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We describe the scientific goals and survey design of the First Large Absorption Survey in H i (FLASH), a wide field survey for 21-cm line absorption in neutral atomic hydrogen (H i) at intermediate cosmological redshifts. FLASH will be carried out with the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) radio telescope and is planned to cover the sky south of
$\delta \approx +40\,\deg$
at frequencies between 711.5 and 999.5 MHz. At redshifts between
$z = 0.4$
and
$1.0$
(look-back times of 4 – 8 Gyr), the H i content of the Universe has been poorly explored due to the difficulty of carrying out radio surveys for faint 21-cm line emission and, at ultra-violet wavelengths, space-borne searches for Damped Lyman-
$\alpha$
absorption in quasar spectra. The ASKAP wide field of view and large spectral bandwidth, in combination with a radio-quiet site, will enable a search for absorption lines in the radio spectra of bright continuum sources over 80% of the sky. This survey is expected to detect at least several hundred intervening 21-cm absorbers and will produce an H i-absorption-selected catalogue of galaxies rich in cool, star-forming gas, some of which may be concealed from optical surveys. Likewise, at least several hundred associated 21-cm absorbers are expected to be detected within the host galaxies of radio sources at
$0.4 < z < 1.0$
, providing valuable kinematical information for models of gas accretion and jet-driven feedback in radio-loud active galactic nuclei. FLASH will also detect OH 18-cm absorbers in diffuse molecular gas, megamaser OH emission, radio recombination lines, and stacked H i emission.
We present the most sensitive and detailed view of the neutral hydrogen (
${\rm H\small I}$
) emission associated with the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), through the combination of data from the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) and Parkes (Murriyang), as part of the Galactic Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (GASKAP) pilot survey. These GASKAP-HI pilot observations, for the first time, reveal
${\rm H\small I}$
in the SMC on similar physical scales as other important tracers of the interstellar medium, such as molecular gas and dust. The resultant image cube possesses an rms noise level of 1.1 K (
$1.6\,\mathrm{mJy\ beam}^{-1}$
)
$\mathrm{per}\ 0.98\,\mathrm{km\ s}^{-1}$
spectral channel with an angular resolution of
$30^{\prime\prime}$
(
${\sim}10\,\mathrm{pc}$
). We discuss the calibration scheme and the custom imaging pipeline that utilises a joint deconvolution approach, efficiently distributed across a computing cluster, to accurately recover the emission extending across the entire
${\sim}25\,\mathrm{deg}^2$
field-of-view. We provide an overview of the data products and characterise several aspects including the noise properties as a function of angular resolution and the represented spatial scales by deriving the global transfer function over the full spectral range. A preliminary spatial power spectrum analysis on individual spectral channels reveals that the power law nature of the density distribution extends down to scales of 10 pc. We highlight the scientific potential of these data by comparing the properties of an outflowing high-velocity cloud with previous ASKAP+Parkes
${\rm H\small I}$
test observations.
As refugees and asylum seekers are at high risk of developing mental disorders, we assessed the effectiveness of Self-Help Plus (SH + ), a psychological intervention developed by the World Health Organization, in reducing the risk of developing any mental disorders at 12-month follow-up in refugees and asylum seekers resettled in Western Europe.
Methods
Refugees and asylum seekers with psychological distress (General Health Questionnaire-12 ⩾ 3) but without a mental disorder according to the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (M.I.N.I.) were randomised to either SH + or enhanced treatment as usual (ETAU). The frequency of mental disorders at 12 months was measured with the M.I.N.I., while secondary outcomes included self-identified problems, psychological symptoms and other outcomes.
Results
Of 459 participants randomly assigned to SH + or ETAU, 246 accepted to be interviewed at 12 months. No difference in the frequency of any mental disorders was found (relative risk [RR] = 0.841; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.389–1.819; p-value = 0.659). In the per protocol (PP) population, that is in participants attending at least three group-based sessions, SH + almost halved the frequency of mental disorders at 12 months compared to ETAU, however so few participants and events contributed to this analysis that it yielded a non-significant result (RR = 0.528; 95% CI 0.180–1.544; p-value = 0.230). SH + was associated with improvements at 12 months in psychological distress (p-value = 0.004), depressive symptoms (p-value = 0.011) and wellbeing (p-value = 0.001).
