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Only a limited number of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to a first course of antidepressant medication (ADM). We investigated the feasibility of creating a baseline model to determine which of these would be among patients beginning ADM treatment in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA).
Methods
A 2018–2020 national sample of n = 660 VHA patients receiving ADM treatment for MDD completed an extensive baseline self-report assessment near the beginning of treatment and a 3-month self-report follow-up assessment. Using baseline self-report data along with administrative and geospatial data, an ensemble machine learning method was used to develop a model for 3-month treatment response defined by the Quick Inventory of Depression Symptomatology Self-Report and a modified Sheehan Disability Scale. The model was developed in a 70% training sample and tested in the remaining 30% test sample.
Results
In total, 35.7% of patients responded to treatment. The prediction model had an area under the ROC curve (s.e.) of 0.66 (0.04) in the test sample. A strong gradient in probability (s.e.) of treatment response was found across three subsamples of the test sample using training sample thresholds for high [45.6% (5.5)], intermediate [34.5% (7.6)], and low [11.1% (4.9)] probabilities of response. Baseline symptom severity, comorbidity, treatment characteristics (expectations, history, and aspects of current treatment), and protective/resilience factors were the most important predictors.
Conclusions
Although these results are promising, parallel models to predict response to alternative treatments based on data collected before initiating treatment would be needed for such models to help guide treatment selection.
Posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) are common following traumatic stress exposure (TSE). Identification of individuals with PTSS risk in the early aftermath of TSE is important to enable targeted administration of preventive interventions. In this study, we used baseline survey data from two prospective cohort studies to identify the most influential predictors of substantial PTSS.
Methods
Self-identifying black and white American women and men (n = 1546) presenting to one of 16 emergency departments (EDs) within 24 h of motor vehicle collision (MVC) TSE were enrolled. Individuals with substantial PTSS (⩾33, Impact of Events Scale – Revised) 6 months after MVC were identified via follow-up questionnaire. Sociodemographic, pain, general health, event, and psychological/cognitive characteristics were collected in the ED and used in prediction modeling. Ensemble learning methods and Monte Carlo cross-validation were used for feature selection and to determine prediction accuracy. External validation was performed on a hold-out sample (30% of total sample).
Results
Twenty-five percent (n = 394) of individuals reported PTSS 6 months following MVC. Regularized linear regression was the top performing learning method. The top 30 factors together showed good reliability in predicting PTSS in the external sample (Area under the curve = 0.79 ± 0.002). Top predictors included acute pain severity, recovery expectations, socioeconomic status, self-reported race, and psychological symptoms.
Conclusions
These analyses add to a growing literature indicating that influential predictors of PTSS can be identified and risk for future PTSS estimated from characteristics easily available/assessable at the time of ED presentation following TSE.
Background: Despite a higher prevalence of traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI) amongst Canadian Indigenous peoples, there is a paucity of studies focused on Indigenous TSCI. We present the first Canada-wide study comparing TSCI amongst Canadian Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples. Methods: This study is a retrospective analysis of prospectively-collected TSCI data from the Rick Hansen Spinal Cord Injury Registry (RHSCIR) from 2004-2019. We divided participants into Indigenous and non-Indigenous cohorts and compared them with respect to demographics, injury mechanism, level, severity, and outcomes. Results: Compared with non-Indigenous patients, Indigenous patients were younger, more female, less likely to have higher education, and less likely to be employed. The mechanism of injury was more likely due to assault or transportation-related trauma in the Indigenous group. The length of stay for Indigenous patients was longer. Indigenous patients were more likely to be discharged to a rural setting, less likely to be discharged home, and more likely to be unemployed following injury. Conclusions: Our results suggest that more resources need to be dedicated for transitioning Indigenous patients sustaining a TSCI to community living and for supporting these patients in their home communities. A focus on resources and infrastructure for Indigenous patients by engagement with Indigenous communities is needed.
For a multi-vectored propeller aerostat with actuator faults, this study presents a fault-tolerant tracking control strategy, which includes fault modeling, observer, force estimation and tracking controller. Fault modeling considers the four types of faults of vectored propellers, namely, thrust offset, thrust efficiency loss, vectored angle offset and vectored angle stuck. Actuator faults can be determined from the fault observer, which identifies the thrust offset from the acceleration difference of the faulty aerostat with the ideal model. For tracking positions, a traditional PID controller is constructed with virtual control, compensated with the estimated fault force. The control allocation scheme is proposed to redistribute the available actuators in case faults occur. Simulation results of position tracking prove the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.
