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To aid emergency response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) researchers monitor unplanned school closures (USCs) by conducting online systematic searches (OSS) to identify relevant publicly available reports. We examined the added utility of analyzing Twitter data to improve USC monitoring.
Georgia public school data were obtained from the National Center for Education Statistics. We identified school and district Twitter accounts with 1 or more tweets ever posted (“active”), and their USC-related tweets in the 2015-16 and 2016-17 school years. CDC researchers provided OSS-identified USC reports. Descriptive statistics, univariate, and multivariable logistic regression were computed.
A majority (1,864/2,299) of Georgia public schools had, or were in a district with, active Twitter accounts in 2017. Among these schools, 638 were identified with USCs in 2015-16 (Twitter only, 222; OSS only, 2015; both, 201) and 981 in 2016-17 (Twitter only, 178; OSS only, 107; both, 696). The marginal benefit of adding Twitter as a data source was an increase in the number of schools identified with USCs by 53% (222/416) in 2015-16 and 22% (178/803) in 2016-17.
Policy-makers may wish to consider the potential value of incorporating Twitter into existing USC monitoring systems.
Guangxi, a province in southwestern China, has the second highest reported number of HIV/AIDS cases in China. This study aimed to develop an accurate and effective model to describe the tendency of HIV and to predict its incidence in Guangxi. HIV incidence data of Guangxi from 2005 to 2016 were obtained from the database of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, generalised regression neural network (GRNN) models and exponential smoothing (ES) were used to fit the incidence data. Data from 2015 and 2016 were used to validate the most suitable models. The model performances were evaluated by evaluating metrics, including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. The LSTM model had the lowest MSE when the N value (time step) was 12. The most appropriate ARIMA models for incidence in 2015 and 2016 were ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 2)12 and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) (1, 1, 2)12, respectively. The accuracy of GRNN and ES models in forecasting HIV incidence in Guangxi was relatively poor. Four performance metrics of the LSTM model were all lower than the ARIMA, GRNN and ES models. The LSTM model was more effective than other time-series models and is important for the monitoring and control of local HIV epidemics.
We examined whether undergraduates’ achievement goal orientations could be represented as profiles and whether profiles were linked to self-reported motivation, epistemic beliefs and academic achievement. Data collected during an undergraduate course were analyzed using a clustering technique. Using the 2 × 2 goal model (Elliot & McGregor, 2001), we identified five achievement goal profiles. Our findings suggest the interaction of goal orientations supports varying interpretations of students’ motivation and learning beliefs. Although no statistically significant differences in achievement were found across clusters, a High-Approach-Low-Avoidance cluster displayed an adaptive profile that was most positive towards learning and self but least anxious about exams. In contrast, a Performance-Avoidance-Dominant cluster demonstrated a maladaptive pattern of lowest self-efficacy and task value, and higher anxiety. Further, High-Approach-Low-Avoidance and Low-Performance-Avoidance clusters recognized that knowledge is not simple and authority could be questioned, compared to the other groups.
Compared with traditional stainless steels, high nitrogen stainless steels (HNSS), have been widely used due to their high strength, toughness along with excellent corrosion resistance and low cost, formed by partial replacement of Ni (austenite-forming element) by N. The evolution of the microstructure of a Cr19Mn19Mo2N0.7 stainless steel is investigated after solution treatment at 1010, 1060, 1200 or 1250°C for 30min. A complex multilayer structure has been found under a negative pressure vacuum. A white ferritic layer at the surface is formed, and a subsurface layer with full austenitic structure and a bulk microstructure comprising of austenite and ferrite are detected. With increasing solution temperature, the surface layer thickness increases. The formation of the multilayer structure is attributed to an outward diffusion, a diffusive retardation and an abnormal accumulation of nitrogen during solution treatment.