Conclusions
The present study failed to show any long-term preventative effect of SH + in refugees and asylum seekers resettled in Western European countries. Analysis of the PP population and of secondary outcomes provided signals of a potential effect of SH + in the long-term, which would suggest the value of exploring the effects of booster sessions and strategies to increase SH + adherence.
The Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey (RACS) is the first large sky survey using the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP), covering the sky south of
$+41^\circ$
declination. With ASKAP’s large, instantaneous field of view,
${\sim}31\,\mathrm{deg}^2$
, RACS observed the entire sky at a central frequency of 887.5 MHz using 903 individual pointings with 15 minute observations. This has resulted in the deepest radio survey of the full Southern sky to date at these frequencies. In this paper, we present the first Stokes I catalogue derived from the RACS survey. This catalogue was assembled from 799 tiles that could be convolved to a common resolution of
$25^{\prime\prime}$
, covering a large contiguous region in the declination range
$\delta=-80^{\circ}$
to
$+30^\circ$
. The catalogue provides an important tool for both the preparation of future ASKAP surveys and for scientific research. It consists of
$\sim$
2.1 million sources and excludes the
$|b|<5^{\circ}$
region around the Galactic plane. This provides a first extragalactic catalogue with ASKAP covering the majority of the sky (
$\delta<+30^{\circ}$
). We describe the methods to obtain this catalogue from the initial RACS observations and discuss the verification of the data, to highlight its quality. Using simulations, we find this catalogue detects 95% of point sources at an integrated flux density of
$\sim$
5 mJy. Assuming a typical sky source distribution model, this suggests an overall 95% point source completeness at an integrated flux density
$\sim$
3 mJy. The catalogue will be available through the CSIRO ASKAP Science Data Archive (CASDA).
People living with dementia (PLWD) in residential aged care homes (RACHs) are frequently prescribed psychotropic medications due to the high prevalence of neuropsychiatric symptoms, also known as behaviors and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD). However, the gold standard to support BPSD is using psychosocial/non-pharmacological therapies.
Objective:
This study aims to describe and evaluate services and neuropsychiatric outcomes associated with the provision of psychosocial person-centered care interventions delivered by national multidisciplinary dementia-specific behavior support programs.
Methods:
A 2-year retrospective pre-post study with a single-arm analysis was conducted on BPSD referrals received from Australian RACHs to the two Dementia Support Australia (DSA) programs, the Dementia Behavior Management Advisory Service (DBMAS) and the Severe Behavior Response Teams (SBRT). Neuropsychiatric outcomes were measured using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) total scores and total distress scores. The questionnaire version “NPI-Q” was administered for DBMAS referrals whereas the nursing home version “NPI-NH” was administered for SBRT referrals. Linear mixed effects models were used for analysis, with time, baseline score, age, sex, and case length as predictors. Clinical significance was measured using Cohen’s effect size (d; ≥0.3), the mean change score (MCS; 3 points for the NPI-Q and 4 points for the NPI-NH) and the mean percent change (MPC; ≥30%) in NPI parameters.
Results:
A total of 5,914 referrals (55.9% female, age 82.3 ± 8.6 y) from 1,996 RACHs were eligible for analysis. The most common types of dementia were Alzheimer’s disease (37.4%) and vascular dementia (11.7%). The average case length in DSA programs was 57.2 ± 26.3 days. The NPI scores were significantly reduced as a result of DSA programs, independent of covariates. There were significant reductions in total NPI scores as a result of the DBMAS (61.4%) and SBRT (74.3%) programs. For NPI distress scores, there were 66.5% and 69.1% reductions from baseline for the DBMAS and SBRT programs, respectively. All metrics (d, MCS, MPC) were above the threshold set for determining a clinically significant effect.
Conclusions:
Multimodal psychosocial interventions delivered by DSA programs are clinically effective as demonstrated by positive referral outcomes, such as improved BPSD and related caregiver distress.
