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We assess Africa's prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend. While fertility rates and dependency ratios in Africa remain high, they have started to decline. According to UN projections, they will fall further in the coming decades such that by the mid-21st century, the ratio of the working age to dependent population will be greater than in Asia, Europe, and Northern America. This projection suggests Africa has considerable potential to enjoy a demographic dividend. Whether and when it actually materializes, and also its magnitude, hinges on policies and institutions in key realms that include macroeconomic management, human capital, trade, governance, and labor and capital markets. Given strong complementarities among these areas, coordinated policies will likely be most effective in generating the momentum needed to pull Africa's economies out of a development trap.
Our position in the Milky Way (MW) is both a blessing and a curse. We are nearby to many star clusters, but the dust that is a product of their very existence obscures them. Also, many massive young clusters are expected to be located near, or across the Galactic Center, where the dust extinction is extreme (AV > 15 mag) and can be better penetrated by infrared photons. This paper reviews the discoveries and the study of new MW massive stars and massive clusters made possible by near infrared observations that are part of the VISTA Variables in the Vía Láctea (VVV) survey. It discusses what the studies of their fundamental parameters have taught us.
The retention and release of liquid water in glacierized basins was modelled with a conceptual, semi-distributed model of the water and ice balance designed for long-term averages with monthly resolution for 100 m elevation bands. Here we present the components of the liquid water balance of 86 mostly glacierized basins on either side of the main Alpine divide between 10 and 13°E in the period 1998–2006 and compare them with the records of 30 basins monitored from 1970 to 1997. Basin average of liquid water retention has maxima in excess of 100 mm per month in May, often followed by maximum release when the retaining snow matrix melts. Glacier storage peaks in August partly due to ice melt and the ensuing filling of the englacial reservoirs and partly on account of a precipitation maximum. These two components combined to a common maximum of storage in summer in the first period 1970–97 and developed two distinct maxima in the warmer period 1998–2006. A further maximum of liquid water storage that was often found in October is most likely due to a peak in precipitation in the southern part of the study region.
The reliability of InAlGaN multiple quantum well LEDs emitting around 308 nm has been investigated. The UV-B LEDs were stressed at constant current and current density, while the heat sink temperature was varied between 15°C and 80°C. The results reveal two different modes of the decrease of the optical power during aging. First, a fast reduction of the optical power within the first 100 h (mode 1) can be observed, followed by a slower degradation for operation times >100 h (mode 2). Mode 1 can be described as an initial degradation activation process which saturates after a certain time, whereas the second degradation mode can be described by a square-root time dependence of the optical power, suggesting a diffusion process to be involved. Both degradation modes are accompanied by changes of the I-V characteristic, particularly the reverse-bias leakage current and the drive voltage. Furthermore, the degradation behavior is strongly influenced by the temperature. Both, the maximum reduction of the optical power and the increase of the leakage current become stronger at higher temperatures.
Knowledge of the spatial snow distribution and its interannual persistence is of interest for a broad spectrum of issues in cryospheric sciences. In this study, snow depths derived from airborne laser scanning are analyzed for interannual persistence of the seasonal snow cover in a partly glacierized mountain area (~36 km2). At the end of five accumulation periods, the snow-covered area varied by 16% of its temporal mean. Mean snow depth of the total area ranged by a factor of two (1.31–2.58 m), with a standard deviation of 0.42 m. Interannual correlation coefficients of snow depth distribution were in the range 0.68–0.84. Of the investigated area, 75% was found to be interannually persistent. The remaining area showed variable snow cover from year to year, caused by occasional avalanches and changes in surface topography as a result of glacier retreat. Snow cover underwent a change from a homogeneous distribution on the former glacier surface to a more heterogeneous snow cover in the recently deglaciated terrain. A geostatistical analysis shows interannual persistence in scaling behavior of snow depth in ice-free terrain with scale break distances at 20 m. Scale-invariant behavior of snow depth is indicated over >100 m on smooth glacier surfaces.
