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The combination of advances in knowledge, technology, changes in consumer preference and low cost of manufacturing is accelerating the next technology revolution in crop, livestock and fish production systems. This will have major implications for how, where and by whom food will be produced in the future. This next technology revolution could benefit the producer through substantial improvements in resource use and profitability, but also the environment through reduced externalities. The consumer will ultimately benefit through more nutritious, safe and affordable food diversity, which in turn will also contribute to the acceleration of the next technology. It will create new opportunities in achieving progress towards many of the Sustainable Development Goals, but it will require early recognition of trends and impact, public research and policy guidance to avoid negative trade-offs. Unfortunately, the quantitative predictability of future impacts will remain low and uncertain, while new chocks with unexpected consequences will continue to interrupt current and future outcomes. However, there is a continuing need for improving the predictability of shocks to future food systems especially for ex-ante assessment for policy and planning.
Late-life depression has substantial impacts on individuals, families and society. Knowledge gaps remain in estimating the economic impacts associated with late-life depression by symptom severity, which has implications for resource prioritisation and research design (such as in modelling). This study examined the incremental health and social care expenditure of depressive symptoms by severity.
Methods
We analysed data collected from 2707 older adults aged 60 years and over in Hong Kong. The Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and the Client Service Receipt Inventory were used, respectively, to measure depressive symptoms and service utilisation as a basis for calculating care expenditure. Two-part models were used to estimate the incremental expenditure associated with symptom severity over 1 year.
Results
The average PHQ-9 score was 6.3 (standard deviation, s.d. = 4.0). The percentages of respondents with mild, moderate and moderately severe symptoms and non-depressed were 51.8%, 13.5%, 3.7% and 31.0%, respectively. Overall, the moderately severe group generated the largest average incremental expenditure (US$5886; 95% CI 1126–10 647 or a 272% increase), followed by the mild group (US$3849; 95% CI 2520–5177 or a 176% increase) and the moderate group (US$1843; 95% CI 854–2831, or 85% increase). Non-psychiatric healthcare was the main cost component in a mild symptom group, after controlling for other chronic conditions and covariates. The average incremental association between PHQ-9 score and overall care expenditure peaked at PHQ-9 score of 4 (US$691; 95% CI 444–939), then gradually fell to negative between scores of 12 (US$ - 35; 95% CI - 530 to 460) and 19 (US$ -171; 95% CI - 417 to 76) and soared to positive and rebounded at the score of 23 (US$601; 95% CI -1652 to 2854).
Conclusions
The association between depressive symptoms and care expenditure is stronger among older adults with mild and moderately severe symptoms. Older adults with the same symptom severity have different care utilisation and expenditure patterns. Non-psychiatric healthcare is the major cost element. These findings inform ways to optimise policy efforts to improve the financial sustainability of health and long-term care systems, including the involvement of primary care physicians and other geriatric healthcare providers in preventing and treating depression among older adults and related budgeting and accounting issues across services.
Diabetes and depression on their own are debilitating and costly diseases. Their co-existance presents further treatment and funding challenges. This session will provide an overview of the economic dimensions of this comorbid relationship and present the findings of a systematic review of evidence related to this. The review found a growing literature demonstrating: increased resource use and health care costs, unemployment and lost productivity; poorer quality of life; and a higher risk of mortality arising from the co-existance of these illnesses. While there are some good quality studies evaluating the efficacy/effectiveness of various treatments, few include an economic evaluation and the generalisability of those is unclear. Therefore, while the evidence suggests little doubt of the broad-ranging economic impacts on patients, health care systems and wider society, there is still a gap regarding the cost-effectiveness of alternative approaches to the treatment and long-term management of this comorbidity within the context of limited health care budgets.
To estimate costs associated with medication non-adherence over a 3-year follow-up period in the treatment of schizophrenia in routine clinical practice in Europe.
