We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference.

We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research – with input from more than 200 experts.

Schizotypy represents an index of psychosis-proneness in the general population, often associated with childhood trauma exposure. Both schizotypy and childhood trauma are linked to structural brain alterations, and it is possible that trauma exposure moderates the extent of brain morphological differences associated with schizotypy.

We addressed this question using data from a total of 1182 healthy adults (age range: 18–65 years old, 647 females/535 males), pooled from nine sites worldwide, contributing to the Enhancing NeuroImaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis (ENIGMA) Schizotypy working group. All participants completed both the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire Brief version (SPQ-B), and the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ), and underwent a 3D T1-weighted brain MRI scan from which regional indices of subcortical gray matter volume and cortical thickness were determined.

A series of multiple linear regressions revealed that differences in cortical thickness in four regions-of-interest were significantly associated with interactions between schizotypy and trauma; subsequent moderation analyses indicated that increasing levels of schizotypy were associated with thicker left caudal anterior cingulate gyrus, right middle temporal gyrus and insula, and thinner left caudal middle frontal gyrus, in people exposed to higher (but not low or average) levels of childhood trauma. This was found in the context of morphological changes directly associated with increasing levels of schizotypy or increasing levels of childhood trauma exposure.

These results suggest that alterations in brain regions critical for higher cognitive and integrative processes that are associated with schizotypy may be enhanced in individuals exposed to high levels of trauma.

Personality functioning, self-disorders and their relationship to psychotic symptoms on a continuum from mild attenuated experiences to manifest psychotic symptoms in psychotic disorders are highly relevant for psychopathology, course of illness and treatment planning in psychotic disorders, but empirical data is sparse.

This study aims at exploring personality functioning and self-disorders in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis (UHR) and with first-episode psychosis (FEP), compared to a clinical control group of subjects with borderline personality disorder (BPD) and healthy controls (HC).

Personality functioning was measured in 107 participants (24 UHR, 29 FEP, and 27 BPD and 27 HC) using the Structured Interview for Personality Organization (STIPO) and the Level of Personality Functioning Scale (LPFS), and self-disorders were assessed using the Examination of Anomalous Self-Experience (EASE). A hierarchical cluster analysis was performed based on the seven STIPO dimensions.

Significant impairment in personality functioning was found in UHR (M = 4.29, SD = .908), FEP (M = 4.83, SD = 1.002), and BPD individuals (M=4.70, SD=.542) compared with HC (M = 1.63, SD = .565). FEP patients showed significantly worse overall personality functioning compared to UHR patients (p = .037). Patients with manifest psychosis (FEP) also exhibited significantly higher levels of self-disorders compared to BPD patients (p = .019). Self-disturbances in patients with milder forms of psychotic symptoms (UHR) were intermediate between the other diagnostic groups (FEP and BPD). Regardless of the main diagnoses, the three clusters of patients were found to differ in levels of personality functioning and self-disorder.

Impairment of personality functioning varies in different stages of psychotic disorders. The level of self-disorders may allow differentiation between manifest psychosis and borderline personality disorder. An in-depth assessment of personality functioning and self-disorders could be helpful in differentiating diagnoses, treatment planning, and establishing foci for psychotherapeutic treatment modalities.

M. Gruber: None Declared, J. Alexopoulos: None Declared, K. Feichtinger: None Declared, K. Parth: None Declared, A. Wininger: None Declared, N. Mossaheb: None Declared, F. Friedrich: None Declared, Z. Litvan: None Declared, B. Hinterbuchinger: None Declared, S. Doering: None Declared, V. Blüml Grant / Research support from: Grant / Research support from: Heigl-Foundation, Köhler-Foundation, International Psychoanalytical Association (IPA)

Experience-dependent cortical plasticity observed during post-training sleep has been hypothesized to be part of the global process of memory consolidation. Combining the temporal resolution of microstructure detectors and the spatial resolution of low-resolution brain electromagnetic tomography (LORETA) makes it possible to investigate when and where the experience-dependent reactivation occurs under normal (undisturbed) sleeping conditions.

After an adaptation night, in the 2nd and 3rd night 48 young healthy volunteers were randomly assigned either to a control condition or to an experimental condition (declarative memory task: paired-associate word list or procedural memory task: mirror tracing). Sleep stages and sleep microstructures (slow waves, spindles and theta bursts) were detected automatically by means of the Somnolyzer 24x7. Changes in LORETA sources (experimental minus control night) were correlated with changes in memory performance (morning minus evening recall).