The ongoing retreat of mountain glaciers necessitates the development of future scenarios of glacier runoff. These scenarios are not only governed by future climate scenarios influencing glacier mass balance but also by the glacier volumes, which are subject to melt. Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is a valuable tool for measuring the thickness of mountain glaciers, although ground-based measurements are labour-intensive, so not all glaciers can be surveyed. This study presents the results of GPR surveys on 64 Alpine glaciers, carried out between 1995 and 2010. The glacier areas range from 0.001 to 18.4 km2, and their ice thickness was surveyed with an average density of 36 points km-2. The point measurements were extrapolated manually to derive volume maps. The mean ice thickness varies between 10 and 92 m; the maximum ice thickness is about three times the mean thickness. According to the glacier state recorded in the second glacier inventory, the 64 glaciers cover an area of 223.3 ± 3.6 km2, with a mean thickness of 50 ± 3 m and a glacier volume of 11.9 ± 1.1 km3. The mean maximum ice thickness is 119 ± 5m.
Studies suggest a role for cardiovascular fitness in the prevention of
affective disorders.
Aims
To determine whether cardiovascular fitness at age 18 is associated with
future risk of serious affective illness.
Method
Population-based Swedish cohort study of male conscripts
(n = 1 117 292) born in 1950–1987 with no history of
mental illness who were followed for 3–40 years. Data on cardiovascular
fitness at conscription were linked with national hospital registers to
calculate future risk of depression (requiring in-patient care) and
bipolar disorder.
Results
In fully adjusted models low cardiovascular fitness was associated with
increased risk for serious depression (hazard ratios (HR)=1.96, 95%, CI
1.71–2.23). No such association could be shown for bipolar disorder
(HR=1.11, 95% CI 0.84–1.47).
Conclusions
Lower cardiovascular fitness at age 18 was associated with increased risk
of serious depression in adulthood. These results strengthen the theory
of a cardiovascular contribution to the aetiology of depression.
The design, realization, and characterization of highly efficient powerbars and monolithic microwave integrated circuit (MMIC) high-power amplifiers (HPAs) with AlGaN/GaN high electronic mobility transistors (HEMTs) are presented for the frequency range between 1 and 30 GHz. Packaged powerbars for the frequency range between 1 and 6 GHz have been developed based on a process called GaN50 with a gate length of 0.5 μm. Based on a GaN25 process with a gate length of 0.25 μm, high-power MMIC amplifiers are presented starting from 6 GHz up to advanced X-band amplifiers and robust LNAs in microstrip transmission line technology.
For estimation of the mass balance of an unmeasured glacier, its area distribution with altitude, s (h), generally is the only available quantitative information. The appropriate specific balance profile, b (h), needs to be transferred from a measured glacier, where transfer means modification and adaptation to the topographic and climatic situation of the unmeasured glacier, such as altitude, exposure to sun and wind, or temperature. This study proposes the area median elevation, M, as a parameter of prime importance for the transfer. Using as an example ten Alpine glaciers, the similarity of M and equilibrium-line altitude is quantified and the effect of aspect and surrounding topography is qualitatively suggested. The transfer of b (h) between well-measured glaciers yielded differences in the mean specific balance of 150 mm in the mean of a 10 year period, which corresponds to a change in median altitude by 30 m. Transfer of b (h) with a shift according to median glacier elevation to a basin with 27 glaciers and 23 km2 ice cover agreed to within 10% with elevation changes converted from digital elevation models of 1969 and 1997.
In this study, long-term series of winter mass balances from two neighbouring glaciers in the southern Oetztal Alps, Austria, i.e. Hintereisferner and Vernagtferner, are analyzed with respect to the methods used in their determination. For this purpose, (1) some basic data of field surveys are presented, (2) the influence of different temporal systems is discussed, and (3) the profile, contour and a ‘model’ method based on energy-balance ablation modelling and measured net mass balance are discussed with respect to the reliability of the resulting series. The main findings of the investigations are: (1) The winter mass-balance series for Hintereisferner and Vernagtferner as determined with all applied methods result in a reliable climatologic average of 1000±100mmw.e. (2) When using the profile method, different spatial integration approaches are quite sensitive to the altitudinal coverage and the spatial pattern of observations. (3) The error of the model method occurs randomly, whereas contour as well as profile-method errors are more systematic. (4) Filtered time series from the two glaciers show similar tendencies for the last three decades.