Methods
SOHO is a 3-year, prospective, observational study of 10972 outpatient participants across 10 European countries. Data were collected at baseline and at 6-month intervals up to 36 months. Medication adherence was assessed at each visit by participating psychiatrists during 4 weeks prior to the visit as: (1) not prescribed medication; (2) always adherent; (3) partially adherent; and (4) never adherent. In this post-hoc analysis, multivariate analyses were performed to compare the costs of resource use (inpatient stay, day care, psychiatrist visits and medication) in patients who were adherent, partially adherent, and non-adherent, using a log-link function. Adherence status was included as a time-varying variable, and other baseline patient characteristics were adjusted for. UK unit costs were applied to resource use.
Results
Out of 5364 patients who were prescribed medication prior to baseline, 5.9% were non-adherent while 77.1% and 17.0% were adherent and partially adherent, respectively, at baseline. The average 6-month cost incurred by non-adherent patients was £2505 while that for adherent and partially adherent patients was £2029 and £2130 respectively. This difference was mainly due to inpatient costs. The inpatient costs incurred by non-adherent patients (£987) were almost double those for adherent patients (£475).
Conclusion
Non-adherence in schizophrenia was likely to incur more inpatient services, which may indicate poorer clinical prognosis. A study limitation is that adherence was assessed by investigators using a single-item measure.
Epidemiologic surveys conducted across Europe indicate that the lifetime prevalence of social anxiety disorder in the general population is close to 7%. The disorder in adulthood rarely presents in its ‘pure’ form and 70–80% of patients have at least one other psychiatric disorder, most commonly depression. Social anxiety disorder is a risk factor for the development of depression and alcohol/substance use or dependence, especially in cases with an early onset (< 15 years). Individuals with social anxiety disorder have significant functional impairment, notably in the areas of initiation and maintenance of social/romantic relationships and educational and work achievement. The economic consequences of social anxiety disorder are considerable, with a high level of diminished work productivity, unemployment and an increased utilisation of medical services amongst sufferers. Effective treatment of social anxiety disorder would improve its course and its health and economic consequences.
Stigma and social exclusion related to mental health are of substantial public health importance for Europe. As part of ROAMER (ROAdmap for MEntal health Research in Europe), we used systematic mapping techniques to describe the current state of research on stigma and social exclusion across Europe. Findings demonstrate growing interest in this field between 2007 and 2012. Most studies were descriptive (60%), focused on adults of working age (60%) and were performed in Northwest Europe—primarily in the UK (32%), Finland (8%), Sweden (8%) and Germany (7%). In terms of mental health characteristics, the largest proportion of studies investigated general mental health (20%), common mental disorders (16%), schizophrenia (16%) or depression (14%). There is a paucity of research looking at mechanisms to reduce stigma and promote social inclusion, or at factors that might promote resilience or protect against stigma/social exclusion across the life course. Evidence is also limited in relation to evaluations of interventions. Increasing incentives for cross-country research collaborations, especially with new EU Member States and collaboration across European professional organizations and disciplines, could improve understanding of the range of underpinning social and cultural factors which promote inclusion or contribute toward lower levels of stigma, especially during times of hardship.
There are large treatment gaps in relation to schizophrenia across all European countries, either because the illness is not recognised or because the response from treatment and care services is inadequate - not evidence-based. This could be because of resource or other constraints. The consequence can be very damaging indeed for individuals with schizophrenia, their families and for the wider society. In this talk I will set out the economic consequences of not identifying or responding appropriately to schizophrenia. Evidence will be drawn from a number of studies, but will be channelled to show new findings in relation to both England and Czech Republic. These figures add to the argument for earlier and better treatment, to benefit everybody including public and private budgets.
Disclosure of interest
The author has not supplied his declaration of competing interest.
Economic hardship can be a factor in the incidence and exacerbation of mental health problems, and economic constraints have always constrained availability of resources. But examining the economic case – whether treatment or longer-term preventive strategies are cost-effective – can actually provide strong support for investing more in them. This presentation will provide illustrations of how economic evidence has helped decision-makers (in government and in funding bodies) to recognise the enormous contributions often generated by prevention, treatment and care.
