evaluate a model that could predict the risk of TRS in routine clinical practice.

We used data from two UK-based FEP cohorts (GAP and AESOP-10) to develop and internally validate a prognostic model that supports identification of patients at high-risk of TRS soon after FEP diagnosis. Using sociodemographic and clinical predictors, a model for predicting risk of TRS was developed based on penalised logistic regression, with missing data handled using multiple imputation. Internal validation was undertaken via bootstrapping, obtaining optimism-adjusted estimates of the model's performance. Interviews and focus groups with clinicians were conducted to establish clinically relevant risk thresholds and understand the acceptability and perceived utility of the model.

We included seven factors in the prediction model that are predominantly assessed in clinical practice in patients with FEP. The model predicted treatment resistance among the 1081 patients with reasonable accuracy; the model's C-statistic was 0.727 (95% CI 0.723–0.732) prior to shrinkage and 0.687 after adjustment for optimism. Calibration was good (expected/observed ratio: 0.999; calibration-in-the-large: 0.000584) after adjustment for optimism.

We developed and internally validated a prediction model with reasonably good predictive metrics. Clinicians, patients and carers were involved in the development process. External validation of the tool is needed followed by co-design methodology to support implementation in early intervention services.

As an accelerated cognitive decline frequently heralds onset of severe neuropathological disorders, understanding the source of individual differences in withstanding the onslaught of cognitive ageing may highlight how best cognitive abilities may be retained into advanced age.

Using a population representative sample of 5088 adults aged •50 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we investigated relationships of polygenic predisposition to general cognition with a rate of change in cognition during a 10-year follow-up period. Polygenic predisposition was measured with polygenic scores for general cognition (GC-PGS). Cognition was measured employing tests for verbal memory and semantic fluency.

The average baseline memory score was 11.1 (s.d. = 2.9) and executive function score was 21.5 (s.d. = 5.8). An increase in GC-PGS by one standard deviation (1-s.d.) was associated with a higher baseline verbal memory by an average 0.27 points (95% CI 0.19–0.34, p < 0.001). Similarly, 1-s.d. increase in GC-PGS was associated with a higher semantic fluency score at baseline in the entire sample (β = 0.45, 95% CI 0.27–0.64, p < 0.001). These associations were significant for women and men, and all age groups. Nonetheless, 1-s.d. increase in GC-PGS was not associated with decreases in verbal memory nor semantic fluency during follow-up in the entire sample, as well stratified models by sex and age.

Although common genetic variants associated with general cognition additively are associated with a stable surplus to cognition in adults, a polygenic predisposition to general cognition is not associated with age-related cognitive decline during a 10-year follow-up.

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and genetic liability are important risk factors for depression and inflammation. However, little is known about the gene−environment (G × E) mechanisms underlying their aetiology. For the first time, we tested the independent and interactive associations of ACEs and polygenic scores of major depressive disorder (MDD-PGS) and C-reactive protein (CRP-PGS) with longitudinal trajectories of depression and chronic inflammation in older adults.

Data were drawn from the English longitudinal study of ageing (N~3400). Retrospective information on ACEs was collected in wave3 (2006/07). We calculated a cumulative risk score of ACEs and also assessed distinct dimensions separately. Depressive symptoms were ascertained on eight occasions, from wave1 (2002/03) to wave8 (2016/17). CRP was measured in wave2 (2004/05), wave4 (2008/09), and wave6 (2012/13). The associations of the risk factors with group-based depressive-symptom trajectories and repeated exposure to high CRP (i.e. ⩾3 mg/L) were tested using multinomial and ordinal logistic regression.

All types of ACEs were independently associated with high depressive-symptom trajectories (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.30–1.60) and inflammation (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.07–1.09). The risk of high depressive-symptom trajectories (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.28–1.70) and inflammation (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.04) was also higher for participants with higher MDD-PGS. G×E analyses revealed that the associations between ACEs and depressive symptoms were larger among participants with higher MDD-PGS (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.04–1.23). ACEs were also more strongly related to inflammation in participants with higher CRP-PGS (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01–1.03).

ACEs and polygenic susceptibility were independently and interactively associated with elevated depressive symptoms and chronic inflammation, highlighting the clinical importance of assessing both ACEs and genetic risk factors to design more targeted interventions.

Patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) tend to lack insight, which is linked to poor outcomes. The effect size of previous treatments on insight changes in SSD has been small. Metacognitive interventions may improve insight in SSD, although this remains unproved.

We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to examine the effects of metacognitive interventions designed for SSD, namely Metacognitive Training (MCT) and Metacognitive Reflection and Insight Therapy (MERIT), on changes in cognitive and clinical insight at post-treatment and at follow-up.