We present the data and initial results from the first pilot survey of the Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU), observed at 944 MHz with the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) telescope. The survey covers
$270 \,\mathrm{deg}^2$
of an area covered by the Dark Energy Survey, reaching a depth of 25–30
$\mu\mathrm{Jy\ beam}^{-1}$
rms at a spatial resolution of
$\sim$
11–18 arcsec, resulting in a catalogue of
$\sim$
220 000 sources, of which
$\sim$
180 000 are single-component sources. Here we present the catalogue of single-component sources, together with (where available) optical and infrared cross-identifications, classifications, and redshifts. This survey explores a new region of parameter space compared to previous surveys. Specifically, the EMU Pilot Survey has a high density of sources, and also a high sensitivity to low surface brightness emission. These properties result in the detection of types of sources that were rarely seen in or absent from previous surveys. We present some of these new results here.
The GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky Murchison Widefield Array (GLEAM) is a radio continuum survey at 76–227 MHz of the entire southern sky (Declination
$<\!{+}30^{\circ}$
) with an angular resolution of
${\approx}2$
arcmin. In this paper, we combine GLEAM data with optical spectroscopy from the 6dF Galaxy Survey to construct a sample of 1 590 local (median
$z \approx 0.064$
) radio sources with
$S_{200\,\mathrm{MHz}} > 55$
mJy across an area of
${\approx}16\,700\,\mathrm{deg}^{2}$
. From the optical spectra, we identify the dominant physical process responsible for the radio emission from each galaxy: 73% are fuelled by an active galactic nucleus (AGN) and 27% by star formation. We present the local radio luminosity function for AGN and star-forming (SF) galaxies at 200 MHz and characterise the typical radio spectra of these two populations between 76 MHz and
${\sim}1$
GHz. For the AGN, the median spectral index between 200 MHz and
${\sim}1$
GHz,
$\alpha_{\mathrm{high}}$
, is
$-0.600 \pm 0.010$
(where
$S \propto \nu^{\alpha}$
) and the median spectral index within the GLEAM band,
$\alpha_{\mathrm{low}}$
, is
$-0.704 \pm 0.011$
. For the SF galaxies, the median value of
$\alpha_{\mathrm{high}}$
is
$-0.650 \pm 0.010$
and the median value of
$\alpha_{\mathrm{low}}$
is
$-0.596 \pm 0.015$
. Among the AGN population, flat-spectrum sources are more common at lower radio luminosity, suggesting the existence of a significant population of weak radio AGN that remain core-dominated even at low frequencies. However, around 4% of local radio AGN have ultra-steep radio spectra at low frequencies (
$\alpha_{\mathrm{low}} < -1.2$
). These ultra-steep-spectrum sources span a wide range in radio luminosity, and further work is needed to clarify their nature.
Southern Ocean sea ice can exhibit widespread flooding and subsequent snow-ice formation, due to relatively thick snow covers compared to the total ice thickness. Considerable subkilometer scale variability in snow and ice thickness causes poorly constrained uncertainties in determining the amount of flooding that occurs. Using datasets of snow depth and ice thickness acquired in the Weddell Sea during austral winter 2013 (AWECS campaign) from three floes, we demonstrate large spatial variability of a factor 10 and 5 for snow and combined snow and ice thickness, respectively. The temporal evolution after the floe visit was recorded by automatic weather station and ice mass balance buoys. Using a physics-based, multi-layer snow/sea ice model in a one-dimensional and distributed mode to simulate the thermodynamic processes, we show that the distributed simulations, modeling flooding across the entire heterogeneous floe, produced vastly different amounts of flooding than one-dimensional single point simulations. Three times the flooding is produced in the one-dimensional simulation for the buoy location than distributed (floe-averaged) simulations. The latter is in close agreement with buoy observations. The results suggest that using point observations or one-dimensional simulations to extrapolate processes on the floe-scale can overestimate the amount of flooding and snow-ice formation.