An analytical solution is developed for studying transient water wave-induced responses inside an unsaturated poroelastic seabed of finite thickness. The soil skeleton and the pore fluid are compressible and the constitutive relationship of the soil skeleton is described by Hooke's law. Assuming that the horizontal length scale of wave motion is much larger than the seabed thickness, the leading-order analytical solutions for the seabed responses, including pore fluid pressure and soil skeleton motion, are obtained. The present solutions are suitable for general transient wave loading and for the shear modulus of the soil skeleton being of the same order of magnitude as the effective bulk modulus of elasticity of the pore fluid. The present theory is first validated by checking the solutions with the experimental data for the pore pressure induced by periodic-wave loading. The present analytical solutions are then used to investigate the seabed responses under transient waves, including linear periodic wave, a solitary wave and a bore. The effects of the wave-induced effective stresses on the bed failure potential are further analysed. The results show that the shear failure potential and its duration are highly dependent on the soil properties, such as saturation degree, shear modulus and permeability. Sensitivity analyses are presented.
The depth-integrated wave–current models developed by Yang & Liu (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 883, 2020, A4) are extended to investigate currents with an arbitrary vertical profile in the water column. In the present models, horizontal velocities are decomposed into two components. The first part deduces the prescribed current velocity when waves are absent. The second part is approximated in a polynomial form. The resulting depth-integrated wave–current models are obtained by applying the weighted residual method. In the absence of currents, the present models are identical to those in Yang & Liu (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 883, 2020, A4) and are validated with several three-dimensional (3D) benchmark laboratory experiments. A theoretical analysis is conducted to study the frequency dispersion relation of linear waves on currents with an exponential vertical profile and the results are compared with numerical solutions of the Rayleigh equation. Using the new models, validations and investigations are then conducted for periodic waves and solitary waves on currents with an arbitrary profile in one-dimensional horizontal (1DH) space. Furthermore, the new models are applied to wave–current interactions in two-dimensional horizontal (2DH) space. Two scenarios are considered: (1) wave propagation over a vortex-ring-like current and (2) obliquely incident wave propagation over a 3D sheared current on a varying bathymetry. The vertical and horizontal shear of the current have significant effects on modifying various wave properties, which are well captured by the present models. However, the time-averaged velocity under wave–current interaction shows small differences with the prescribed current velocity, except in the region between the wave trough and crest.
Fewer than half of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to psychotherapy. Pre-emptively informing patients of their likelihood of responding could be useful as part of a patient-centered treatment decision-support plan.
Methods
This prospective observational study examined a national sample of 807 patients beginning psychotherapy for MDD at the Veterans Health Administration. Patients completed a self-report survey at baseline and 3-months follow-up (data collected 2018–2020). We developed a machine learning (ML) model to predict psychotherapy response at 3 months using baseline survey, administrative, and geospatial variables in a 70% training sample. Model performance was then evaluated in the 30% test sample.
Results
32.0% of patients responded to treatment after 3 months. The best ML model had an AUC (SE) of 0.652 (0.038) in the test sample. Among the one-third of patients ranked by the model as most likely to respond, 50.0% in the test sample responded to psychotherapy. In comparison, among the remaining two-thirds of patients, <25% responded to psychotherapy. The model selected 43 predictors, of which nearly all were self-report variables.
Conclusions
Patients with MDD could pre-emptively be informed of their likelihood of responding to psychotherapy using a prediction tool based on self-report data. This tool could meaningfully help patients and providers in shared decision-making, although parallel information about the likelihood of responding to alternative treatments would be needed to inform decision-making across multiple treatments.
Discordant monozygotic (MZ) twin methodologies are considered one of the foremost statistical approaches for estimating the influence of environmental factors on phenotypic variance. Limitations associated with the discordant MZ twin approach generates an inability to estimate particular relationships and adjust estimates for the confounding influence of gene-nonshared environment interactions. Recent advancements in molecular genetics, however, can provide the opportunity to address these limitations. The current study reviews an alternative technique, genetically adjusted propensity scores (GAPS) matching, that integrates observed genetic and environmental information to adjust for the confounding of these factors in nonkin individuals. Simulations and a real data example were used to compare the GAPS matching approach to the discordant MZ twin method. Although the results of the simulated comparisons demonstrated that the discordant MZ twin approach remains the more robust statistical technique to adjust for shared environmental and genetic factors, GAPS matching — under certain conditions — could represent a viable alternative when MZ twin samples are unavailable. Overall, the findings suggest that GAPS matching can potentially provide an alternative to the discordant MZ twin approach when limited variation exists between identical twin pairs. Moreover, the ability to adjust for gene-nonshared environment interactions represents a potential advancement associated with the GAPS approach. The limitations of the approach, as well as polygenic risk scores, are also discussed.