Overnight improvements in the mirror tracing task were correlated with increased slow-wave sources in the right posterior parietal cortex (r = .70,p < 0.01) during NREM sleep and with desynchronized (r = −.76,p < 0.01) and synchronized (r = .62,p < 0.01) rolandic mu rhythm sources during periods with theta bursts in REM sleep. Overnight improvements in the declarative memory task were significantly correlated with increased spindle sources (r = .52, p < .01) in frontal, temporal and cingulate brain regions.

The present study supports the hypotheses of (1) a use-dependent reset of synaptic plasticity during slow-wave sleep (restorative function), (2) an experience-dependent reactivation during spindle episodes (stabilizing function) and (3) an off-line neuronal reprocessing during REM sleep (improvement without further training for novel tasks).

Positive symptoms are a useful predictor of aggression in schizophrenia. Although a similar pattern of abnormal brain structures related to both positive symptoms and aggression has been reported, this observation has not yet been confirmed in a single sample.

To study the association between positive symptoms and aggression in schizophrenia on a neurobiological level, a prospective meta-analytic approach was employed to analyze harmonized structural neuroimaging data from 10 research centers worldwide. We analyzed brain MRI scans from 902 individuals with a primary diagnosis of schizophrenia and 952 healthy controls.

The result identified a widespread cortical thickness reduction in schizophrenia compared to their controls. Two separate meta-regression analyses revealed that a common pattern of reduced cortical gray matter thickness within the left lateral temporal lobe and right midcingulate cortex was significantly associated with both positive symptoms and aggression.

These findings suggested that positive symptoms such as formal thought disorder and auditory misperception, combined with cognitive impairments reflecting difficulties in deploying an adaptive control toward perceived threats, could escalate the likelihood of aggression in schizophrenia.

Sleep disturbances are prominent correlates of acute mood episodes and inadequate recovery in bipolar disorder (BD), yet the mechanistic relationship between sleep physiology and mood remains poorly understood. Using a series of pre-sleep mood inductions and overnight sleep recording, this study examined the relationship between overnight mood regulation and a marker of sleep intensity (non-rapid eye movement sleep slow wave activity; NREM SWA) during the interepisode phase of BD.

Adults with interepisode BD type 1 (BD; n = 20) and healthy adult controls (CTL; n = 23) slept in the laboratory for a screening night, a neutral mood induction night (baseline), a happy mood induction night, and a sad mood induction night. NREM SWA (0.75–4.75 Hz) was derived from overnight sleep EEG recordings. Overnight mood regulation was evaluated using an affect grid pleasantness rating post-mood induction (pre-sleep) and the next morning.

Overnight mood regulation did not differ between groups following the sad or happy inductions. SWA did not significantly change for either group on the sad induction night compared with baseline. In BD only, SWA on the sad night was related to impaired overnight negative mood regulation. On the happy induction night, SWA increased relative to baseline in both groups, though SWA was not related to overnight mood regulation for either group.

These findings indicate that SWA disruption may play a role in sustaining negative mood state from the previous night in interepisode BD. However, positive mood state could enhance SWA in bipolar patients and healthy adults.

Our understanding of the complex relationship between schizophrenia symptomatology and etiological factors can be improved by studying brain-based correlates of schizophrenia. Research showed that impairments in value processing and executive functioning, which have been associated with prefrontal brain areas [particularly the medial orbitofrontal cortex (MOFC)], are linked to negative symptoms. Here we tested the hypothesis that MOFC thickness is associated with negative symptom severity.

This study included 1985 individuals with schizophrenia from 17 research groups around the world contributing to the ENIGMA Schizophrenia Working Group. Cortical thickness values were obtained from T1-weighted structural brain scans using FreeSurfer. A meta-analysis across sites was conducted over effect sizes from a model predicting cortical thickness by negative symptom score (harmonized Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms or Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale scores).

Meta-analytical results showed that left, but not right, MOFC thickness was significantly associated with negative symptom severity (βstd = −0.075; p = 0.019) after accounting for age, gender, and site. This effect remained significant (p = 0.036) in a model including overall illness severity. Covarying for duration of illness, age of onset, antipsychotic medication or handedness weakened the association of negative symptoms with left MOFC thickness. As part of a secondary analysis including 10 other prefrontal regions further associations in the left lateral orbitofrontal gyrus and pars opercularis emerged.

Using an unusually large cohort and a meta-analytical approach, our findings point towards a link between prefrontal thinning and negative symptom severity in schizophrenia. This finding provides further insight into the relationship between structural brain abnormalities and negative symptoms in schizophrenia.

Civilian suicide rates vary by occupation in ways related to occupational stress exposure. Comparable military research finds suicide rates elevated in combat arms occupations. However, no research has evaluated variation in this pattern by deployment history, the indicator of occupation stress widely considered responsible for the recent rise in the military suicide rate.