Patients with first-episode schizophrenia appear to respond to lower doses of neuroleptics, and to be more sensitive to developing extrapyramidal side-effects. The authors therefore compared in such patients the efficacy and extrapyramidal tolerability of comparatively low dosages of the atypical neuroleptic risperidone and of the conventional neuroleptic haloperidol. Risperidone was hypothesized to have better extrapyramidal tolerability and efficacy in treating negative symptoms. Patients were randomly assigned under double-blind conditions to receive risperidone (n=143) or haloperidol (n=146) for 8 wk. The primary efficacy criterion was the estimated difference in the mean change in the Positive and Negative Symptom Scale (PANSS) negative score between treatment groups; secondary efficacy criteria were changes on the PANSS total score and other PANSS subscores, and several other measures of psychopathology and general functioning. The primary tolerability criterion was the difference in baseline-adjusted occurrence rates of extrapyramidal side-effects measured with the Simpson–Angus Scale (SAS) compared between treatment groups. The main hypothesis was that risperidone would be superior in terms of improving negative symptoms and lowering the risk of extrapyramidal symptoms. Secondary tolerability criteria were the other extrapyramidal symptoms, measured with the Hillside Akathisia Scale (HAS) and the Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale (AIMS). The average mean daily doses were 3.8 mg (s.d.=1.5) for risperidone and 3.7 mg (s.d.=1.5) for haloperidol. There were similar, significant improvements in both treatment groups in the primary and secondary efficacy criteria. At week 8 nearly all scores of extrapyramidal side-effects indicated a significantly higher prevalence of extrapyramidal side-effects with haloperidol than with risperidone [SAS: risperidone 36.5% of patients; haloperidol 51.5% of patients; likelihood ratio test, χ2(1)=7.8, p=0.005]. There were significantly fewer drop-outs [risperidone n=55, drop-out rate=38.5%; haloperidol n=79, drop-out rate=54.1%, χ2(1)=7.1, p=0.009] and a longer non-discontinuation time [risperidone: average of 50.8 d to drop-out; haloperidol: average of 44.0 d to drop-out; log rank test, χ2(1)=6.4, p=0.011] in the risperidone group. Risperidone and haloperidol appear to be equally effective in treating negative and other symptoms of first-episode schizophrenia. Risperidone has better extrapyramidal tolerability and treatment retention rate than the equivalent dose of haloperidol in these patients.
People in a putatively late prodromal state not only have an enhanced
risk for psychosis but already suffer from mental and functional
disturbances
Aims
To evaluate the acute effects of a combined supportive and antipsychotic
treatment on prodromal symptoms
Method
Putatively prodromal individuals were randomly assigned to a
needs-focused intervention without (n=59) or with
amisulpride (n=65). Outcome measures at 12-weeks effects
were prodromal symptoms, global functioning and extrapyramidal
side-effects
Results
Amisulpride plus the needs-focused intervention produced superior effects
on attenuated and full-blown psychotic symptoms, basic, depressive and
negative symptoms, and global functioning. Main side-effects were
prolactin associated
Conclusions
Coadministration of amisulpride yielded a marked symptomatic benefit.
Effects require confirmation by a placebo-controlled study
The Early Detection and Intervention Programme of the German Research Network on Schizophrenia (GRNS) investigates the initial prodromal phase of psychosis in a multidimensional approach. Two intervention strategies are being studied by two large-scale multicentre projects.
Aims
To present the concept of the intervention studies, and to provide an interim report of the recruitment procedure.
Method
Comprehensive cognitive-behavioural therapy has been developed for patients in the ‘early initial prodromal state’. For patients in the ‘late initial prodromal state’ the atypical neuroleptic amisulpride is explored. Both interventions are evaluated in randomised controlled trials using clinical management as the control condition.
Results
Between January 2001 and March 2003, 1212 individuals seeking help for mental health problems were screened for putative prodromal symptoms at four university centres. More than 388 individuals fulfilled criteria for both interventions and 188 (48. 5%) gave informed consent to participate in the trials.
Conclusions
The screening procedure appears to be feasible and trial participation seems to be acceptable to a relevant proportion of people at increased risk of developing psychosis.