Recent studies implicate maternal gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in differential methylation of infant DNA. Folate and vitamin B12 play a role in DNA methylation, and these vitamins may also influence GDM risk. The aims of this study were to determine folate and vitamin B12 status in obese pregnant women and investigate associations between folate and vitamin B12 status, maternal dysglycaemia and neonatal DNA methylation at cytosine-phosphate-guanine sites previously observed to be associated with dysglycaemia. Obese pregnant women who participated in the UK Pregnancies Better Eating and Activity Trial were included. Serum folate and vitamin B12 were measured at the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) visit. Cord blood DNA methylation was assessed using the Infinium MethylationEPIC BeadChip. Regression models with adjustment for confounders were used to examine associations. Of the 951 women included, 356 (37.4%) were vitamin B12 deficient, and 44 (4.6%) were folate deficient. Two-hundred and seventy-one women (28%) developed GDM. Folate and vitamin B12 concentrations were not associated with neonatal DNA methylation. Higher folate was positively associated with 1-h plasma glucose after OGTT (β = 0.031, 95% CI 0.001–0.061, p = 0.045). There was no relationship between vitamin B12 and glucose concentrations post OGTT or between folate or vitamin B12 and GDM. In summary, we found no evidence to link folate and vitamin B12 status with the differential methylation of neonatal DNA previously observed in association with dysglycaemia. We add to the evidence that folate status may be related to maternal glucose homoeostasis although replication in other maternal cohorts is required for validation.
We present the South Galactic Pole (SGP) data release from the GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky Murchison Widefield Array (GLEAM) survey. These data combine both years of GLEAM observations at 72–231 MHz conducted with the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) and cover an area of 5 113$\mathrm{deg}^{2}$ centred on the SGP at $20^{\mathrm{h}} 40^{\mathrm{m}} < \mathrm{RA} < 05^{\mathrm{h}} 04^{\mathrm{m}}$ and $-48^{\circ} < \mathrm{Dec} < -2^{\circ} $. At 216 MHz, the typical rms noise is ${\approx}5$ mJy beam–1 and the angular resolution ${\approx}2$ arcmin. The source catalogue contains a total of 108 851 components above $5\sigma$, of which 77% have measured spectral indices between 72 and 231 MHz. Improvements to the data reduction in this release include the use of the GLEAM Extragalactic catalogue as a sky model to calibrate the data, a more efficient and automated algorithm to deconvolve the snapshot images, and a more accurate primary beam model to correct the flux scale. This data release enables more sensitive large-scale studies of extragalactic source populations as well as spectral variability studies on a one-year timescale.
In this paper, we describe the system design and capabilities of the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) radio telescope at the conclusion of its construction project and commencement of science operations. ASKAP is one of the first radio telescopes to deploy phased array feed (PAF) technology on a large scale, giving it an instantaneous field of view that covers $31\,\textrm{deg}^{2}$ at $800\,\textrm{MHz}$. As a two-dimensional array of 36$\times$12 m antennas, with baselines ranging from 22 m to 6 km, ASKAP also has excellent snapshot imaging capability and 10 arcsec resolution. This, combined with 288 MHz of instantaneous bandwidth and a unique third axis of rotation on each antenna, gives ASKAP the capability to create high dynamic range images of large sky areas very quickly. It is an excellent telescope for surveys between 700 and $1800\,\textrm{MHz}$ and is expected to facilitate great advances in our understanding of galaxy formation, cosmology, and radio transients while opening new parameter space for discovery of the unknown.
We have found a class of circular radio objects in the Evolutionary Map of the Universe Pilot Survey, using the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder telescope. The objects appear in radio images as circular edge-brightened discs, about one arcmin diameter, that are unlike other objects previously reported in the literature. We explore several possible mechanisms that might cause these objects, but none seems to be a compelling explanation.
The Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey (RACS) is the first large-area survey to be conducted with the full 36-antenna Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) telescope. RACS will provide a shallow model of the ASKAP sky that will aid the calibration of future deep ASKAP surveys. RACS will cover the whole sky visible from the ASKAP site in Western Australia and will cover the full ASKAP band of 700–1800 MHz. The RACS images are generally deeper than the existing NRAO VLA Sky Survey and Sydney University Molonglo Sky Survey radio surveys and have better spatial resolution. All RACS survey products will be public, including radio images (with
$\sim$
15 arcsec resolution) and catalogues of about three million source components with spectral index and polarisation information. In this paper, we present a description of the RACS survey and the first data release of 903 images covering the sky south of declination
$+41^\circ$
made over a 288-MHz band centred at 887.5 MHz.