Recent progress in microdissection and in DNA sequencing has facilitated the subsampling of multi-focal cancers in organs such as the liver in several hundred spots, helping to determine the pattern of mutations in each of these spots. This has led to the construction of genealogies of the primary, secondary, tertiary, and so forth, foci of the tumor. These studies have led to diverse conclusions concerning the Darwinian (selective) or neutral evolution in cancer. Mathematical models of the development of multi-focal tumors have been devised to support these claims. We offer a model for the development of a multi-focal tumor: it is a mathematically rigorous refinement of a model of Ling et al. (2015). Guided by numerical studies and simulations, we show that the rigorous model, in the form of an infinite-type branching process, displays distributions of tumor size which have heavy tails and moments that become infinite in finite time. To demonstrate these points, we obtain bounds on the tails of the distributions of the process and an infinite series expansion for the first moments. In addition to its inherent mathematical interest, the model is corroborated by recent literature on apparent super-exponential growth in cancer metastases.
Coinfection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and viral hepatitis is associated with high morbidity and mortality in the absence of clinical management, making identification of these cases crucial. We examined characteristics of HIV and viral hepatitis coinfections by using surveillance data from 15 US states and two cities. Each jurisdiction used an automated deterministic matching method to link surveillance data for persons with reported acute and chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections, to persons reported with HIV infection. Of the 504 398 persons living with diagnosed HIV infection at the end of 2014, 2.0% were coinfected with HBV and 6.7% were coinfected with HCV. Of the 269 884 persons ever reported with HBV, 5.2% were reported with HIV. Of the 1 093 050 persons ever reported with HCV, 4.3% were reported with HIV. A greater proportion of persons coinfected with HIV and HBV were males and blacks/African Americans, compared with those with HIV monoinfection. Persons who inject drugs represented a greater proportion of those coinfected with HIV and HCV, compared with those with HIV monoinfection. Matching HIV and viral hepatitis surveillance data highlights epidemiological characteristics of persons coinfected and can be used to routinely monitor health status and guide state and national public health interventions.
The objective of this Research Communication was to use polymerase chain reaction-single stranded conformational polymorphism (PCR-SSCP) analysis to investigate a region of the bovine TLR4 gene (TLR4) in pasture-fed New Zealand (NZ) Holstein-Friesian × Jersey (HF × J) cross dairy cows and to determine whether gene variation was associated with milk production traits. Genetic variation was observed, with two variants (A and B) containing a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) (c.2021C/T) that was non-synonymous and putatively results in a p.Thr674Ile substitution in the transmembrane/cytoplasmic domain of TLR4. Variant A was associated with higher milk yields, but lower milk fat percentages, whereas B was associated with lower milk yields, but higher fat and protein percentages. Cows of genotype AA produced more milk than AB or BB cows, but the milk produced by AA cows contained less fat than AB or BB cows.
Salience network (SN) dysconnectivity has been hypothesized to contribute to schizophrenia. Nevertheless, little is known about the functional and structural dysconnectivity of SN in subjects at risk for psychosis. We hypothesized that SN functional and structural connectivity would be disrupted in subjects with At-Risk Mental State (ARMS) and would be associated with symptom severity and disease progression.
We examined 87 ARMS and 37 healthy participants using both resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and diffusion tensor imaging. Group differences in SN functional and structural connectivity were examined using a seed-based approach and tract-based spatial statistics. Subject-level functional connectivity measures and diffusion indices of disrupted regions were correlated with CAARMS scores and compared between ARMS with and without transition to psychosis.
ARMS subjects exhibited reduced functional connectivity between the left ventral anterior insula and other SN regions. Reduced fractional anisotropy (FA) and axial diffusivity were also found along white-matter tracts in close proximity to regions of disrupted functional connectivity, including frontal-striatal-thalamic circuits and the cingulum. FA measures extracted from these disrupted white-matter regions correlated with individual symptom severity in the ARMS group. Furthermore, functional connectivity between the bilateral insula and FA at the forceps minor were further reduced in subjects who transitioned to psychosis after 2 years.
Our findings support the insular dysconnectivity of the proximal SN hypothesis in the early stages of psychosis. Further developed, the combined structural and functional SN assays may inform the prognosis of persons at-risk for psychosis.
