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Several breast cancer risk prediction models have been validated in ethnically diverse populations, but none in Israeli high-risk women. To validate the accuracy of the IBIS and BOADICEA risk prediction models in Israeli high-risk women, the 10-year and lifetime risk for developing breast cancer were calculated using both BOADICEA and IBIS models for high-risk, cancer-free women, counselled at the Sheba Medical Center from 1 June 1996–31 May 2000. Women diagnosed with breast cancer by 31 May 2011 were identified from the Israeli National Cancer Registry. The observed to expected breast cancer ratios were calculated to evaluate the predictive value of both algorithms. Overall, 358 mostly (N = 205, 57·2%) Ashkenazi women, were eligible, age range at counselling was 20–75 years (mean 46·76 ± 9·8 years). Over 13·6 ± 1·45 years (range 11–16 years), 15 women (4·19%) were diagnosed with breast cancer, at a mean age of 57 ± 8·6 years. The 10-year risks assigned by BOADICEA and IBIS ranged from 0·2 to 12·6% and 0·89 to 21·7%, respectively. The observed:expected breast cancer ratio was 15/18·6 (0·8–95% CI 0·48–1·33) and 15/28·6 (0·52–95% CI 0·32–0·87), using both models, respectively. In Jewish Israeli high-risk women the BOADICEA model has a better predictive value and accuracy in determining 10-year breast cancer risk than the IBIS model.
Several studies have suggested that post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is related to adverse health outcomes. There are limited data on PTSD and cancer, which has a long latency period. We investigated the association between World War II (WWII)-related PTSD and subsequent breast cancer (BC) risk among Jewish WWII survivors and examined whether this association was modified by exposure to hunger during WWII.
We compared 65 BC patients diagnosed in 2005 through 2010 to 200 population-based controls who were members of various organizations for Jewish WWII survivors in Israel. All participants were born in Europe, lived at least six months under Nazi rule during WWII, and immigrated to Israel after the war. We estimated PTSD using the PTSD Inventory and applied logistic regression models to estimate the association between WWII-related PTSD and BC, adjusting for potential confounders.
We observed a linear association between WWII-related PTSD and BC risk. This association remained significant following adjustment for potential confounders, including obesity, alcohol consumption, smoking, age during WWII, hunger exposure during WWII, and total number of traumatic life events (OR = 2.89, 95% CI = 1.14–7.31). However, the level of hunger exposure during WWII modified this effect significantly.
These findings suggest an independent association between WWII-related PTSD and subsequent BC risk in Jewish WWII survivors that is modified by hunger, a novel finding. Future research is needed to further explore these findings.