The joint associations of Army occupation and deployment history in predicting suicides were analysed in an administrative dataset for the 729 337 male enlisted Regular Army soldiers in the US Army between 2004 and 2009.

There were 496 suicides over the study period (22.4/100 000 person-years). Only two occupational categories, both in combat arms, had significantly elevated suicide rates: infantrymen (37.2/100 000 person-years) and combat engineers (38.2/100 000 person-years). However, the suicide rates in these two categories were significantly lower when currently deployed (30.6/100 000 person-years) than never deployed or previously deployed (41.2–39.1/100 000 person-years), whereas the suicide rate of other soldiers was significantly higher when currently deployed and previously deployed (20.2–22.4/100 000 person-years) than never deployed (14.5/100 000 person-years), resulting in the adjusted suicide rate of infantrymen and combat engineers being most elevated when never deployed [odds ratio (OR) 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1–4.1], less so when previously deployed (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1–2.1), and not at all when currently deployed (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.8–1.8). Adjustment for a differential ‘healthy warrior effect’ cannot explain this variation in the relative suicide rates of never-deployed infantrymen and combat engineers by deployment status.

Efforts are needed to elucidate the causal mechanisms underlying this interaction to guide preventive interventions for soldiers at high suicide risk.

To examine cross-national patterns and correlates of lifetime and 12-month comorbid DSM-IV anxiety disorders among people with lifetime and 12-month DSM-IV major depressive disorder (MDD).

Nationally or regionally representative epidemiological interviews were administered to 74 045 adults in 27 surveys across 24 countries in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. DSM-IV MDD, a wide range of comorbid DSM-IV anxiety disorders, and a number of correlates were assessed with the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI).

45.7% of respondents with lifetime MDD (32.0–46.5% inter-quartile range (IQR) across surveys) had one of more lifetime anxiety disorders. A slightly higher proportion of respondents with 12-month MDD had lifetime anxiety disorders (51.7%, 37.8–54.0% IQR) and only slightly lower proportions of respondents with 12-month MDD had 12-month anxiety disorders (41.6%, 29.9–47.2% IQR). Two-thirds (68%) of respondents with lifetime comorbid anxiety disorders and MDD reported an earlier age-of-onset (AOO) of their first anxiety disorder than their MDD, while 13.5% reported an earlier AOO of MDD and the remaining 18.5% reported the same AOO of both disorders. Women and previously married people had consistently elevated rates of lifetime and 12-month MDD as well as comorbid anxiety disorders. Consistently higher proportions of respondents with 12-month anxious than non-anxious MDD reported severe role impairment (64.4 v. 46.0%; χ21 = 187.0, p < 0.001) and suicide ideation (19.5 v. 8.9%; χ21 = 71.6, p < 0.001). Significantly more respondents with 12-month anxious than non-anxious MDD received treatment for their depression in the 12 months before interview, but this difference was more pronounced in high-income countries (68.8 v. 45.4%; χ21 = 108.8, p < 0.001) than low/middle-income countries (30.3 v. 20.6%; χ21 = 11.7, p < 0.001).

Patterns and correlates of comorbid DSM-IV anxiety disorders among people with DSM-IV MDD are similar across WMH countries. The narrow IQR of the proportion of respondents with temporally prior AOO of anxiety disorders than comorbid MDD (69.6–74.7%) is especially noteworthy. However, the fact that these proportions are not higher among respondents with 12-month than lifetime comorbidity means that temporal priority between lifetime anxiety disorders and MDD is not related to MDD persistence among people with anxious MDD. This, in turn, raises complex questions about the relative importance of temporally primary anxiety disorders as risk markers v. causal risk factors for subsequent MDD onset and persistence, including the possibility that anxiety disorders might primarily be risk markers for MDD onset and causal risk factors for MDD persistence.

The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) has found that the proportional elevation in the US Army enlisted soldier suicide rate during deployment (compared with the never-deployed or previously deployed) is significantly higher among women than men, raising the possibility of gender differences in the adverse psychological effects of deployment.

Person-month survival models based on a consolidated administrative database for active duty enlisted Regular Army soldiers in 2004–2009 (n = 975 057) were used to characterize the gender × deployment interaction predicting suicide. Four explanatory hypotheses were explored involving the proportion of females in each soldier's occupation, the proportion of same-gender soldiers in each soldier's unit, whether the soldier reported sexual assault victimization in the previous 12 months, and the soldier's pre-deployment history of treated mental/behavioral disorders.