In order to estimate influenza-associated excess mortality in southern Brazil, we applied Serfling regression models to monthly mortality data from 1980 to 2008 for pneumonia/influenza- and respiratory/circulatory-coded deaths for all ages and for those aged ⩾60 years. According to viral data, 73·5% of influenza viruses were detected between April and August in southern Brazil. There was no clear influenza season for northern Brazil. In southern Brazil, influenza-associated excess mortality was 1·4/100 000 for all ages and 9·2/100 000 person-years for persons aged ⩾60 years using underlying pneumonia/influenza-coded deaths and 10·0/100 000 for all ages and 86·6/100 000 person-years for persons aged ⩾60 years using underlying respiratory/circulatory-coded deaths. Influenza-associated excess mortality rates for southern Brazil are similar to those published for other countries. Our data support the need for continued influenza surveillance to guide vaccination campaigns to age groups most affected by this virus in Brazil.
Five tropical multi-purpose tree species (MPTS), Enterolobium cyclocarpum, Moringa oleifera, Millettia griffoniana, Pterocarpus santalinoides and Treculia Africana, and one exotic species (Leucaena leucocephala), which acted as the control, planted in a randomized complete block design, were selected to evaluate the potentials as feed supplements for herds in dry seasons of south-western Nigeria. Samples of the MPTS leaves were collected in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008, weighed, dried and milled for estimation of biomass production, chemical analysis and measurement of in vitro gas production. Results showed significant differences (P < 0·001) in the biomass production of the MPTS. E. cyclocarpum consistently recorded the highest biomass production, height and collar diameter throughout the experimental period. There were also differences (P ⩽ 0·001) in dry matter (DM), crude protein (CP), ether extract (EE) and ash contents of the MPTS across species and years after planting. M. oleifera recorded the highest CP content of 240 g/kg DM. Interactions were observed between species and year for neutral detergent fibre (NDFom), acid detergent fibre (ADFom) and lignin contents of the MPTS. M. griffoniana and M. oleifera had lower tannin contents, whereas E. cyclocarpum, P. santalinoides, T. africana and L. leucocephala had higher tannin contents. The values reported for mineral contents showed that their levels in the MPTS were adequate for ruminants and there were no differences in the contents of most minerals. In vitro gas production results showed that the potential gas production ‘b’ was highest in M. griffoniana and lowest in P. santalinoides and there were species and year interactions (P ⩽ 0·001) for volatile fatty acid profiles of the supernatant after 96 h incubation. The estimated organic matter digestibility (OMD) and metabolizable energy (ME) of the MPTS were generally high. The high biomass production, CP and low fibre contents, as well as in vitro fermentation characteristics found for the MPTS evaluated in the current study suggest that these are better alternatives in comparison with L. leucocephala. It can be concluded that the MPTS evaluated have potential as sources of feed supplements for ruminants in dry seasons, especially in south western Nigeria.
In this study, novel Si2Sb2Te6 phase change material is investigated in detail for the phase change memory application using transmission electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The phenomenon that Te diffuses to the film surface during phase switching and successively evaporates out has been confirmed. The phase change memory cells employing Si2Sb2Te6 and Si3Sb2Te3 materials are fabricated and programmed. For the Si2Sb2Te6-based cell a data endurance of 5×105 cycles is achieved with a failure mode resembling reset stuck, which can be attributed to the migration of Tellurium during the operation cycles. It means that a thermally stable material system of SixSb2Te3 is preferred for the PCM applications.
