In November 2000, exit poll interviews with voters in Florida
indicated that Al Gore won the state. As a result, many television
networks declared Gore the winner of Florida, a pivotal state to
winning the presidency in 2000. Only a few hours later, the first
vote tallies from the Florida Secretary of State's office revealed
that George W. Bush was in fact leading in Florida. After 45 days of
recounts and lawsuits, it was clear that the exit polls were wrong;
Bush had won the state by the narrowest of margins. As a result of
the flawed exit poll the media and pollsters scoured and reanalyzed
the methodology used in 2000 to prepare and correct for the 2004
presidential election. The old system, Voter News Service (VNS) was
scrapped entirely, and Edison-Mitofsky Research was chosen to
implement a new and more accurate national exit poll in 2004 by a
consortium of news organizations retained by the Associated Press
called the National Election Pool (NEP). What happened? Exit poll
results from Edison-Mitofsky showed John Kerry ahead in Ohio,
Florida, and New Mexico—all states which he lost to Bush in
2004.Author names are listed
alphabetically. The co-authors were also the co-principal
investigators of the Loyola Marymount University 2005 Los
Angeles Mayoral Exit Poll. Thanks to Salvador Paniagua and Haven
Perez for their tremendous research assistance in implementing
this project and to the more than 120 student researchers who
participated in the exit polling and data entry. Robert Aguinaga
and Antonio Gonzalez of the Southwest Voter Registration and
Education Project also provided valuable assistance in
implementing the poll. Mark Blumenthal, of mysterypollster.com
was instrumental in tracking down exit poll archives.