The low-frequency linearly polarised radio source population is largely unexplored. However, a renaissance in low-frequency polarimetry has been enabled by pathfinder and precursor instruments for the Square Kilometre Array. In this second paper from the POlarised GaLactic and Extragalactic All-Sky MWA Survey-the POlarised GLEAM Survey, or POGS-we present the results from our all-sky MWA Phase I Faraday Rotation Measure survey. Our survey covers nearly the entire Southern sky in the Declination range $-82^\circ$ to $+30^\circ$ at a resolution between around three and seven arcminutes (depending on Declination) using data in the frequency range 169−231 MHz. We have performed two targeted searches: the first covering 25 489 square degrees of sky, searching for extragalactic polarised sources; the second covering the entire sky South of Declination $+30^\circ$, searching for known pulsars. We detect a total of 517 sources with 200 MHz linearly polarised flux densities between 9.9 mJy and 1.7 Jy, of which 33 are known radio pulsars. All sources in our catalogues have Faraday rotation measures in the range $-328.07$ to $+279.62$ rad m−2. The Faraday rotation measures are broadly consistent with results from higher-frequency surveys, but with typically more than an order of magnitude improvement in the precision, highlighting the power of low-frequency polarisation surveys to accurately study Galactic and extragalactic magnetic fields. We discuss the properties of our extragalactic and known-pulsar source population, how the sky distribution relates to Galactic features, and identify a handful of new pulsar candidates among our nominally extragalactic source population.
Tobacco smoking is a leading cause of preventable death and disease worldwide. Adults with mental ill-health smoke tobacco at substantially higher rates than other adults, with public health approaches effective in the population overall having less impact on those with mental ill-health. However, less is known about the tobacco smoking behaviours, attitudes and knowledge of young people with mental ill-health, despite this being the peak period of onset for both mental illness and cigarette smoking.
Methods
Young people attending a youth mental health centre (providing both primary and specialist care) in Melbourne, Australia were approached by youth peer researchers and asked to complete a survey about smoking behaviours, attitudes and knowledge. We examined smoking and associated attitudes in the sample overall, and as a function of the services accessed.
Results
In total, 114 young people completed the survey, with 56.3% reporting lifetime cigarette smoking, 42.0% smoking in the last 12 months and 28.6% in the past week. Of current regular smokers, 75.0% acknowledged they should quit in the future; however, only 23.5% planned to do so in the next month, with 44.4% confident that they could quit. Participants lacked knowledge about interactions between tobacco smoking, mental and physical health.
Conclusions
Youth presenting for mental ill-health had high rates of cigarette smoking relative to population rates. Presentation at youth mental health services may represent a critical window for early intervention to reduce the lifetime impacts of cigarette smoking in mental ill-health. Interventions to support smoking cessation in this group are urgently needed.
To develop a toolkit to assess the quality of institutionalised care, in both hospital and community settings, for individuals with long-term mental illness.
Methods:
The toolkit was developed by the UK research teams. Items were included to assess the six domains (Living Environment; Therapeutic Environment; Treatments and Interventions; Self-management and Autonomy; Social Policy, Citizenship and Advocacy; Clinical Governance) and three cross-cutting themes (Social Inclusion; Human Rights; Recovery-based Model) which emerged from the international literature review, Delphi exercises and cross-country care standards. Following translation and piloting in each country, the toolkit was refined and tested for reliability in 20 units in each country (a total of 200 units).
Results:
Test-retest reliability was assessed using intra-class correlations and Cohen's Kappa coefficients. Factors with low reliability or extreme response biases were dropped. Remaining items were subjected to an exploratory factor analysis to test the allocation of items to domains and cross-cutting themes and improve their internal consistency. Correlations between domains were explored to determine whether or not domains could be combined.
In the next phase of the study,the toolkit domain ratings will be analysed for associations with standardised assessments of service users' quality of life, autonomy and markers of recovery to investigate whether the toolkit can provide a proxy measurement of the institution's promotion of human rights and recovery.
There is considerable evidence that white matter abnormalities play a key role in the pathogenesis of a number of major psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia, bipolar affective disorder, and obsessive-compulsive disorder. Few studies, however, have compared white matter abnormalities early in the course of the illness.
