This article assesses, using a framework derived from lesson-drawing, policy transfer and crisis research, the lessons offered by the media from abroad and from the past in the UK COVID-19 pandemic. The lesson-drawing literature focuses on a series of steps and questions associated with the ‘fungibility’ of lessons, and the crisis literature, with its constituent elements of threat, uncertainty and between ‘routine’ and ‘non-routine’ or ‘less routine’ crises. The article utilises the LexisNexis Database1 in order to provide a content analysis of newspaper coverage of lessons offered, giving analysis in ‘real time’ of the source of potential lessons (e.g. past pandemics or other nations), and the type of lessons (e.g. copying or instruments). Its analysis highlights the complexity of lesson-drawing in ‘real time’ in a period of considerable uncertainty, where knowledge is contested, and is subject to change over time.

B vitamins involved in one-carbon metabolism have been implicated in the development of inflammation- and angiogenesis-related chronic diseases, such as colorectal cancer (CRC). Yet, the role of one-carbon metabolism in inflammation and angiogenesis among CRC patients remains unclear. The objective of this study was to investigate associations of components of one-carbon metabolism with inflammation and angiogenesis biomarkers among newly diagnosed CRC patients (n 238) in the prospective ColoCare Study, Heidelberg. We cross-sectionally analysed associations between twelve B vitamins and one-carbon metabolites and ten inflammation and angiogenesis biomarkers from pre-surgery serum samples using multivariable linear regression models. We further explored associations among novel biomarkers in these pathways with Spearman partial correlation analyses. We hypothesised that pyridoxal-5’-phosphate (PLP) is inversely associated with inflammatory biomarkers. We observed that PLP was inversely associated with C-reactive protein (CRP) (r –0·33, Plinear < 0·0001), serum amyloid A (SAA) (r –0·23, Plinear = 0·003), IL-6 (r –0·39, Plinear < 0·0001), IL-8 (r –0·20, Plinear = 0·02) and TNFα (r –0·12, Plinear = 0·045). Similar findings were observed for 5-methyl-tetrahydrofolate and CRP (r –0·14), SAA (r –0·14) and TNFα (r –0·15) among CRC patients. Folate catabolite acetyl-para-aminobenzoylglutamic acid (pABG) was positively correlated with IL-6 (r 0·27, Plinear < 0·0001), and pABG was positively correlated with IL-8 (r 0·21, Plinear < 0·0001), indicating higher folate utilisation during inflammation. Our data support the hypothesis of inverse associations between PLP and inflammatory biomarkers among CRC patients. A better understanding of the role and inter-relation of PLP and other one-carbon metabolites with inflammatory processes among colorectal carcinogenesis and prognosis could identify targets for future dietary guidance for CRC patients.

Ecological inference (EI) is the process of learning about individual behavior from aggregate data. We relax assumptions by allowing for “linear contextual effects,” which previous works have regarded as plausible but avoided due to nonidentification, a problem we sidestep by deriving bounds instead of point estimates. In this way, we offer a conceptual framework to improve on the Duncan–Davis bound, derived more than 65 years ago. To study the effectiveness of our approach, we collect and analyze 8,430 $2\times 2$ EI datasets with known ground truth from several sources—thus bringing considerably more data to bear on the problem than the existing dozen or so datasets available in the literature for evaluating EI estimators. For the 88% of real data sets in our collection that fit a proposed rule, our approach reduces the width of the Duncan–Davis bound, on average, by about 44%, while still capturing the true district-level parameter about 99% of the time. The remaining 12% revert to the Duncan–Davis bound.

The lead article for this issue of EJAM is Prof. Bernard J. Matkowsky's personalized survey-style article on the theory and application of singular perturbation methods to noisy dynamical systems in the limit of small noise. This article is based on his John von Neumann Prize lecture presented at the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) Annual Meeting in July 2017. The John von Neumann Lecture is awarded by SIAM for outstanding and distinguished contributions to the field of applied mathematical sciences and for the effective communication of these ideas to the community. From 1990–1996, Matkowsky was an inaugural editorial board member for EJAM.

Health technology assessment (HTA) is not simply a mechanistic technical exercise as it takes place within a specific institutional context. Yet, we know little about how this context influences the operation of HTA and its ability to influence policy and practice. We seek to demonstrate the importance of considering institutional context, using a case study of Hungary, a country that has pioneered HTA in Central and Eastern Europe. We conducted 26 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with public- and private-sector stakeholders. We found that while the HTA Department, the Hungarian HTA organisation, fulfilled its formal role envisaged in the legislation, its potential for supporting evidence-based decision-making was not fully realised given the low levels of transparency and stakeholder engagement. Further, the Department’s practical influence throughout the reimbursement process was perceived as being constrained by the payer and policy-makers, as well as its own limited organisational capacity. There was also scepticism as to whether the current operational form of the HTA process delivered ‘good value for money’. Nevertheless, it still had a positive impact on the development of a broader institutional HTA infrastructure in Hungary. Our findings highlight the importance of considering institutional context in analysing the HTA function within health systems.