The distinct turbulence dynamics and transport modulated by a common seagrass species were investigated experimentally using a flexible surrogate canopy in a refractive-index-matching environment that enabled full optical access. The surrogate seagrass replicated the dynamic behaviour and morphological properties of its natural counterpart. The flows studied were subcritical with Froude numbers $Fr<0.26$ and concerned five Reynolds numbers $Re\in [3.4\times 10^{4}, 1.1\times 10^{5}]$ and Cauchy numbers $Ca\in [120, 1200]$. Complementary rigid canopy experiments were also included to aid comparative insight. The flow was quantified in wall-normal planes in a developed region using high-frame-rate particle image velocimetry. Results show that the deflection and coordinated waving motion of the blades redistributed the Reynolds stresses above and below the canopy top. Critically, in-canopy turbulence associated with the seagrass lacked periodic stem wake vortex shedding present in the rigid canopy, yet the flexible canopy induced vortex shedding from the blade tips. Inspection of spatial and temporal characteristics of coherent flow structures using spectral proper orthogonal decomposition reveals that Kelvin–Helmholtz-type vortices are the dominant flow structures associated with the waving motion of the seagrass and that modulated the local flow exchange in both rigid and flexible canopies. A barrier-like effect produced by the blade deflections blocked large-scale turbulence transport, thereby reducing vortex penetration into the canopy. In addition, we uncovered a transition from sweep-dominated to ejection-dominated behaviour in the surrogate seagrass. We hypothesise that the vortices created during the upward blade motion period play a major role in the sweep-to-ejection-dominated transition. Conditionally averaged quadrant analysis on the downward and upward blade motion supports this contention.
The epidemic of tuberculosis has posed a serious burden in Qinghai province, it is necessary to clarify the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal distribution of TB for future prevention and control measures. We used descriptive epidemiological methods and spatial statistical analysis including spatial correlation and spatial-temporal analysis in this study. Furthermore, we applied an exponential smoothing model for TB epidemiological trend forecasting. Of 43 859 TB cases, the sex ratio was 1.27:1 (M:F), and the average annual TB registered incidence was 70.00/100 000 of 2009–2019. More cases were reported in March and April, and the worst TB stricken regions were the prefectures of Golog and Yushu. High TB registered incidences were seen in males, farmers and herdsmen, Tibetans, or elderly people. 7132 cases were intractable, which were recurrent, drug resistant, or co-infected with other infections. Three likely cases clusters with significant high risk were found by spatial-temporal scan on data of 2009–2019. The exponential smoothing winters' additive model was selected as the best-fitting model to forecast monthly TB cases in the future. This research indicated that TB in Qinghai is still a serious threaten to the local residents' health. Multi-departmental collaboration and funds special for TB treatments and control are still needed, and the exponential smoothing model is promising which could be applied for forecasting of TB epidemic trend in this high-altitude province.
To evaluate the association of systolic blood pressure percentile, race, and body mass index with left ventricular hypertrophy on electrocardiogram and echocardiogram to define populations at risk.
Study design:
This is a retrospective cross-sectional study design utilising a data analytics tool (Tableau) combining electrocardiogram and echocardiogram databases from 2003 to 2020. Customized queries identified patients aged 2–18 years who had an outpatient electrocardiogram and echocardiogram on the same date with available systolic blood pressure and body measurements. Cases with CHD, cardiomyopathy, or arrhythmia diagnoses were excluded. Echocardiograms with left ventricle mass (indexed to height2.7) were included. The main outcome was left ventricular hypertrophy on echocardiogram defined as Left ventricle mass index greater than the 95th percentile for age.
Results:
In a cohort of 13,539 patients, 6.7% of studies had left ventricular hypertrophy on echocardiogram. Systolic blood pressure percentile >90% has a sensitivity of 35% and specificity of 82% for left ventricular hypertrophy on echocardiogram. Left ventricular hypertrophy on electrocardiogram was a poor predictor of left ventricular hypertrophy on echocardiogram (9% sensitivity and 92% specificity). African American race (OR 1.31, 95% CI = 1.10, 1.56, p = 0.002), systolic blood pressure percentile >95% (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.34, 1.93, p < 0.001), and higher body mass index (OR = 7.22, 95% CI = 6.23, 8.36, p < 0.001) were independently associated with left ventricular hypertrophy on echocardiogram.
Conclusions:
African American race, obesity, and hypertension on outpatient blood pressure measurements are independent risk factors for left ventricular hypertrophy in children. Electrocardiogram has little utility in the screening for left ventricular hypertrophy.
To explore the factors associated with the operative duration for paediatric tracheobronchial foreign body removal by rigid bronchoscopy, and to analyse the learning curve for mastery of the rigid bronchoscopy skill.
