Response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is associated with clinical and transdiagnostic genetic factors. The predictive combination of these variables might help clinicians better predict which patients will respond to lithium treatment.

To use a combination of transdiagnostic genetic and clinical factors to predict lithium response in patients with bipolar disorder.

This study utilised genetic and clinical data (n = 1034) collected as part of the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen) project. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were computed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, and then combined with clinical variables using a cross-validated machine-learning regression approach. Unimodal, multimodal and genetically stratified models were trained and validated using ridge, elastic net and random forest regression on 692 patients with bipolar disorder from ten study sites using leave-site-out cross-validation. All models were then tested on an independent test set of 342 patients. The best performing models were then tested in a classification framework.

The best performing linear model explained 5.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response and was composed of clinical variables, PRS variables and interaction terms between them. The best performing non-linear model used only clinical variables and explained 8.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response. A priori genomic stratification improved non-linear model performance to 13.7% (P = 0.0001) and improved the binary classification of lithium response. This model stratified patients based on their meta-polygenic loadings for major depressive disorder and schizophrenia and was then trained using clinical data.

Using PRS to first stratify patients genetically and then train machine-learning models with clinical predictors led to large improvements in lithium response prediction. When used with other PRS and biological markers in the future this approach may help inform which patients are most likely to respond to lithium treatment.

Extrapolation methods are commonly used to model the cost-effectiveness of health technologies beyond observed data. Reassessing cost-effectiveness estimates using updated clinical trial data has the potential to reduce uncertainty and optimize decision-making. We present a case study based on percutaneous repair (PR) with the Mitraclip system, a technology to treat severe secondary mitral regurgitation (MR). For the study purpose, we considered the COAPT trial that evaluated the effectiveness of adding PR to medical treatment versus medical treatment alone.

We developed a time-varying Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of PR. Clinical inputs were based on reconstructed individual patient data from the COAPT trial results reported at 2 years, and at 3 years.

We developed parametric modeling for overall survival (OS) and heart failure hospitalizations (HFH) to obtain clinically plausible extrapolations beyond observed data. We adopted the French perspective and used a 30-year time horizon. We expressed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY).

Based on 2 year-data, preferred parametric models for OS and HFH were exponential and log-logistic respectively, yielding an ICER of EUR21,918/QALY and >0.5 probability of PR being cost-effective (EUR50,000/QALY threshold).

Updated analyses at 3 years showed a change of OS trajectory for PR that justified the use of piecewise modelling, yielding an updated ICER that went up to EUR77,904/QALY (base-case), and to a minimum of EUR58,175/QALY (scenario analysis). Using data at 3 years, PR had <0.5 probability of being cost-effective.

In this case study, the availability of updated survival analyses of the main trial is likely to have some impact on decision-making and/or pricing discussion as part of health-technology assessment (HTA). We aim to provide further updated analyses as 4 years results of the COAPT study become available.

More broadly, original technology appraisals are frequently undertaken when mid/long-term follow-up trial data may be lacking. Our example suggests the need for continuous HTA review as new clinical data are released.

Studying phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age at onset (AAO) and polarity at onset (PAO) in bipolar disorder can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools.

To examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with bipolar disorder disease characteristics.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (n = 12 977) and PAO (n = 6773) were conducted in patients with bipolar disorder from 34 cohorts and a replication sample (n = 2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts.

Earlier AAO was associated with a higher probability of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, lower educational attainment, not living together and fewer episodes. Depressive onset correlated with suicidality and manic onset correlated with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in single-nucleotide variant-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased PGS for autism spectrum disorder (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), major depression (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), schizophrenia (β = −0.39 years, s.e. = 0.08), and educational attainment (β = −0.31 years, s.e. = 0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO.

AAO and PAO are associated with indicators of bipolar disorder severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses.

Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWASs) have identified several genes associated with Schizophrenia (SCZ) and exponentially increased knowledge on the genetic basis of the disease. In addition, products of GWAS genes interact with neuronal factors coded by genes lacking association, such that this interaction may confer risk for specific phenotypes of this brain disorder. In this regard, fragile X mental retardation syndrome-related 1 (FXR1) gene has been GWAS associated with SCZ. FXR1 protein is regulated by glycogen synthase kinase-3β (GSK3β), which has been implicated in pathophysiology of SCZ and response to antipsychotics (APs). rs496250 and rs12630592, two eQTLs (Expression Quantitative Trait Loci) of FXR1 and GSK3β, respectively, interact on emotion stability and amygdala/prefrontal cortex activity during emotion processing. These two phenotypes are associated with Negative Symptoms (NSs) of SCZ suggesting that the interaction between these SNPs may also affect NS severity and responsiveness to medication.

To test this hypothesis, in two independent samples of patients with SCZ, we investigated rs496250 by rs12630592 interaction on NS severity and response to APs. We also tested a putative link between APs administration and FXR1 expression, as already reported for GSK3β expression.

We found that rs496250 and rs12630592 interact on NS severity. We also found evidence suggesting interaction of these polymorphisms also on response to APs. This interaction was not present when looking at positive and general psychopathology scores. Furthermore, chronic olanzapine administration led to a reduction of FXR1 expression in mouse frontal cortex.

Our findings suggest that, like GSK3β, FXR1 is affected by APs while shedding new light on the role of the FXR1/GSK3β pathway for NSs of SCZ.