Using a characterizing equation for the beta distribution, Stein's method is applied to obtain bounds of the optimal order for the Wasserstein distance between the distribution of the scaled number of white balls drawn from a Pólya-Eggenberger urn and its limiting beta distribution. The bound is computed by making a direct comparison between characterizing operators of the target and the beta distribution, the former derived by extending Stein's density approach to discrete distributions. In addition, refinements are given to Döbler's (2012) result for the arcsine approximation for the fraction of time a simple random walk of even length spends positive, and so also to the distributions of its last return time to 0 and its first visit to its terminal point, by supplying explicit constants to the present Wasserstein bound and also demonstrating that its rate is of the optimal order.

In the so-called lightbulb process, on days r = 1,…,n, out of n lightbulbs, all initially off, exactly r bulbs, selected uniformly and independent of the past, have their status changed from off to on, or vice versa. With X the number of bulbs on at the terminal time n, an even integer, and μ = n/2, σ2 = var(X), we have supz ∈ R | P((X - μ)/σ ≤ z) - P(Z ≤ z) | ≤ nΔ̅0/2σ2 + 1.64n/σ3 + 2/σ, where Z is a standard normal random variable and Δ̅0 = 1/2√n + 1/2n + e−n/2/3 for n ≥ 6, yielding a bound of order O(n−1/2) as n → ∞. A similar, though slightly larger bound, holds for odd n. The results are shown using a version of Stein's method for bounded, monotone size bias couplings. The argument for even n depends on the construction of a variable Xs on the same space as X that has the X-size bias distribution, that is, which satisfies E[Xg(X)] = μE[g(Xs)] for all bounded continuous g, and for which there exists a B ≥ 0, in this case B = 2, such that X ≤ Xs ≤ X + B almost surely. The argument for odd n is similar to that for even n, but one first couples X closely to V, a symmetrized version of X, for which a size bias coupling of V to Vs can proceed as in the even case. In both the even and odd cases, the crucial calculation of the variance of a conditional expectation requires detailed information on the spectral decomposition of the lightbulb chain.

The tools of zero biasing are adapted to yield a general result suitable for analysing the behaviour of certain growth processes. The main theorem is applied to prove a central limit theorem, with explicit error terms in the L1 metric, for a natural statistic of the Jack measure on partitions.

We study a class of optimal allocation problems, including the well-known bomber problem, with the following common probabilistic structure. An aircraft equipped with an amount x of ammunition is intercepted by enemy airplanes arriving according to a homogeneous Poisson process over a fixed time duration t. Upon encountering an enemy, the aircraft has the choice of spending any amount 0 ≤ y ≤ x of its ammunition, resulting in the aircraft's survival with probability equal to some known increasing function of y. Two different goals have been considered in the literature concerning the optimal amount K(x, t) of ammunition spent: (i) maximizing the probability of surviving for time t, which is the so-called bomber problem; and (ii) maximizing the number of enemy airplanes shot down during time t, which we call the fighter problem. Several authors have attempted to settle the following conjectures about the monotonicity of K(x, t): (A) K(x, t) is decreasing in t; (B) K(x, t) is increasing in x; and (C) the amount x - K(x, t) held back is increasing in x. Conjectures (A) and (C) have been shown for the bomber problem with discrete ammunition, while (B) is still an open question. In this paper we consider both time and ammunition to be continuous, and, for the bomber problem, we prove (A) and (C), while, for the fighter problem, we prove (A) and (C) for one special case and (B) and (C) for another. These proofs involve showing that the optimal survival probability and optimal number shot down are totally positive of order 2 (TP2) in the bomber and fighter problems, respectively. The TP2 property is shown by constructing convergent sequences of approximating functions through an iterative operation which preserves TP2 and other properties.

Berry-Esseen-type bounds to the normal, based on zero- and size-bias couplings, are derived using Stein's method. The zero biasing bounds are illustrated in an application to combinatorial central limit theorems in which the random permutation has either the uniform distribution or one that is constant over permutations with the same cycle type, with no fixed points. The size biasing bounds are applied to the occurrences of fixed, relatively ordered subsequences (such as rising sequences) in a random permutation, and to the occurrences of patterns, extreme values, and subgraphs in finite graphs.