Methods
A retrospective study was performed of paediatric cases of tracheobronchial foreign body removal by rigid bronchoscopy in our department from January 2007 to July 2019. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to analyse the factors associated with the operative duration. In addition, the learning curves for two doctors were evaluated by curve-fitting regression analysis.
Results
A total of 410 paediatric cases of tracheobronchial foreign body removal by rigid bronchoscopy were evaluated. The operative duration was significantly influenced by the skill of the doctor. The learning curves for both doctor A and doctor B demonstrated two typical phases: an initially rapidly changing learning phase followed by a steady consolidation phase.
Conclusion
The operative duration for paediatric tracheobronchial foreign body removal by rigid bronchoscopy was associated with the skill of the doctor. In order to fully master the rigid bronchoscopy technique, doctors should perform a minimum number of procedures to pass the learning phase and reach the consolidation phase.
The early identification and prediction of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) play an important role in the disease prevention and control. However, suitable models are different in regions due to the differences in geography, social economy factors. We collected data associated with daily reported HFMD cases and weather factors of Zibo city in 2010~2019 and used the generalised additive model (GAM) to evaluate the effects of weather factors on HFMD cases. Then, GAM, support vectors regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR) models are used to compare predictive results. The annual average incidence was 129.72/100 000 from 2010 to 2019. Its distribution showed a unimodal trend, with incidence increasing from March, peaking from May to September. Our study revealed the nonlinear relationship between temperature, rainfall and relative humidity and HFMD cases and based on the predictive result, the performances of three models constructed ranked in descending order are: SVR > GAM> RFR, and SVR has the smallest prediction errors. These findings provide quantitative evidence for the prediction of HFMD for special high-risk regions and can help public health agencies implement prevention and control measures in advance.
Wisdom is a personality trait comprising seven components: self-reflection, pro-social behaviors, emotional regulation, acceptance of diverse perspectives, decisiveness, social advising, and spirituality. Wisdom, a potentially modifiable trait, is strongly associated with well-being. We have published a validated 28-item San Diego Wisdom Scale, the SD-WISE-28. Brief scales are necessary for use in large population-based studies and in clinical practice. The present study aimed to create an abbreviated 7-item version of the SD-WISE.
Method:
Participants included 2093 people, aged 20-82 years, recruited and surveyed through the online crowdsourcing platform Amazon Mechanical Turk. The participants’ mean age was 46 years, with 55% women. Participants completed the SD-WISE-28 as well as validation scales for various positive and negative constructs. Psychometric analyses (factor analysis and item response theory) were used to select one item from each of the seven SD-WISE-28 subscales.
Results:
We selected a combination of items that produced acceptable unidimensional model fit and good reliability (ω = 0.74). Item statistics suggested that all seven items were strong indicators of wisdom, although the association was weakest for spirituality. Analyses indicated that the 28-item and 7-item SD-WISE are both very highly correlated (r = 0.92) and produce a nearly identical pattern of correlations with demographic and validity variables.
Conclusion:
The SD-WISE-7, and its derived Jeste-Thomas Wisdom Index (JTWI) score, balances reliability and brevity for research applications.
Mars exploration motivates the search for extraterrestrial life, the development of space technologies, and the design of human missions and habitations. Here, we seek new insights and pose unresolved questions relating to the natural history of Mars, habitability, robotic and human exploration, planetary protection, and the impacts on human society. Key observations and findings include:
– high escape rates of early Mars' atmosphere, including loss of water, impact present-day habitability;
– putative fossils on Mars will likely be ambiguous biomarkers for life;
– microbial contamination resulting from human habitation is unavoidable; and
– based on Mars' current planetary protection category, robotic payload(s) should characterize the local martian environment for any life-forms prior to human habitation.
Some of the outstanding questions are:
– which interpretation of the hemispheric dichotomy of the planet is correct;
– to what degree did deep-penetrating faults transport subsurface liquids to Mars' surface;
– in what abundance are carbonates formed by atmospheric processes;
– what properties of martian meteorites could be used to constrain their source locations;
– the origin(s) of organic macromolecules;
– was/is Mars inhabited;
– how can missions designed to uncover microbial activity in the subsurface eliminate potential false positives caused by microbial contaminants from Earth;
– how can we ensure that humans and microbes form a stable and benign biosphere; and
– should humans relate to putative extraterrestrial life from a biocentric viewpoint (preservation of all biology), or anthropocentric viewpoint of expanding habitation of space?
Studies of Mars' evolution can shed light on the habitability of extrasolar planets. In addition, Mars exploration can drive future policy developments and confirm (or put into question) the feasibility and/or extent of human habitability of space.