Methods:
A total of 102 children and adolescents participated in the study, including 43 with early-onset schizophrenia, 13 with early-onset bipolar affective disorder, 17 with obsessive-compulsive disorder, and 29 healthy controls. Diffusion tensor imaging scans were obtained on all children and the images were assessed for the presence of non-spatially overlapping regions of white matter differences, a novel algorithm known as the pothole approach.
Results:
Patients with early-onset schizophrenia and early-onset bipolar affective disorder had a significantly greater number of white matter potholes compared to controls, but the total number of potholes did not differ between the two groups. The volumes of the potholes were significantly larger in patients with early-onset bipolar affective disorder compared to the early-onset schizophrenia group. Children and adolescents with obsessive-compulsive disorder showed no differences in the total number of white matter potholes compared to controls.
Conclusions:
White matter abnormalities in early-onset schizophrenia and bipolar affective disorder are more global in nature, whereas children and adolescents with obsessive-compulsive disorder do not show widespread differences in FA.
We present a detailed analysis of the radio galaxy PKS
$2250{-}351$
, a giant of 1.2 Mpc projected size, its host galaxy, and its environment. We use radio data from the Murchison Widefield Array, the upgraded Giant Metre-wavelength Radio Telescope, the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder, and the Australia Telescope Compact Array to model the jet power and age. Optical and IR data come from the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey and provide information on the host galaxy and environment. GAMA spectroscopy confirms that PKS
$2250{-}351$
lies at
$z=0.2115$
in the irregular, and likely unrelaxed, cluster Abell 3936. We find its host is a massive, ‘red and dead’ elliptical galaxy with negligible star formation but with a highly obscured active galactic nucleus dominating the mid-IR emission. Assuming it lies on the local M–
$\sigma$
relation, it has an Eddington accretion rate of
$\lambda_{\rm EDD}\sim 0.014$
. We find that the lobe-derived jet power (a time-averaged measure) is an order of magnitude greater than the hotspot-derived jet power (an instantaneous measure). We propose that over the lifetime of the observed radio emission (
${\sim} 300\,$
Myr), the accretion has switched from an inefficient advection-dominated mode to a thin disc efficient mode, consistent with the decrease in jet power. We also suggest that the asymmetric radio morphology is due to its environment, with the host of PKS
$2250{-}351$
lying to the west of the densest concentration of galaxies in Abell 3936.
Prevention of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is a national priority and may be facilitated by deployment of the Targeted Assessment for Prevention (TAP) Strategy, a quality improvement framework providing a focused approach to infection prevention. This article describes the process and outcomes of TAP Strategy implementation for CDI prevention in a healthcare system.
Methods:
Hospital A was identified based on CDI surveillance data indicating an excess burden of infections above the national goal; hospitals B and C participated as part of systemwide deployment. TAP facility assessments were administered to staff to identify infection control gaps and inform CDI prevention interventions. Retrospective analysis was performed using negative-binomial, interrupted time series (ITS) regression to assess overall effect of targeted CDI prevention efforts. Analysis included hospital-onset, laboratory-identified C. difficile event data for 18 months before and after implementation of the TAP facility assessments.
Results:
The systemwide monthly CDI rate significantly decreased at the intervention (β2, −44%; P = .017), and the postintervention CDI rate trend showed a sustained decrease (β1 + β3; −12% per month; P = .008). At an individual hospital level, the CDI rate trend significantly decreased in the postintervention period at hospital A only (β1 + β3, −26% per month; P = .003).
Conclusions:
This project demonstrates TAP Strategy implementation in a healthcare system, yielding significant decrease in the laboratory-identified C. difficile rate trend in the postintervention period at the system level and in hospital A. This project highlights the potential benefit of directing prevention efforts to facilities with the highest burden of excess infections to more efficiently reduce CDI rates.
Effective management of uncertainty can lead to better, more informed decisions. However, many decision makers and their advisers do not always face up to uncertainty, in part because there is little constructive guidance or tools available to help. This paper outlines six Uncertainty Principles to manage uncertainty.
Face up to uncertainty
Deconstruct the problem
Don’t be fooled (un/intentional biases)
Models can be helpful, but also dangerous
Think about adaptability and resilience
Bring people with you
These were arrived at following extensive discussions and literature reviews over a 5-year period. While this is an important topic for actuaries, the intended audience is any decision maker or advisor in any sector (public or private).