Let Xn,…,X1 be independent, identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables with distribution function F. A statistician, knowing F, observes the X values sequentially and is given two chances to choose Xs using stopping rules. The statistician's goal is to stop at a value of X as small as possible. Let equal the expectation of the smaller of the two values chosen by the statistician when proceeding optimally. We obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the sequence for a large class of Fs belonging to the domain of attraction (for the minimum) 𝒟(Gα), where Gα(x) = [1 - exp(-xα)]1(x ≥ 0) (with 1(·) the indicator function). The results are compared with those for the asymptotic behaviour of the classical one-choice value sequence , as well as with the ‘prophet value’ sequence

The objective of this study was to assess the relation between the intensity of single moods and of mood combinations on blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR). The subjects were 203 healthy registered nurses, all women, who were studied on two work and two off days. Ambulatory BP and HR were recorded every 20 min. On each occasion subjects rated their moods on a 5-point scale. Graded increases in BP and HR were shown with higher ratings of negative moods and decreases for a mood related to energy level. Little change was observed for a positive mood. These effects depended on concurrent changes in other moods. A positive mood countered the effects of a negative mood, whereas two negative moods resulted in unique patterns of BP and HR. The energy level mood moderated the cardiovascular effects of positive and negative moods. Ambulatory methods provide a way of probing into the nature and consequences of everyday emotional experiences.

A curious connection exists between the theory of optimal stopping for independent random variables, and branching processes. In particular, for the branching process Zn with offspring distribution Y, there exists a random variable X such that the probability P(Zn = 0) of extinction of the nth generation in the branching process equals the value obtained by optimally stopping the sequence X1,…, Xn, where these variables are i.i.d. distributed as X. Generalizations to the inhomogeneous and infinite horizon cases are also considered. This correspondence furnishes a simple ‘stopping rule’ method for computing various characteristics of branching processes, including rates of convergence of the nth generation's extinction probability to the eventual extinction probability, for the supercritical, critical and subcritical Galton-Watson process. Examples, bounds, further generalizations and a connection to classical prophet inequalities are presented. Throughout, the aim is to show how this unexpected connection can be used to translate methods from one area of applied probability to another, rather than to provide the most general results.

In phylogenetic analysis it is useful to study the distribution of the parsimony length of a tree under the null model, by which the leaves are independently assigned letters according to prescribed probabilities. Except in one special case, this distribution is difficult to describe exactly. Here we analyze this distribution by providing a recursive and readily computable description, establishing large deviation bounds for the parsimony length of a fixed tree on a single site and for the minimum length (maximum parsimony) tree over several sites. We also show that, under very general conditions, the former distribution converges asymptotically to the normal, thereby settling a recent conjecture. Furthermore, we show how the mean and variance of this distribution can be efficiently calculated. The proof of normality requires a number of new and recent results, as the parsimony length is not directly expressible as a sum of independent random variables, and so normality does not follow immediately from a standard central limit theorem.

Stein's method is used to obtain two theorems on multivariate normal approximation. Our main theorem, Theorem 1.2, provides a bound on the distance to normality for any non-negative random vector. Theorem 1.2 requires multivariate size bias coupling, which we discuss in studying the approximation of distributions of sums of dependent random vectors. In the univariate case, we briefly illustrate this approach for certain sums of nonlinear functions of multivariate normal variables. As a second illustration, we show that the multivariate distribution counting the number of vertices with given degrees in certain random graphs is asymptotically multivariate normal and obtain a bound on the rate of convergence. Both examples demonstrate that this approach may be suitable for situations involving non-local dependence. We also present Theorem 1.4 for sums of vectors having a local type of dependence. We apply this theorem to obtain a multivariate normal approximation for the distribution of the random p-vector, which counts the number of edges in a fixed graph both of whose vertices have the same given color when each vertex is colored by one of p colors independently. All normal approximation results presented here do not require an ordering of the summands related to the dependence structure. This is in contrast to hypotheses of classical central limit theorems and examples, which involve for example, martingale, Markov chain or various mixing assumptions.

Let H denote the complex upper half-plane and let η(z) denote Dedekind’s η-function

Let us denote by η(z) the classical η-function of Dedekind defined by

In [1] we derived a generalization of Kronecker’s first limit formula. Our generalization was a limit formula for the Eisenstein series for an arbitrary cusp of a Fuchsian group Γ of the first kind operating on the complex upper half-plane H. In that work, we introduced Dedekind sums associated to the principal congruence subgroups Γ(N) of the elliptic modular group. The work of our preceding paper suggests a natural question: Is there a generalization of Kronecker’s second limit formula to the setting of a general Fuchsian group of the first kind? The answer to this question is the subject of this paper.

The well-known first limit formula of Kronecker asserts that

where z = x + iy is contained in the complex upper halfplane H, C = the Euler-Mascheroni constant, and η(z) is the Dedekind eta-function defined by

Let be a quadratic field of discriminant d. We say that d is a prime discriminant if d is divisible by exactly one rational prime. It is classically known that the prime discriminants are given by

(p an odd prime).