Pseudorabies has become endemic and represents a widespread problem for pig production in the world, causing great economic losses associated with reproductive failure and neonatal mortality in the pig industry. Most diseases are the results of mutations of functional genes. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from the coding regions of the mediators of pro-inflammatory responses or other candidate genes in pigs could indicate their potential involvement in susceptibility or resistance to PrV (pseudorabies virus) infection. There have been no previous association studies with candidate host genes that may influence PrV phenotypic traits. In order to perform association studies to identify genes contributing to PrV phenotypes, the genotypes of five SNPs from four genes (IL10, CXCL12, BAT2 and EHMT2) were determined for 178 sow samples using a high throughput microarray-based methodology. PrV antibodies were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to determine whether there was an association between antibody levels and particular genotypes. The association between SNP genotypes and the PrV antibody levels were analysed using the Duncan method of one-way ANOVA procedure using the SAS (Statistical Analysis Systems) software package. The results showed that the glycoprotein E-ELISA antibody level of pigs with genotypes 11(AA) and 12(AG) was significantly higher than in pigs with genotype 22(GG) (P < 0.05) of SNP in the gene EHMT2-SNP2. The SNP of EHMT2 may be an effective potential tool to identify susceptible and resistant animals when used in conjunction with traditional selection methods.
A GaN/AlGaN multiple-quantum-well structure based on an asymmetric triple-quantum-well repeat unit was grown by molecular beam epitaxy, and its vertical electrical transport characteristics were investigated as a function of temperature. To minimize the density of dislocations and other structural defects providing leakage current paths, homoepitaxial growth on a free-standing GaN substrate was employed. The measured vertical-transport current-voltage characteristics were found to be highly nonlinear, especially at low temperatures, consistent with sequential tunneling through the ground-state subbands of weakly coupled adjacent quantum wells. Furthermore, different turn-on voltages were measured depending on the polarity of the applied bias, in accordance with the asymmetric subband structure of the sample repeat units.
Due to their large conduction-band offsets, GaN/Al(Ga)N quantum wells are currently the subject of extensive research efforts aimed at extending the spectral range of intersubband optoelectronic devices towards shorter and shorter wavelengths. Here we report our recent measurement of optically pumped intersubband light emission from GaN/AlN quantum wells at the record short wavelength of about 2 μm. Nanosecond-scale optical pulses are used to resonantly pump electrons from the ground states to the second excited subbands, followed by radiative relaxation into the first excited subbands. The intersubband origin of the measured photoluminescence is confirmed via an extensive study of its polarization properties and pump wavelength dependence.
The dense granule antigen 4 (GRA4) is known as an immundominant antigen of Toxoplasma gondii and, therefore, is considered as a vaccine candidate. For further evaluation of its vaccine effect, a recombinant plasmid and vaccinia virus, both expressing GRA4, were constructed, and a heterologous prime-boost vaccination regime was performed in a mouse model. The mice immunized with the heterologous prime-boost vaccination regime showed a high level of specific antibody response against GRA4 and a significantly high level of gamma interferon (IFN-γ) production and survived completely against a subsequent challenge infection with a lethal dose of T. gondii. In addition, the formation of cysts was inhibited in the mice vaccinated with the heterologous prime-boost vaccination regime. These results demonstrate that the heterologous prime-boost vaccination regime using DNA and a vaccinia virus, both expressing GRA4, could induce both humoral and cellular immune responses and provide effective protection against lethal acute and chronic T. gondii infections in mice.
We cloned and expressed a novel gene encoding a 32-kDa merozoite protein of Babesia gibsoni (BgP32). The length of nucleotide sequence of the cDNA was 1464 bp with an open reading frame of 969 bp. The truncated recombinant BgP32 (rBgP32) without a signal peptide and C-terminal hydrophobic sequence was expressed in Escherichia coli as a soluble glutathione-S-transferase (GST) fusion protein. Western blotting demonstrated that the native protein was 32-kDa, consistent with molecular weight of the predicted mature polypeptide. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) using rBgP32 detected specific antibodies from 8 days to 541 days post-infection in the sequential sera from a dog experimentally infected with B. gibsoni. Moreover, the antigen did not cross-react with B. canis subspecies and closely related protozoan parasites, indicating that rBgP32 is a specific diagnostic antigen. Analysis of 47 sera taken from dogs with anaemic signs revealed that rBgP32 detected a higher proportion of B. gibsoni seropositive samples (77%) than its previously identified rBgP50 (68%) homologue. These results indicate that the BgP32 is a novel immunodominant antigen of B. gibsoni, and rBgP32 might be useful for diagnosis of B. gibsoni infection.