Twelve RCTs, including 10 MCT RCTs (n = 717 participants) and two MERIT trials (n = 90), were selected, totalling N = 807 participants. Regarding cognitive insight six RCTs (n = 443) highlighted a medium effect of MCT on self-reflectiveness at post-treatment, d = 0.46, p < 0.01, and at follow-up, d = 0.30, p < 0.01. There was a small effect of MCT on self-certainty at post-treatment, d = −0.23, p = 0.03, but not at follow-up. MCT was superior to controls on an overall Composite Index of cognitive insight at post-treatment, d = 1.11, p < 0.01, and at follow-up, d = 0.86, p = 0.03, although we found evidence of heterogeneity. Of five MCT trials on clinical insight (n = 244 participants), which could not be meta-analysed, four of them favoured MCT compared v. control. The two MERIT trials reported conflicting results.

Metacognitive interventions, particularly Metacognitive Training, appear to improve insight in patients with SSD, especially cognitive insight shortly after treatment. Further long-term RCTs are needed to establish whether these metacognitive interventions-related insight changes are sustained over a longer time period and result in better outcomes.

Reducing hospitalisation and length of stay (LOS) in hospital following first episode psychosis (FEP) is important, yet reliable measures of these outcomes and their moderators are lacking. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the proportion of FEP cases who were hospitalised after their first contact with services and the LOS in a hospital during follow-up.

Studies were identified from a systematic search across major electronic databases from inception to October 2017. Random effects meta-analyses and meta-regression analyses were conducted.

81 longitudinal studies encompassing data for 23 280 FEP patients with an average follow-up length of 7 years were included. 55% (95% CI 50.3–60.5%) of FEP cases were hospitalised at least once during follow-up with the pooled average LOS of 116.7 days (95% CI 95.1–138.3). Older age of illness onset and being in a stable relationship were associated with a lower proportion of people who were hospitalised. While the proportion of hospitalised patients has not decreased over time, LOS has, with the sharpest reduction in the latest time period. The proportion of patients hospitalised during follow-up was highest in Australia and New Zealand (78.4%) compared to Europe (58.1%) and North America (48.0%); and lowest in Asia (32.5%). Black ethnicity and longer duration of untreated psychosis were associated with longer LOS; while less severe psychotic symptoms at baseline were associated with shorter LOS.

One in two FEP cases required hospitalisation at least once during a 7-year follow-up with an average length of hospitalisation of 4 months during this period. LOS has declined over time, particularly in those countries in which it was previously longest.

Jumping to conclusions (JTC), which is the proneness to require less information before forming beliefs or making a decision, has been related to formation and maintenance of delusions. Using data from the National Institute of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre Genetics and Psychosis (GAP) case–control study of first-episode psychosis (FEP), we set out to test whether the presence of JTC would predict poor clinical outcome at 4 years.

One-hundred and twenty-three FEP patients were assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) and the probabilistic reasoning ‘Beads’ Task at the time of recruitment. The sample was split into two groups based on the presence of JTC bias. Follow-up data over an average of 4 years were obtained concerning clinical course and outcomes (remission, intervention of police, use of involuntary treatment – the Mental Health Act (MHA) – and inpatient days).

FEP who presented JTC at baseline were more likely during the follow-up period to be detained under the MHA [adjusted OR 15.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.92–83.54, p = 0.001], require intervention by the police (adjusted OR 14.95, 95% CI 2.68–83.34, p = 0.002) and have longer admissions (adjusted IRR = 5.03, 95% CI 1.91–13.24, p = 0.001). These associations were not accounted for by socio-demographic variables, IQ and symptom dimensions.

JTC in FEP is associated with poorer outcome as indicated and defined by more compulsion police intervention and longer periods of admission. Our findings raise the question of whether the implementation of specific interventions to reduce JTC, such as Metacognition Training, may be a useful addition in early psychosis intervention programmes.

Remission and recovery rates for people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) remain uncertain.

To assess pooled prevalence rates of remission and recovery in FEP and to investigate potential moderators.

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess pooled prevalence rates of remission and recovery in FEP in longitudinal studies with more than 1 year of follow-up data, and conducted meta-regression analyses to investigate potential moderators.

Seventy-nine studies were included representing 19072 patients with FEP. The pooled rate of remission among 12301 individuals with FEP was 58% (60 studies, mean follow-up 5.5 years). Higher remission rates were moderated by studies from more recent years. The pooled prevalence of recovery among 9642 individuals with FEP was 38% (35 studies, mean follow-up 7.2 years). Recovery rates were higher in North America than in other regions.

Remission and recovery rates in FEP may be more favourable than previously thought. We observed stability of recovery rates after the first 2 years, suggesting that a progressive deteriorating course of illness is not typical. Although remission rates have improved over time recovery rates have not, raising questions about the effectiveness of services in achieving improved recovery.