Understanding deviations from typical brain development is a promising approach to comprehend pathophysiology in childhood and adolescence. We investigated if cerebellar volumes different than expected for age and sex could predict psychopathology, executive functions and academic achievement.

Children and adolescents aged 6–17 years from the Brazilian High-Risk Cohort Study for Mental Conditions had their cerebellar volume estimated using Multiple Automatically Generated Templates from T1-weighted images at baseline (n = 677) and at 3-year follow-up (n = 447). Outcomes were assessed using the Child Behavior Checklist and standardized measures of executive functions and school achievement. Models of typically developing cerebellum were based on a subsample not exposed to risk factors and without mental-health conditions (n = 216). Deviations from this model were constructed for the remaining individuals (n = 461) and standardized variation from age and sex trajectory model was used to predict outcomes in cross-sectional, longitudinal and mediation analyses.

Cerebellar volumes higher than expected for age and sex were associated with lower externalizing specific factor and higher executive functions. In a longitudinal analysis, deviations from typical development at baseline predicted inhibitory control at follow-up, and cerebellar deviation changes from baseline to follow-up predicted changes in reading and writing abilities. The association between deviations in cerebellar volume and academic achievement was mediated by inhibitory control.

Deviations in the cerebellar typical development are associated with outcomes in youth that have long-lasting consequences. This study highlights both the potential of typical developing models and the important role of the cerebellum in mental health, cognition and education.