Disclosure of interest
The author has not supplied his declaration of competing interest.
In this study, we report the characterization of a 304L stainless steel cylindrical projectile produced by additive manufacturing. The projectile was compressively deformed using a Taylor Anvil Gas Gun, leading to a huge strain gradient along the axis of the deformed cylinder. Spatially resolved neutron diffraction measurements on the HIgh Pressure Preferred Orientation time-of-flight diffractometer (HIPPO) and Spectrometer for Materials Research at Temperature and Stress diffractometer (SMARTS) beamlines at the Los Alamos Neutron Science CEnter (LANSCE) with Rietveld and single-peak analysis were used to quantitatively evaluate the volume fractions of the α, γ, and ε phases as well as residual strain and texture. The texture of the γ phase is consistent with uniaxial compression, while the α texture can be explained by the Kurdjumov–Sachs relationship from the γ texture after deformation. This indicates that the material first deformed in the γ phase and subsequently transformed at larger strains. The ε phase was only found in volumes close to the undeformed material with a texture connected to the γ texture by the Shoji–Nishiyama orientation relationship. This allows us to conclude that the ε phase occurs as an intermediate phase at lower strain, and is superseded by the α phase when strain increases further. We found a proportionality between the root-mean-squared microstrain of the γ phase, dominated by the dislocation density, with the α volume fraction, consistent with strain-induced martensite α formation. Knowledge of the sample volume with the ε phase from the neutron diffraction analysis allowed us to identify the ε phase by electron back scatter diffraction analysis, complementing the neutron diffraction analysis with characterization on the grain level.
Research supports robust associations between childhood bullying victimization and mental health problems in childhood/adolescence and emerging evidence shows that the impact can persist into adulthood. We examined the impact of bullying victimization on mental health service use from childhood to midlife.
Method
We performed secondary analysis using the National Child Development Study, the 1958 British Birth Cohort Study. We conducted analyses on 9242 participants with complete data on childhood bullying victimization and service use at midlife. We used multivariable logistic regression models to examine associations between childhood bullying victimization and mental health service use at the ages of 16, 23, 33, 42 and 50 years. We estimated incidence and persistence of mental health service use over time to the age of 50 years.
Results
Compared with participants who were not bullied in childhood, those who were frequently bullied were more likely to use mental health services in childhood and adolescence [odds ratio (OR) 2.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.88–3.40] and also in midlife (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.10–1.55). Disparity in service use associated with childhood bullying victimization was accounted for by both incident service use through to age 33 years by a subgroup of participants, and by persistent use up to midlife.
Conclusions
Childhood bullying victimization adds to the pressure on an already stretched health care system. Policy and practice efforts providing support for victims of bullying could help contain public sector costs. Given constrained budgets and the long-term mental health impact on victims of bullying, early prevention strategies could be effective at limiting both individual distress and later costs.
The treatment gap for serious mental disorders across low-income countries is estimated to be 89%. The model for Mental Health and Development (MHD) offers community-based care for people with mental disorders in 11 low- and middle-income countries.
Method
In Kenya, using a pre-post design, 117 consecutively enrolled participants with schizophrenia-spectrum and bipolar disorders were followed-up at 10 and 20 months. Comparison outcomes were drawn from the literature. Costs were analysed from societal and health system perspectives.
Results
From the societal perspective, MHD cost Int$ 594 per person in the first year and Int$ 876 over 2 years. The cost per healthy day gained was Int$ 7.96 in the first year and Int$ 1.03 over 2 years – less than the agricultural minimum wage. The cost per disability-adjusted life year averted over 2 years was Int$ 13.1 and Int$ 727 from the societal and health system perspectives, respectively, on par with antiretrovirals for HIV.
Conclusions
MHD achieved increasing returns over time. The model appears cost-effective and equitable, especially over 2 years. Its affordability relies on multi-sectoral participation nationally and internationally.