The suicide rate of currently deployed women (14.0/100 000 person-years) was 3.1–3.5 times the rates of other (i.e. never-deployed/previously deployed) women. The suicide rate of currently deployed men (22.6/100 000 person-years) was 0.9–1.2 times the rates of other men. The adjusted (for time trends, sociodemographics, and Army career variables) female:male odds ratio comparing the suicide rates of currently deployed v. other women v. men was 2.8 (95% confidence interval 1.1–6.8), became 2.4 after excluding soldiers with Direct Combat Arms occupations, and remained elevated (in the range 1.9–2.8) after adjusting for the hypothesized explanatory variables.

These results are valuable in excluding otherwise plausible hypotheses for the elevated suicide rate of deployed women and point to the importance of expanding future research on the psychological challenges of deployment for women.

Although variation in the long-term course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is not strongly predicted by existing symptom subtype distinctions, recent research suggests that prediction can be improved by using machine learning methods. However, it is not known whether these distinctions can be refined by added information about co-morbid conditions. The current report presents results on this question.

Data came from 8261 respondents with lifetime DSM-IV MDD in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. Outcomes included four retrospectively reported measures of persistence/severity of course (years in episode; years in chronic episodes; hospitalization for MDD; disability due to MDD). Machine learning methods (regression tree analysis; lasso, ridge and elastic net penalized regression) followed by k-means cluster analysis were used to augment previously detected subtypes with information about prior co-morbidity to predict these outcomes.

Predicted values were strongly correlated across outcomes. Cluster analysis of predicted values found three clusters with consistently high, intermediate or low values. The high-risk cluster (32.4% of cases) accounted for 56.6–72.9% of high persistence, high chronicity, hospitalization and disability. This high-risk cluster had both higher sensitivity and likelihood ratio positive (LR+; relative proportions of cases in the high-risk cluster versus other clusters having the adverse outcomes) than in a parallel analysis that excluded measures of co-morbidity as predictors.

Although the results using the retrospective data reported here suggest that useful MDD subtyping distinctions can be made with machine learning and clustering across multiple indicators of illness persistence/severity, replication with prospective data is needed to confirm this preliminary conclusion.

The US Army suicide rate has increased sharply in recent years. Identifying significant predictors of Army suicides in Army and Department of Defense (DoD) administrative records might help focus prevention efforts and guide intervention content. Previous studies of administrative data, although documenting significant predictors, were based on limited samples and models. A career history perspective is used here to develop more textured models.

The analysis was carried out as part of the Historical Administrative Data Study (HADS) of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). De-identified data were combined across numerous Army and DoD administrative data systems for all Regular Army soldiers on active duty in 2004–2009. Multivariate associations of sociodemographics and Army career variables with suicide were examined in subgroups defined by time in service, rank and deployment history.

Several novel results were found that could have intervention implications. The most notable of these were significantly elevated suicide rates (69.6–80.0 suicides per 100 000 person-years compared with 18.5 suicides per 100 000 person-years in the total Army) among enlisted soldiers deployed either during their first year of service or with less than expected (based on time in service) junior enlisted rank; a substantially greater rise in suicide among women than men during deployment; and a protective effect of marriage against suicide only during deployment.

A career history approach produces several actionable insights missed in less textured analyses of administrative data predictors. Expansion of analyses to a richer set of predictors might help refine understanding of intervention implications.

Cross-national population data from the WHO World Mental Health surveys are used to compare role attainments and role impairments associated with binge-eating disorder (BED) and bulimia nervosa (BN).

Community surveys assessed 23 000 adults across 12 countries for BED, BN and ten other DSM-IV mental disorders using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Age-of-onset was assessed retrospectively. Ten physical disorders were assessed using standard conditions checklists. Analyses examined reciprocal time-lagged associations of eating disorders (EDs) with education, associations of early-onset (i.e., prior to completing education) EDs with subsequent adult role attainments and cross-sectional associations of current EDs with days of role impairment.

BED and BN predicted significantly increased education (females). Student status predicted increased risk of subsequent BED and BN (females). Early-onset BED predicted reduced odds of current (at time of interview) marriage (females) and reduced odds of current employment (males). Early-onset BN predicted increased odds of current work disability (females and males). Current BED and BN were both associated with significantly increased days of role impairment (females and males). Significant BED and BN effects on adult role attainments and impairments were explained by controls for comorbid disorders.

Effects of BED on role attainments and impairments are comparable with those of BN. The most plausible interpretation of the fact that these associations are explained by comorbid disorders is that causal effects of EDs are mediated through secondary disorders. Controlled treatment effectiveness studies are needed to trace out long-term effects of BED–BN on secondary disorders.