Ebola is a high consequence infectious disease—a disease with the potential to cause outbreaks, epidemics, or pandemics with deadly possibilities, highly infectious, pathogenic, and virulent. Ebola’s first reported cases in the United States in September 2014 led to the development of preparedness capabilities for the mitigation of possible rapid outbreaks, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) providing guidelines to assist public health officials in infectious disease response planning. These guidelines include broad goals for state and local agencies and detailed information concerning the types of resources needed at health care facilities. However, the spatial configuration of populations and existing health care facilities is neglected. An incomplete understanding of the demand landscape may result in an inefficient and inequitable allocation of resources to populations. Hence, this paper examines challenges in implementing CDC’s guidance for Ebola preparedness and mitigation in the context of geospatial allocation of health resources and discusses possible strategies for addressing such challenges. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:563–566)

Transparency is recognised to be a key underpinning of the work of health technology assessment (HTA) agencies, yet it has only recently become a subject of systematic inquiry. We contribute to this research field by considering the Polish Agency for Health Technology Assessment (AHTAPol). We situate the AHTAPol in a broader context by comparing it with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England. To this end, we analyse all 332 assessment reports, called verification analyses, that the AHTAPol issued from 2012 to 2015, and a stratified sample of 22 Evidence Review Group reports published by NICE in the same period. Overall, by increasingly presenting its key conclusions in assessment reports, the AHTAPol has reached the transparency standards set out by NICE in transparency of HTA outputs. The AHTAPol is more transparent than NICE in certain aspects of the HTA process, such as providing rationales for redacting assessment reports and providing summaries of expert opinions. Nevertheless, it is less transparent in other areas of the HTA process, such as including information on expert conflicts of interest. Our findings have important implications for understanding HTA in Poland and more broadly. We use them to formulate recommendations for policymakers.

The special lead article in this issue of EJAM, by Profs. John Ockendon and Brian Sleeman, is dedicated to Prof. Joseph B. Keller (referred to as Joe by his friends), Emeritus professor of Stanford University, who was one of the greatest applied mathematicians of our time. Joe died in September 2016. A workshop in honour of Joe was held at the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge, UK, in March 2017, focussing on some of the astonishingly wide range of topics in the mathematical sciences and continuum mechanics that Joe made substantial contributions to over his long career. This article discusses some of these pioneering contributions, describes some modern developments as discussed by the workshop speakers, and provides a more personal tribute to Joe, his history, and to his large influence on the international applied mathematics community. May the spirit of Joe, and his flavour of applied mathematics, continue to be reflected in EJAM.

Lake Ejagham is a small, shallow lake in Cameroon, West Africa, which supports five endemic species of cichlid fishes in two distinct lineages. Genetic evidence suggests a relatively young age for the species flocks, but supporting geologic evidence has thus far been unavailable. Here we present diatom, geochemical, mineralogical, and radiocarbon data from two sediment cores that provide new insights into the age and origin of Lake Ejagham and its endemic fishes. Radiocarbon ages at the base of the longer core indicate that the lake formed approximately 9 ka ago, and the diatom record of the shorter core suggests that hydroclimate variability during the last 3 millennia was similar to that of other lakes in Cameroon and Ghana. These findings establish a maximum age of ca. 9 cal ka BP for the lake and its endemic species and suggest that repeated cichlid speciation in two distinct lineages occurred rapidly within the lake. Local geology and West African paleoclimate records argue against a volcanic, chemical, or climatic origin for Lake Ejagham. Although not conclusive, the morphometry of the lake and possible signs of impact-induced effects on quartz grains are instead more suggestive of a bolide impact.

Reconciliation of unpaid care and employment is an increasingly important societal, economic and policy issue, both in the UK and internationally. Previous research shows the effectiveness of formal social care services in enabling carers to remain in employment. Using quantitative and qualitative data collected from carers and the person they care for in 2013 and 2015, during a period of cuts to adult social care in England, we explore barriers experienced to receipt of social care services. The main barriers to receipt of services identified in our study were availability, characteristics of services such as quality, and attitudes of carer and care-recipient to receiving services. These barriers have particular implications for carers' ability to reconcile care and employment.

The collective response of electrons in an ultrathin foil target irradiated by an ultraintense (${\sim}6\times 10^{20}~\text{W}~\text{cm}^{-2}$) laser pulse is investigated experimentally and via 3D particle-in-cell simulations. It is shown that if the target is sufficiently thin that the laser induces significant radiation pressure, but not thin enough to become relativistically transparent to the laser light, the resulting relativistic electron beam is elliptical, with the major axis of the ellipse directed along the laser polarization axis. When the target thickness is decreased such that it becomes relativistically transparent early in the interaction with the laser pulse, diffraction of the transmitted laser light occurs through a so called ‘relativistic plasma aperture’, inducing structure in the spatial-intensity profile of the beam of energetic electrons. It is shown that the electron beam profile can be modified by variation of the target thickness and degree of ellipticity in the laser polarization.